Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix

For the first time this year, the NASCAR Cup Series is on a non-drafting oval.

It's about time.

As fun as road courses and superspeedways are, there's plenty of unpredictability there where a good bet can turn sour in the final few laps. At a place like Phoenix, with a lower incident rate, you can feel more secure if things look good late.

Even with things being more predictable, I'm still seeing most value in the mid-range this week in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. While I'm decently close to market up top, if we're looking for edges, it resides in the non-big dogs.

Who stands out most for betting before practice and qualifying?

First, you can see my model's simulations of the event. Then, we'll dig into which value I like most at FanDuel.

(UPDATE: The sims below have been updated post-qualifying.)

NASCAR Predictions for Phoenix

NASCAR Betting Picks for Phoenix

Brad Keselowski to Finish Top 5 (+500)

(UPDATE: Keselowski has since lengthened to +550 to finish top 5. He has also slid a bit in my model to the point where I'm no longer showing value even at the lengthened number.)

I'm about a percentage point above Brad Keselowski's implied win odds (3.7% vs. 2.6% at +3700), so you could bet him to win. Keselowski's track history at Phoenix is enough to push me to take the safe route with the top five.

That history is underwhelming for a driver who has had such a good career. Keselowski has never won here and has just nine top-fives. But 9 top-5s in 31 races is still a 29.0% hit rate, well above the 16.7% implied odds here.

My model has Keselowski below that career rate at 19.2%. That's still enough to clear the market, though, and I agree with what the model is saying.

Keselowski has shown upside on short tracks since RFK Racing started to surge in 2023. He had elite cars in both Richmond races that season (and was fifth in New Hampshire), and he was fourth in the spring Phoenix race last year. He added a podium in Gateway and a seventh-place average running position in the second Martinsville race.

I'm open to being more aggressive with Keselowski after we see cars on track. For now, I do think playing it safer with the top-five is the right way to go.

Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 5 (+800)

(UPDATE: Wallace has since lengthened to +1100 to finish top 5. This is a fairly massive value for me as I have Wallace at 15.9% to finish top 5. I also have value on him to win at +8500, and as we'll discuss below, to finish top 10 at +330.)

Between the two, Bubba Wallace is the bigger value this weekend, and his recent speed on short, flat tracks is the reason why.

During the Next-Gen era, this has sneakily been one of Wallace's better track types. He was third at New Hampshire in 2022 to kick start things. In 2023, he added top-10s at New Hampshire, Martinsville, and Phoenix.

Last year is where things took another step. Wallace had a top-eight average running position in both Richmond races -- a track he had historically struggled -- and finished fourth in Martinsville. He finished that off with a seventh-place run at the Championship Race in Phoenix.

Due to that form, I've got Wallace's top-five odds at 16.6%, up from 11.1% implied. Similar to Keselowski, I do have value on Wallace to win at +5500 -- he's actually the biggest outright value in the field -- but being five percentage points above market here pushes me to take the safer route again.

Mid-Week Addition: Alex Bowman to Finish Top 10 (+240)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since shortened to +210 to finish top 10. I'm no longer showing value at the shortened number.)

Alex Bowman is similar to Keselowski: Phoenix isn't his best track. That keeps me from taking the value I've got on him to win (+5500) or finish top five (+800). A top-10 seems doable, though.

In 19 career starts here, Bowman has just two top-10 finishes. One of those came in his first start in legit equipment back in 2016. Since then, his lone high-end run came in the 2023 spring race.

He's consistently at least decent, though, and this number clearly accounts for his track-specific struggles. Bowman tends to run well in both Martinsville and Richmond, two other short, flat tracks on the schedule. He should be good here, especially considering it is his home track.

The final factor pushing me toward Bowman is that NASCAR is running an option tire this weekend, adding extra tire falloff and strategy to the equation. Bowman tends to excel at slick tracks, and things could skew a bit more that way when they use the option tire. Thus, with my model pinning Bowman at 33.3%, up from 29.4% implied, I'm willing to bet him despite his middling track form.

Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Win (+850)

It's not often I get to see value on the pole-sitter at a short, flat track. No complaints here; I'm happy to add William Byron to my card.

In addition to winning the pole, Byron had good speed in practice. He had the sixth-best single-lap speed and was fifth in 10-lap average.

This is a good track for Byron. In six Next-Gen races at Phoenix, Byron has a win, two other top-four finishes, and three top-four average running positions. When you add that to the pace he has already shown, my model has Byron at 13.7% to win, easily clear his 10.5% implied odds.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Denny Hamlin to Win (+1600)

Although Denny Hamlin didn't have the same pace as Byron on Saturday, +1600 is too long for me to pass up.

Hamlin will roll off 10th and was just acceptable in practice. He was seventh in single-lap speed but was 18th in 10-lap average. Given teams were using both of the tire compounds outlined above, I don't want to overreact to practice times, even if they do go into the model.

Hamlin's speed was great on short, flat tracks last year. He won the first Richmond race and was second in the other, and he had a top-six average running position in the spring Phoenix and Martinsville races. Things tailed off toward the end of the year, but this is still a driver and team we want to buy into.

Based on my model, Hamlin's win odds should be +1192. Getting him at +1600 instead is a very nice discount.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 10 (+330)

It's a bummer the top-five number above has moved against us, but if you didn't buy into Wallace earlier, there's value across the board now.

Here's a comparison of where my model has Wallace versus where the market has him for each relevant market at FanDuel Sportsbook.

As a result, you can pick your poison, depending on your risk tolerance. With such great value on Byron and Hamlin to win -- and a top-five bet already outlined above -- the top-10 market is the one that makes most sense for me.

Wallace will start 19th but was 12th in single-lap speed and 6th in 10-lap average. As outlined above, that's in addition to quality form recently on these short, flat tracks. This is what leads to the model's enthusiasm.

Because betting markets tend to be efficient, it's important to second guess things when you're way above market. It's very possible I'm the one who's wrong rather than the sportsbook. In this instance, I think we're directionally in the right place, allowing me to add Wallace at a forgiving number.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.