Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at COTA

After two weeks on drafting tracks, the dynamic shifts dramatically this week for the NASCAR Cup Series.

They're headed to Circuit of the Americas in Austin, a 2.3-mile road course also used in Formula 1 (though F1 uses the 3.4-mile setup of the track, as did the Cup Series the first three times it ran here. They'll shift to the shorter version for 2025).

On top of a radically different track type, we have two hyper-fun names set to contend: Shane Van Gisbergen and Connor Zilisch.

Van Gisbergen won his NASCAR debut at the Chicago street course in 2023. This will be his first road course as a full-time Cup driver, and he'll do it in great equipment with Trackhouse Racing.

As for Zilisch, he'll also drive for Trackhouse, but it's his Cup debut. He's only 18 years old, but he already has a win in the 24 Hours at Daytona and at Watkins Glen in the Xfinity Series on his resume. Last year in a Craftsman Truck Series race at this track, he won the pole, blew the opening corner, got a penalty later, and still managed to finish fourth.

He fast.

That's why Zilisch is +800 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for COTA. Even though my model is high on Zilisch -- giving 1.5% win odds to an 18-year-old making his Cup debut with just 12 Truck or Xfinity starts under his belt is absurd -- I'm still nowhere near market. It's entirely possible I'm too low on him.

With that caveat in mind, here are my model's simulations prior to practice and qualifying. Unlike the past two weeks, these will update big time after qualifying, and I'll circle back and post updated sims Sunday morning. Then, we'll run through the bets I like below.

NASCAR Cup Series at COTA Predictions

Betting Picks for NASCAR at COTA

Ty Gibbs to Win (+2100)

My model is showing value on a driver who won his Xfinity Series debut as an 18-year-old on a road course; it's just not Zilisch.

Instead, it's Ty Gibbs, who has 89 starts in Cup versus Zilisch's zero.

Gibbs -- now in his age-22 season -- is still hunting for his first win, but he has been close a bunch on road courses. In 11 cracks as a full-time driver, he has six top-10s, four top-fives, and three podiums. One of those podiums came at this track last year (though in the other configuration).

Gibbs combines raw talent with elite equipment and enough experience where he should break out soon. I've got him at 6.1%, up from 4.6% implied, and I agree with the model that he's undervalued.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+750)

The gap between Zane Smith's implied odds to finish top 10 -- 11.8% -- and where I've got him -- 12.8% -- isn't that large. I have a bigger edge on Ryan Preece at +1500.

I just like Smith's talent, and I think this setup could put him in a good spot.

In the Truck Series in 2022 and 2023, Smith ran five road-course races. His finishes -- in order -- were 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd. The two wins just so happened to come here at COTA.

Last year with Spire, Smith finished top 20 in all five road course races. His best output came at Watkins Glen when he finished fifth.

That's key for this week. NASCAR will run a tire that's intended to feature more tire falloff, which they also did for that Watkins Glen race. Given tire degradation was important when Smith won at COTA in Trucks, as well, he could thrive.

That's why I'm willing to bite on Smith despite not showing a ton of value. I think it's possible the model is underrating him, and with it already being above market, he is a quality bet in my eyes.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.