Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Ambetter Health 400 in Atlanta

Although both Atlanta and Daytona involve drafting, this week's stop for the NASCAR Cup Series does involve some key differences.

First, handling matters more, leading to more strung-out packs throughout the race.

Second -- which is partly attributable to the first point -- the incident rate is lower. While it's still higher than most tracks, drivers are less likely to be involved in a crash here than Daytona, leading to fewer long-shots threatening for a win.

In fact, in six races at the reconfigured Atlanta, only three different teams -- Hendrick, Penske, and Trackhouse -- have won. It's more top-heavy, meaning you'll see higher-end win probability numbers here than last week's opener.

Still, at least in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds, I think there's value in some longshots.

Below, you can see my model's simulations of this race entering the weekend. Then, we'll dig into which bets I like this week based on those numbers.

NASCAR Cup Series Atlanta Predictions

NASCAR Betting Picks for Atlanta

Alex Bowman to Win (+3000)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since shortened to +2800. I'm still more than fine with that as a value, and he is currently the biggest value on the board by my numbers.)

Alex Bowman's track record in the draft during the Next-Gen era is too good for his betting odds to be this long.

He has run 18 pack races since the start of 2022. In that time, Bowman has 4 top-5s and 8 top-10s. Two of those top-10s have come in Atlanta, including a fifth-place run last year.

In that one, Bowman ran up front all race, finished third in both stages, and had a fifth-place average running position. It was a new approach as the Hendrick cars don't tend to dominate drafting tracks, but it did work well there. He followed it up with a sixth-place finish last week in Daytona.

My model has Bowman at 4.8% to win, up from 3.2% implied. Although he has never won a pack race, he has been runner-up twice. I think he has the upside to break through here.

Todd Gilliland to Win (+4100)

(UPDATE: Gilliland has since shortened to +3000 to win. I'm still showing value there -- his new implied odds are 3.2%, and I have him at 4.1% -- but I do prefer Bowman in the same range if you're picking just one outright to bet.)

Todd Gilliland was the man to beat in this race last year. Thus, I'm showing value on him both to win and finish top five (+550), but the outright provides us a bigger edge.

In the 2024 spring race, Gilliland led a race-high 58 laps. His ninth-place average running position was third-best of all drivers, trailing only Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric. He got caught up in a crash with 20 laps left, torpedoing his day.

That has been a theme for Gilliland at these tracks: run well, snag stage points, get caught up in someone's mess. This could mean Gilliland can't hang when the intensity ratchets up, but I don't think the sample on him in quality superspeedway equipment is large enough to say that yet.

Thus, I'm inclined to agree with the model that Gilliland is undervalued. I've got him at 4.1% to win, a healthy bit above his 2.4% implied odds.

Noah Gragson to Finish Top 5 (+1100)

(UPDATE: Gragson has since shortened to +750 to finish top 5. I agree with this movement, but he has moved to a point where he is no longer a value for me. I have him at 9.4% versus 11.8% implied.)

Now that he's Gilliland's teammate, we know Noah Gragson will have a rocketship this weekend. I like snagging him as a longshot for a top five.

Even last year with Stewart-Haas Racing, Gragson was solid in the draft. He finished third in Talladega and ninth in Daytona early in the season. He was also 12th in Atlanta in 2023, a year where nothing went well for him.

This comes after Gragson was a threat in the draft in the Xfinity Series. He won Talladega in 2022 and Daytona in 2020 with handful of other top-fives inbetween. He led 37 and 38 laps in the two races he ran at the reconfigured Atlanta, as well.

Blend it all together, and my model has Gragson in the top five 9.4% of the time, up from 8.3% implied. That's a big enough edge for me to bite.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Chris Buescher to Win (+2500)

For this final outright slot, I was torn between Chris Buescher and William Byron (+2200). Buescher's the bigger value, by my numbers, but I think the model is lower on Byron than it should be. Thus, I don't mind if you want both. But with two mid-week outrights on the card for me already, I'll rock with just Buescher here, thus guaranteeing victory for Byron.

The case for Buescher -- in my eyes -- is strong. He's a good pack racer, highlighted by his win in Daytona in 2023. In 19 pack races during the Next-Gen era, he has two other top-fives in addition to that win with seven total top-10s. Two of those top-10 runs have come here in Atlanta.

The reason I wound up siding with Buescher over Byron is Ford's speed. They occupied nine of the top 10 slots in qualifying, a group that will include Buescher as he rolls off eighth. As we saw in the Truck and Xfinity races on Saturday, that raw power is tougher to overcome here than at Daytona, so I do think it matters at least to an extent.

My model has Buescher at 4.9% to win, up from 3.9% implied. He and Bowman are the only drivers on whom I'm a full percentage point above market as things stand.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.