Best NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Bets for the Black's Tire 200 at Rockingham

It's entirely possible my model is too low on Corey Heim for this week's NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race. But I also feel pretty strong in believing the market is too high.

For Friday night's race at Rockingham, my model has Heim at 20.9% to win. Given Heim has won 27.6% of all races since the start of last year and there are no Cup Series regulars in the field, the numbers are likely selling him short.

But Heim is +180 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Truck Series betting odds, translating to 35.7% implied odds. With this being the first race at Rockingham since 2013 -- and the track being repaved since then -- that's more certainty than I'm comfortable with.

Thus, I think the best answer is likely somewhere in the middle. This means we should be pickier with drivers who are values in my model, baking in the potential that Heim's being undervalued while still at least being receptive.

Prior to practice and qualifying, there are two drivers I'm willing to bet after accounting for the issue with Heim. Let's lay out the full simulations and then discuss my favorite bets as things stand.

NASCAR Truck Series Predictions for Rockingham

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Picks for Rockingham

• Ben Rhodes (+5500): Rhodes has finished top five recently in both Martinsville and Bristol, and he should be well-suited for a track like Rockingham. He can run well at tracks with unique shapes, evidenced by his pair of championships in Phoenix and his third-place run in Darlington last year. This seems like a good opportunity for him to get his first win since 2023.
• Stewart Friesen (+5500): Friesen's best upside the past few years has come on 1.5-mile tracks, and that's not Rockingham. However, his dirt background should allow him to adapt quickly to a setup most of the field hasn't run before. Although Friesen would have been in a better spot had the track not been repaved, I still think he should be shorter than +5500 given all the variance heading into tonight.

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Which drivers stand out to you tonight? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Truck Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.