Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Goodyear 400 in Darlington

The sponsor for this week's NASCAR Cup Series race in Darlington being Goodyear is hyper-appropriate.

Tires will be the talk of the town at a track that chews 'em up like no other. In order to win here, you have to be able to go fast without killing your rubber, not a skill all drivers possess.

I do think we can find betting value on at least a couple who have excelled at these setups in the past.

Let's run through my model's simulations of the race prior to practice and qualifying, and then we can lay out my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

NASCAR Predictions for Darlington

NASCAR Betting Picks for Darlington

William Byron to Win (+900)

Selfishly, I'm pumped William Byron is a value for me this week. He's running a badass silver car as an homage to Jeff Gordon for NASCAR's throwback weekend, and that sucker would look sick in victory lane. Byron's a guy who can get it there.

Byron won this race two years ago and has generally been fast here during the Next Gen era. His worst average running position across six races is ninth, and he had a top-seven mark in both races last year.

We've seen him do this at other slick tracks, as well. He won Homestead in 2021 and podiumed in both Kansas and Charlotte last year, tracks where tire wear has increased in recent years.

While we tend to think first of Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick at this track, Byron has proven he belongs in the top tier. My model has him second behind Larson with 11.9% win odds, up from his implied odds of 10.0%.

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+550)

I'm always itchy to bet Alex Bowman at tracks with lots of tire falloff, and we can do so at a discount this weekend.

Since the start of last year, the NASCAR Cup Series has run 10 races at intermediate tracks with moderate-or-higher tire wear. Bowman has eight top-10s and two top-fives in that sample.

One of the top fives came two weeks ago in Homestead. He was actually leading with just a couple of laps left before he scraped the wall, ceding the win to Larson. He still finished second and had a fourth-place average running position.

Darlington hasn't been as kind to Bowman as other slick tracks, but he does have two top-10s here in the past four races. As a result, I don't mind if you want Bowman as a longshot winner at +3500 (I'm more than a percentage point above market there). He's a value for a top-five, as well, though, and this allows me to dodge bullets like Larson, Reddick, and Byron while still potentially cashing.

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Which bets stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.