So far, the entire Las Vegas Grand Prix weekend has been dominated by Mercedes.

They topped the timesheets in all three practice sessions, and then George Russell put himself on pole in qualifying, as well.

The question is how much we should believe it.

On the one hand, this pace makes sense because Mercedes has performed better in cooler temperatures this year, and we get that in Vegas.

On the other, they entered with much slower race pace than both Ferrari and McLaren, and that form matters, as well.

So, after considering these factors, what should we expect to happen tonight?

Here's my model's simulations of the race. Then below that, we'll go through which bets I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's F1 betting odds.

(UPDATE: The sims have been re-run with Franco Colapinto scheduled to start from pit lane.)

F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix Prediction

Best Bets for the F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix

• Carlos Sainz to Win (+230): I, personally, am higher on Mercedes after what they showed, but the model remains skeptical. So much so that it's showing Sainz seven percentage points above his implied odds. Sainz will start second and enters having just snagged victory two races ago in Mexico. He and Russell should be able to dominate things early, and I have enough faith in Ferrari's race pace to ride with Sainz.
• Lewis Hamilton to Podium (+850): This is partly a hedge against the Ferrari love and partly just a bet my sims like. I've got Hamilton at 11.6% to podium, up from 10.5% implied. That's mostly because his grid position -- 10th -- doesn't represent his speed. If he had duplicated his Q2 lap in Q3, he'd be starting third, so my model is effectively treating this like a grid penalty. Overtakes aren't all that difficult here, so this gets me exposure to Mercedes at longer odds.
  • UPDATE: Hamilton has since shortened to +650 to finish on the podium. That puts his implied odds up to 13.3%, and he's at 12.0% for me after the re-run, meaning I no longer show value in Hamilton here. I do, though, show value in him to finish top 6 at -130, in case you still want Hamilton exposure.
• Kevin Magnussen to Score Points (+160): We talked about K-Mag in the pre-practice Las Vegas Grand Prix predictions, so if you bet him there, I wouldn't double-up. But the model's still high on him despite a 12th-place starting spot, so if he's not yet on your card, I don't mind him at these odds.

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Which drivers stand out to you tonight in Vegas? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest F1 betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.