Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Pennzoil 400 in Las Vegas

No NASCAR Cup Series driver has won four consecutive races since Jimmie Johnson in 2007.

This week, I hope Christopher Bell ends that drought.

Bell enters on a heater, having won at Atlanta, COTA, and Phoenix, three wildly different tracks. Las Vegas is another unique venue relative to what we've seen so far... but he's still the favorite in my model.

It's to the point where he's a value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. A big one.

That's always an uncomfortable spot to be in. Sportsbooks are good at what they do, so if you're off the market, it's more likely that you're the one who's wrong.

But given Bell is sitting around +400 in a bunch of other places, I'm okay with taking the discount FanDuel is supplying.

Let's start things off by looking at my model's pre-practice simulations, and then we'll dig into which initial bets I like at FanDuel Sportsbook.

NASCAR Predictions for Las Vegas

NASCAR Betting Picks for Las Vegas

Christopher Bell to Win (+600)

From the start of the 2023 playoffs on, Bell has been one of the guys to beat on 1.5-mile tracks. That should position him well for Las Vegas.

During those playoffs, after an issue in Kansas, Bell finished runner-up in Las Vegas and won Homestead. He carried that momentum into 2024, winning at Charlotte, tacking on another runner-up in Vegas, and posting a fifth-place average running position in Homestead.

Across the past four Vegas races, Bell has another fifth-place run in addition to those two runner-ups. He led 61 and 155 laps in the two second-place finishes, showing he has been a threat to win, even though he hasn't gotten it done yet.

Yes, it's a tall ask for a driver to win four straight. But given how different those tracks are, the model isn't really factoring those runs in. Thus, I agree that Bell is a quality value when you can get him at +600.

Riley Herbst to Finish Top 10 (+2200)

No matter how much we want to doubt Riley Herbst's abilities, a 23XI driver shouldn't be +2200 to finish top 10 at an equipment-centric track.

Herbst's teammates -- Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace -- are -490 and +125, respectively, to finish top 10 at FanDuel. The only driver with longer top-10 odds than Herbst is Cody Ware, who has never finished top 10 outside of Daytona in the Cup Series. Herbst is priced as back-marker, but I don't think he'll race that way Sunday.

Herbst's Xfinity Series breakout started here in Las Vegas. He won the 2023 playoff race and then followed that up with a runner-up in Homestead. Las year, he had top-five average running positions early in both Vegas and Texas, and he closed things out with decent runs in Vegas and Homestead in the playoffs.

It's not a shock that Herbst's first win came in Vegas. Not only was it arguably his best Xfinity track, but it's also his hometown. When you put him in a top-notch car in Cup, I'm more than willing to snag him +2200 just to finish top 10.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see which bets stand out to you.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.