Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte

During the Next-Gen era, Charlotte has been a delight of a track.

Two of the three races featured 30-plus lead changes, and the other had 21 despite being shortened by rain. There have been comers, goers, crashes, and chaos -- something for every kind of fan.

Although that leads to some uncertainty in terms of predictions, we can still find value in drivers who have run well on similar tracks this year in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

Which drivers stand out before practice and qualifying? Let's start by laying out my model's pre-practice simulations of the race, and then we can discuss initial bets I like.

(UPDATE: The sims have been updated post-qualifying.)

NASCAR in Charlotte Predictions

Betting Picks for NASCAR in Charlotte

Alex Bowman to Win (+2200)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since shortened to +2100 to win. He's now even higher in my sims after practice and qualifying, and Bowman is the best outright bet on the board for me.)

Alex Bowman is at his best at tracks where tire wear matters. That has become more and more true at Charlotte the past couple of years, putting him in a spot where he could spike upside.

The Cup Series has run three races at non-short tracks where tire wear has mattered this year: Homestead, Darlington, and Kansas. Bowman was runner-up in Homestead and finished fifth in Kansas but failed to finish in Darlington. Those are his lone two top-fives this year.

Bowman had good pace on this track type last year, too, as he was top-seven in both Kansas races and fifth in Las Vegas. He finished ninth in Charlotte with a seventh-place average running position, tied for his second-best mark at the track.

If you're skeptical of Bowman's upside -- an understandable take -- I do show value in him to finish top 5 at +320. I don't mind swinging for the fences, though, given the speed Bowman showed at Homestead and Kansas.

Austin Cindric to Finish Top 5 (+700)

(UPDATE: Cindric has since shortened to +550. However, due to quality speed in practice, Cindric's still a value for me there, and he's also a value to win at +3700 and finish top 10 at +170. Cindric's my second favorite outright on the board behind Bowman.)

It has been a rough week for the Cindric family. Austin Cindric's father, Tim, was fired from Team Penske's IndyCar operations following rules violations during qualifying for the Indianapolis 500. I'm hoping it can light a fire under Austin's butt because he's a quality value for me.

After absolutely hideous results on intermediate tracks last year, Cindric seems to have turned a corner in 2025. Across five races, his worst average running position is 15th, and he has been 11th or better three times. One of them was converted into a sixth-place finish in Las Vegas.

This has similar vibes to Cindric in the Xfinity Series. There, he struggled on ovals each of his first two full-time seasons. Then, in 2020 and 2021, something clicked, and Cindric broke out with 11 victories across the two seasons. I'm not convinced we'll see something as drastic here, but he's absolutely improved, and the sample on it keeps growing.

Due to the increased pace, I have Cindric at 17.2% to finish top 5, up from 12.5% implied. I've also got value on him to win (+4400) or finish top 10 (+200), but I like the big gap between me and the market here.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+850)

(UPDATE: Smith has since shortened to +700 to finish top 10. Even though he lost a bit of ground for me after practice and qualifying, I'm still above market on Smith and would be willing to bet him at +700.)

Zane Smith drives for a team that receives support from Team Penske, so it's probably not a coincidence that he has also run well on intermediates this year.

Across the five races, Smith has four finishes of 17th or better, including an 11th in Homestead. His best run came two weeks ago in Kansas when he posted a 12th-place average running position, showing he can handle a track with increased tire degradation.

The uptick for Smith started last year in his latter races with Spire Motorsports. During the playoffs, he finished 10th in Kansas and 16th in Las Vegas. Given the talent he showed in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series, this return to form shouldn't be all that surprising.

I'm pretty far above market on Smith as the model has him at 18.1% to finish top 10, up from 10.5% implied. He also could be worth a sniff as a longshot as I've got him three percentage points above his implied odds at +2600 for a top 5.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Noah Gragson to Finish Top 5 (+1700); Gragson to Finish Top 10 (+470)

After flashing top-notch speed on Saturday, Noah Gragson is a value across the board to me, including to win at +10000. Thus, I want to take a laddered approach in case he can spike upside.

That pace for Gragson was present in both practice and qualifying. In practice, the average speed of his 10 fastest laps ranked sixth (after minor group speed adjustments), and he was fifth in the 20-lap split. He parlayed that into a quality qualifying run and will start eighth.

Although Gragson's best finish on an intermediate track this year is 14th, he has had better speed. He had an 11th-place average running position in Homestead, another multi-groove track with tire falloff. Given how good he was on these tracks in the Xfinity Series, that shouldn't be a surprise.

What I'd want to do here is take my typical bet size and split it up, putting the majority on the lowest-upside market with a bit more on an aggressive one. Here, those will be the top-10 and the top-5 markets, but the outright is definitely tempting as a pure longshot.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+550)

Daniel Suarez already has top-10s this year in both Vegas and Texas, so it's a bit surprising to see his odds this long.

This shape of track has been good to Suarez in the Next-Gen era. In four races at Texas, his worst finish is 12th, and he had a chance to win the 2022 Charlotte race before an incident. He had a 13th-place average running position in last year's rain-shortened 600.

Suarez's long-run speed was decent on Saturday. He ranked 15th in the average speed of his 20 fastest laps. Thus, I'd expect him to be able to rise from a 25th-place starting position.

Similar to Gragson, I've got value on Suarez across the board. I'm just not quite as sold on his upside, funneling me to just the lone bet on Suarez to finish top 10.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Erik Jones to Finish Top 10 (+850)

This is a pretty generous number from FanDuel, and it leaves me nearly twice as high on Erik Jones as his implied odds.

Jones was fast in practice on Saturday. He was 12th in the 10-lap split and 14th in the 20-lap version. He qualified 27th, which is understandable given his qualifying lap was early and the track sped up throughout the session.

Legacy Motor Club's speed on these tracks has been much better this year, as evidenced by Jones' fifth-place finish in Texas. He's someone who runs best as tire wear increases, which is what we've seen at this track of late.

All told, I've got Jones around 20% for a top 10, and his implied odds are closer to 10%. I'm happy to take the discount and buy in after what he did on Saturday.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.