Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Food City 500 at Bristol

For this year's NASCAR Cup Series race at Bristol, it's hard to know what to expect.

Last spring's race was a madhouse with massive tire degradation and drivers having to pit every 40 to 50 laps.

The fall was a completely 180 with reduced wear and a dominant Kyle Larson victory.

What will we get this time around? Great question! Wish I knew.

It forces us to bake in some extra variance when trying to model the race, and it means I'd rather take some swipes at longshots with a path to win rather than place a larger bet on something deemed potentially more likely.

Luckily, FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds give us options for that. Let's dig into my model's pre-practice simulations and then discuss a couple long-ish-shot outrights I like early in the week.

(UPDATE: The sims have been updated after Saturday's practice and qualfying sessions.)

NASCAR Predictions for Bristol

NASCAR Betting Picks for Bristol

Chris Buescher to Win (+3200)

(UPDATE: Buescher has since lengthened to +3700 to win. He has also slipped in my sims and is no longer a value even at the longer number.)

You don't gotta dig back far to see Chris Buescher has the upside to win here. He did just that in the 2022 fall race, the first Next Gen Bristol race on concrete. I think he can do it again.

Buescher's form has been mixed at best, but he did show life last week. He turned an eighth-place average running position at Darlington into a sixth-place finish. Darlington and Bristol both feature high banking, so I don't mind putting stock into that run. Buescher was also fifth in Nashville last year, another concrete track on the schedule.

Bristol has long been a plus track for Buescher as he claimed his second career top five here as a rookie. I've got him a full percentage point above market, so I'm down to give him a spin again.

Josh Berry to Win (+3200)

(UPDATE: Berry has since lengthened to +3700 to win. He has also slipped in my sims and is no longer a value even at the longer number.)

Las Vegas isn't a comp track for Bristol, so Josh Berry's win there doesn't matter. It does, though, show he has speed, and that's enticing for a former short-track ace.

Berry made his name dominating the CARS Tour, a late-model stock series that races at short tracks. That earned him Xfinity Series rides with JR Motorsports, where he won at Martinsville in 2021 before turning full-time in 2022. He won at Dover that year, the other high-banked concrete track in NASCAR. He was runner-up at Dover the year after.

Bristol hasn't been as good as Dover for Berry, but the overlap should be there. Historically, my model has been below market on Berry as he wasn't someone who dominated in the Xfinity Series. Thus, I find it extra interesting that it has him at 4.6% to win, up from 3.0% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Denny Hamlin to Win (+460)

With all the attention on Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin's Saturday speed has flown under the radar. That makes him a value in my sims.

Larson was in Group A during practice. Track conditions were much faster for that group than Group B, creating a bigger delta between the two groups than usual.

Hamlin was in Group B, and as a result, he ranked just 11th in consecutive 10-lap average. My model, though, looks at the average of a driver's 10 fastest laps in practice and then adjusts for the group the driver was in. By that metric, Hamlin was second in the 10-lap split (behind just Larson) and third in the 20-lap split.

Hamlin backed that up by qualifying fourth. Once you combine that with his elite form on concrete tracks -- and Bristol, specifically -- it has him at 19.0% to win, up from 17.9% implied. That's a big enough gap for me to bet on Hamlin to win his third straight race.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Noah Gragson to Finish Top 10 (+650)

Noah Gragson is another driver who was fast in practice, giving me faith he can pick his way forward from a 31st-place starting position.

Gragson was sixth in my model's 10-lap split and 13th in the 20-lap version. This could mean he'll experience greater tire wear than others, which would be a concern. I don't want to overreact to one data point, though.

Gragson has been good on concrete both in Xfinity and the Cup Series. He won Bristol in Xfinity in 2022 with top-fives in both Nashville and Dover, and he finished sixth at Dover in Cup last year. As a result, I've got him at 17.7% to finish top 10, up from 13.3% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+1700)

For Zane Smith, the practice speed wasn't really there. He was 34th in my model's 20-lap split and 22nd in the 10-lap. It's just that this is a big number for an unpredictable race.

Smith's form has been good now that he's back with Front Row Motorsports. He was 12th in Darlington with a 14th-place average running position. That bodes well if we see massive tire wear today. He was 16th in Bristol's fall race last year with Spire.

In five Truck Series races on concrete since the start of 2022, Smith has three runner-ups and a third-place finish. Even ignoring his runner-up at Nashville in Cup last year (fuel mileage got him there, not speed), my model has him at 9.6% for a top-10, up from 5.6% implied.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.