Best Home Run Bet for Today: FanDuel Daily Dinger Pick for Monday, August 31, 2026

Daily Dinger Home Run Pick

• Jackson Merrill (+300)

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For today, who should you pick to hit a home run?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. This HR pick is taken from today’s home run picks article. Click here to find it as well our other MLB betting content.

Best Home Run Pick Today, Daily Dinger

Home Run Prediction: Jackson Merrill (+300)

Padres at Reds, 6:41 p.m. ET

Jackson Merrill gets a huge park-factor bump today in Cincy, and I’m intrigued by his matchup with Brady Singer.

Singer has given up at least three earned runs in seven consecutive outings, and he’s surrendered a .376 wOBA and 2.00 jacks per nine to left-handed hitters this season.

Merrill’s career has been trending downward since his breakout rookie campaign. However, he’s still launched 22 dingers this year and owns a 41.5% fly-ball rate. Of his 22 tanks, 14 have come on the road and 18 have come with the platoon advantage — two boxes that are checked today.

To make things even better, once Singer is out of the game, Merrill will see a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that is dead last in xFIP this campaign (4.84).

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.