Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro

Given the unique format, the NASCAR All-Star Race is a tough one to predict.

Thus, we should proceed with caution when trying to bet it as there's more variance than usual. It's a fun event, though, and one I'm still willing to bet when I think there's good value.

I do think we have that for this weekend's festivities in North Wilkesboro.

That's not limited to just the main event, either. FanDuel Sportsbook has odds for the All-Star Open in their NASCAR betting odds, as well, and my favorite bet of the week actually comes from there.

Let's start with that race, lay out my model's pre-qualifying simulations for The Open and the one bet I like. Then, we'll transition to the main event.

One note for The Main is that the win probabilities won't add up to 100%. That's because three drivers will transition from The Open to The Main, and they can win the race. I've projected it as a "worst-case scenario," which would mean the three strongest Open cars advance. It could lead to undervaluging some of the locked-in drivers, but I'd rather do that and avoid a bet than lock in a bad bet because I wasn't allocating enough win equity to Open cars.

NASCAR All-Star Open Predictions

NASCAR All-Star Open Betting Picks

Bubba Wallace to Win (+350)

I'm waaaaaaaay off market on Bubba Wallace, so maybe I'm a donkey here. But by my numbers, he's easily the class of the field.

Wallace has been superb in North Wilkesboro. He was runner-up in 2023, advanced via The Open last year, and raced his way forward to a sixth-place finish.

This isn't a surprise with how well he has run on short, flat tracks recently. Wallace finished third and had a fourth-place average running position in Martinsville, and he had top-fives in both Richmond and Martinsville last year, too.

If Wallace is in second place, there's no guarantee he gets aggressive for the win as that spot also advances. That's partly what happened to him last year, so the model is likely too high on him. I do feel pretty firm, though, that +350 is underselling how good he is relative to the rest of this field.

NASCAR All-Star Race Predictions

NASCAR All-Star Race Betting Picks

Chase Briscoe to Win (+2000)

Chase Briscoe finished fourth here in 2023 and has generally been at his best on short, flat tracks. He's a good value here.

Briscoe's first Cup Series win came at Phoenix -- a short, flat track -- back in 2022. Since then, he has added another top-five at Phoenix plus two in Martinsville and one in New Hampshire. He finished fourth at Bristol this year, which isn't flat but is short.

Most of Briscoe's quality runs on this track type came with Stewart-Haas Racing. Now that he's with Joe Gibbs Racing, his upside is even higher, and I think the best is still to come. Thus, I'm not going to fight the model too much as it puts Briscoe at 5.9% to win, up from 4.8% implied.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.