Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at COTA

After two weeks on drafting tracks, the dynamic shifts dramatically this week for the NASCAR Cup Series.

They're headed to Circuit of the Americas in Austin, a 2.3-mile road course also used in Formula 1 (though F1 uses the 3.4-mile setup of the track, as did the Cup Series the first three times it ran here. They'll shift to the shorter version for 2025).

On top of a radically different track type, we have two hyper-fun names set to contend: Shane Van Gisbergen and Connor Zilisch.

Van Gisbergen won his NASCAR debut at the Chicago street course in 2023. This will be his first road course as a full-time Cup driver, and he'll do it in great equipment with Trackhouse Racing.

As for Zilisch, he'll also drive for Trackhouse, but it's his Cup debut. He's only 18 years old, but he already has a win in the 24 Hours at Daytona and at Watkins Glen in the Xfinity Series on his resume. Last year in a Craftsman Truck Series race at this track, he won the pole, blew the opening corner, got a penalty later, and still managed to finish fourth.

He fast.

That's why Zilisch is +800 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for COTA. Even though my model is high on Zilisch -- giving 1.5% win odds to an 18-year-old making his Cup debut with just 12 Truck or Xfinity starts under his belt is absurd -- I'm still nowhere near market. It's entirely possible I'm too low on him.

With that caveat in mind, here are my model's simulations prior to practice and qualifying. Unlike the past two weeks, these will update big time after qualifying, and I'll circle back and post updated sims Sunday morning. Then, we'll run through the bets I like below.

UPDATE: The simulations below have been updated after practice and qualifying.

NASCAR Cup Series at COTA Predictions

Betting Picks for NASCAR at COTA

Ty Gibbs to Win (+2100)

(UPDATE: Gibbs has since lengthened to +3300 to win. Due to middling speed on Saturday, my model now has him even lower than that at 1.7%. Thus, unfortunately, I wouldn't bet him now even at the lengthened number.)

My model is showing value on a driver who won his Xfinity Series debut as an 18-year-old on a road course; it's just not Zilisch.

Instead, it's Ty Gibbs, who has 89 starts in Cup versus Zilisch's zero.

Gibbs -- now in his age-22 season -- is still hunting for his first win, but he has been close a bunch on road courses. In 11 cracks as a full-time driver, he has six top-10s, four top-fives, and three podiums. One of those podiums came at this track last year (though in the other configuration).

Gibbs combines raw talent with elite equipment and enough experience where he should break out soon. I've got him at 6.1%, up from 4.6% implied, and I agree with the model that he's undervalued.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+750)

(UPDATE: Smith has since shortened to +600 to finish top 10. Similar to Gibbs, Smith moved down the list for me Saturday, and I've now got him at 8.3% to finish top 10. Thus, I would not bet him at the shortened number.)

The gap between Zane Smith's implied odds to finish top 10 -- 11.8% -- and where I've got him -- 12.8% -- isn't that large. I have a bigger edge on Ryan Preece at +1500.

I just like Smith's talent, and I think this setup could put him in a good spot.

In the Truck Series in 2022 and 2023, Smith ran five road-course races. His finishes -- in order -- were 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd. The two wins just so happened to come here at COTA.

Last year with Spire, Smith finished top 20 in all five road course races. His best output came at Watkins Glen when he finished fifth.

That's key for this week. NASCAR will run a tire that's intended to feature more tire falloff, which they also did for that Watkins Glen race. Given tire degradation was important when Smith won at COTA in Trucks, as well, he could thrive.

That's why I'm willing to bite on Smith despite not showing a ton of value. I think it's possible the model is underrating him, and with it already being above market, he is a quality bet in my eyes.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Shane Van Gisbergen to Win (+450)

I will be honest: I didn't expect to see value on Van Gisbergen this weekend, especially not after he hung blistering times in practice. But the model adores him now that it has all of this information, and I'm well above market.

I've got SVG at 28.9% to win, up from 18.2% implied. It's very possible that's too high, but Van Gisbergen led both practice sessions and seemed decent on longer runs, as well. Given his familiarity with a COTA layout similar to this one, that's not a huge surprise.

Van Gisbergen will start sixth, but that's partly a product of the qualifying format. The track seemed to be faster for the second group, and they'll occupy the first four spots. Van Gisbergen was second of his group. He shouldn't have a hard time getting to the front.

The model may be too high on SVG, but I don't think that's the case here. Thus, I'm happy to take the value and bet on one of the favorites.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Michael McDowell to Finish Top 10 (+240)

(UPDATE: McDowell has since shortened to +180. Those 35.7% implied odds are below where my model has him, so this is still a value for me.)

Historically, COTA has been Michael McDowell's worst road course. It's possible the new configuration has helped him, though, and I think +240 for a top 10 is a great price.

McDowell was 8th and 13th in the two practice sessions, after you adjust for speed differentials between the two groups. That allows me some ease as he qualified just 16th despite being in the faster of the two qualifying groups.

In 17 Next-Gen races on road courses, McDowell has 10 top-10 finishes. None of them have come in COTA, but he was 13th in one race and 12th in another. Thus, I don't want to over-weight course-fit concerns, especially with the new layout.

My model has McDowell at 40.5% to finish top 10, up from 29.4% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Alex Bowman to Finish Top 10 (+100)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since shortened to -170 to finish top 10. The new implied odds there are 63.0%, so the value here has dried up.)

Alex Bowman will start 21st, but he had a similar issue to SVG: he was in the slower qualifying group. His practice pace makes him a value here.

Bowman ranked second and fifth in the two sessions. That shouldn't a be a huge surprise: his worst finish the past three years at COTA is fourth.

Additionally, Bowman won Chicago, so he's generally a good road-racer. That means the new layout doesn't bother me much.

Bowman has always excelled on tracks with lots of tire degradation, which may be what we see here. Thus, I am on board with the model pinning him at 53.6%, enough to make him a value at even money.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.