Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Goodyear 400 in Darlington

The sponsor for this week's NASCAR Cup Series race in Darlington being Goodyear is hyper-appropriate.

Tires will be the talk of the town at a track that chews 'em up like no other. In order to win here, you have to be able to go fast without killing your rubber, not a skill all drivers possess.

I do think we can find betting value on at least a couple who have excelled at these setups in the past.

Let's run through my model's simulations of the race prior to practice and qualifying, and then we can lay out my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

(UPDATE: The sims below have been updated after practice and qualifying.)

NASCAR Predictions for Darlington

NASCAR Betting Picks for Darlington

William Byron to Win (+900)

(UPDATE: Byron has since shortened to +650 after he won the pole Saturday. This -- plus decent speed in practice -- has also pushed Byron up in my sims, though, to the point where he's still a value even at the shortened number. I'm way above market here, so I could be too high on him, but I do think he's a quality bet at +650.)

Selfishly, I'm pumped William Byron is a value for me this week. He's running a badass silver car as an homage to Jeff Gordon for NASCAR's throwback weekend, and that sucker would look sick in victory lane. Byron's a guy who can get it there.

Byron won this race two years ago and has generally been fast here during the Next Gen era. His worst average running position across six races is ninth, and he had a top-seven mark in both races last year.

We've seen him do this at other slick tracks, as well. He won Homestead in 2021 and podiumed in both Kansas and Charlotte last year, tracks where tire wear has increased in recent years.

While we tend to think first of Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick at this track, Byron has proven he belongs in the top tier. My model has him second behind Larson with 11.9% win odds, up from his implied odds of 10.0%.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+550)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since shortened to +500 to finish top five. Frankly, that's a bit odd because his speed Saturday was horrible. Thus, I no longer have him as a value, especially now that the market's higher on him now than it was earlier in the week.)

I'm always itchy to bet Alex Bowman at tracks with lots of tire falloff, and we can do so at a discount this weekend.

Since the start of last year, the NASCAR Cup Series has run 10 races at intermediate tracks with moderate-or-higher tire wear. Bowman has eight top-10s and two top-fives in that sample.

One of the top fives came two weeks ago in Homestead. He was actually leading with just a couple of laps left before he scraped the wall, ceding the win to Larson. He still finished second and had a fourth-place average running position.

Darlington hasn't been as kind to Bowman as other slick tracks, but he does have two top-10s here in the past four races. As a result, I don't mind if you want Bowman as a longshot winner at +3500 (I'm more than a percentage point above market there). He's a value for a top-five, as well, though, and this allows me to dodge bullets like Larson, Reddick, and Byron while still potentially cashing.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 10 (+155)

When you're a kid and you burn your hand on a hot stove, you learn not to touch hot stoves.

In theory, I've touched the Ty Gibbs hot stove enough to know it'll burn me. And yet, the hand is reaching out once again.

Gibbs enters Darlington 31st in the drivers standings thanks to a nightmare start to the season. It's not just bad luck, either; he has been genuinely slow at times, too.

This weekend has been somewhat encouraging. In addition to qualifying 11th, he was ninth in average speed across his 10 fastest laps in practice and 15th in the 20-lap split (after adjusting for group speed differentials). It's not amazing, but it'll do.

This should be a good track for Gibbs to shake out of his slump. He had a top-eight average running position in both races last year here, and he finished runner-up in one of them. I do show value on Gibbs across the board -- to win at +4400 and finish top 5 at +550 -- but I'll take the more forgiving market as the burn marks on my fingertips attempt to heal.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Noah Gragson to Finish Top 10 (+550)

I've got quite a bit of value on longer-shot top-10s this week. In addition to the two we'll discuss here, Daniel Suarez (+800) and Michael McDowell (+800) are potential outlets. These two are my favorites, though.

Let's start with Noah Gragson, a driver who excelled at Darlington and Homestead in the Xfinity Series. He was good at Homestead in Cup this year, too, boasting an 11th-place average running position.

Gragson ranked top-15 in both the 10- and 20-lap practice splits outlined above, so the long-run speed should be there despite his 26th-place starting position.

Post-Qualifying Addition: AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+650)

Similar to Gragson, AJ Allmendinger's Homestead pace should give us hope for this weekend.

Allmendinger ran up front all day there, converting a 10th-place average running position into a 7th-place finish. He had similar pace at Las Vegas the week before, so Kaulig Racing's intermediate package seems to have taken a step forward.

Allmendinger has historically been better at Homestead than Darlington, so it's not a perfect translation. He did, though, have a 14th-place average running position with Kaulig here in 2023, and their overall speed is better now. That's enough for me to bite on Dinger despite practice pace that didn't quite equal that of Gragson yesterday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.