Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Ambetter Health 400 in Atlanta

Although both Atlanta and Daytona involve drafting, this week's stop for the NASCAR Cup Series does involve some key differences.

First, handling matters more, leading to more strung-out packs throughout the race.

Second -- which is partly attributable to the first point -- the incident rate is lower. While it's still higher than most tracks, drivers are less likely to be involved in a crash here than Daytona, leading to fewer long-shots threatening for a win.

In fact, in six races at the reconfigured Atlanta, only three different teams -- Hendrick, Penske, and Trackhouse -- have won. It's more top-heavy, meaning you'll see higher-end win probability numbers here than last week's opener.

Still, at least in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds, I think there's value in some longshots.

Below, you can see my model's simulations of this race entering the weekend. Then, we'll dig into which bets I like this week based on those numbers.

NASCAR Cup Series Atlanta Predictions

NASCAR Betting Picks for Atlanta

Alex Bowman to Win (+3000)

Alex Bowman's track record in the draft during the Next-Gen era is too good for his betting odds to be this long.

He has run 18 pack races since the start of 2022. In that time, Bowman has 4 top-5s and 8 top-10s. Two of those top-10s have come in Atlanta, including a fifth-place run last year.

In that one, Bowman ran up front all race, finished third in both stages, and had a fifth-place average running position. It was a new approach as the Hendrick cars don't tend to dominate drafting tracks, but it did work well there. He followed it up with a sixth-place finish last week in Daytona.

My model has Bowman at 4.8% to win, up from 3.2% implied. Although he has never won a pack race, he has been runner-up twice. I think he has the upside to break through here.

Todd Gilliland to Win (+4100)

Todd Gilliland was the man to beat in this race last year. Thus, I'm showing value on him both to win and finish top five (+550), but the outright provides us a bigger edge.

In the 2024 spring race, Gilliland led a race-high 58 laps. His ninth-place average running position was third-best of all drivers, trailing only Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric. He got caught up in a crash with 20 laps left, torpedoing his day.

That has been a theme for Gilliland at these tracks: run well, snag stage points, get caught up in someone's mess. This could mean Gilliland can't hang when the intensity ratchets up, but I don't think the sample on him in quality superspeedway equipment is large enough to say that yet.

Thus, I'm inclined to agree with the model that Gilliland is undervalued. I've got him at 4.1% to win, a healthy bit above his 2.4% implied odds.

Noah Gragson to Finish Top 5 (+1100)

Now that he's Gilliland's teammate, we know Noah Gragson will have a rocketship this weekend. I like snagging him as a longshot for a top five.

Even last year with Stewart-Haas Racing, Gragson was solid in the draft. He finished third in Talladega and ninth in Daytona early in the season. He was also 12th in Atlanta in 2023, a year where nothing went well for him.

This comes after Gragson was a threat in the draft in the Xfinity Series. He won Talladega in 2022 and Daytona in 2020 with handful of other top-fives inbetween. He led 37 and 38 laps in the two races he ran at the reconfigured Atlanta, as well.

Blend it all together, and my model has Gragson in the top five 9.4% of the time, up from 8.3% implied. That's a big enough edge for me to bite.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.