Best Bets and Darkhorse Picks to Win the NASCAR In-Season Challenge

It's very possible the favorites in the inaugural NASCAR In-Season Challenge win it all.

William Byron (+550 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds), Denny Hamlin (+550), and Kyle Larson (+650) are all strong in the championship round in Indianapolis and rate out well in my model. In fact, if I pick the higher-ranked driver in each matchup based on my model, Larson would be the winner.

That doesn't make them the best betting values, though. Not in a tournament with as much chaos as this one could have.

Instead, if I want to find a driver I think is a good bet, I have to dip all the way down to +1500.

Let's run through three drivers who stand out as potential betting values for this tourney and why I'm on them.

Coincidentally, two of them come from the same camp. Team Penske is in a good spot for this shindig.

Best NASCAR In-Season Challenge Bets

Ryan Blaney to Win (+1500)

When I was looking at the initial bracket, I thought Ryan Blaney would be a popular pick to win. The betting odds say otherwise, and I think it makes Blaney a value.

Part of that could be Blaney's brutal path, beginning in the second round. Should both he and Larson win in the opening round, they'd face off in Round 2 at the Chicago street course. And even if Larson loses, it'd be Tyler Reddick -- another skilled road-racer -- instead. Blaney will be an underdog in the second round regardless.

But he's at least not a dud on road courses, sitting 13th and 14th in my rankings (among the 32 drivers in the In-Season Challenge) for Chicago and Sonoma, respectively. Crazy things can happen there, so it's not a lock that Reddick or Larson would beat him out.

Should Blaney win there, it seems likely he'd face Byron in the third round at Sonoma, and Byron is another great road racer. So Blaney's draw is tough.

There's no lock that Byron gets there, though, as I have him at 58.3% to win in Round 1. Meanwhile, Blaney has the highest odds there at 68.7%.

The bracket surely broke against Blaney, which is why his odds are longer. But he's the fourth-ranked driver in my model (which assigns heavier weight to earlier rounds when everyone is still in play), and the only guys ahead of him are Larson, Byron, and Christopher Bell. He's got the juice to win this at +1500.

Joey Logano to Win (+2100)

Joey Logano's path is much easier than Blaney's. In those aforementioned rankings, Logano is seventh. That makes him the highest-ranked driver in his quadrant of the bracket.

The stiffest competition Logano could face until the semifinal would be the 1 seed, Denny Hamlin. But Hamlin has struggled on pack tracks in the Next-Gen era, so there's no guarantee he wins Round 1 (though I have his odds there at 64.4%).

After that are a pair of road courses, and Hamlin has struggled there of late, as well. Logano's no road ringer, but he is ranked above Hamlin for both Chicago and Sonoma. Hamlin's ranked ninth overall for me despite ranking top-two for both Dover and Indy as he'll face key obstacles in getting there.

Overall, the earliest Logano could face a top-five-ranked driver for me is in the semifinal against Christopher Bell. But again, Bell's only 51.5% to survive Round 1. Logano could go to the championship without having faced a stiff test.

Logano's not good on road courses, so there's a reason he's +2100. But the bracket broke in his favor, and I don't think the betting odds are accounting for that enough.

Ty Gibbs to Win (+5000)

When I picked winners just based on my round-by-round rankings, Ty Gibbs wound up in the semifinals. His section of the bracket is relatively light, and he excels on road courses, so +5000 is tough to pass up, even with his inconsistencies.

Gibbs lucked out a bit early as Atlanta is likely to be his worst track of the bunch. He'll face Justin Haley in the opener, and while Haley is a skilled pack racer, his equipment isn't nearly on Gibbs' level. Haley's skills push Gibbs' odds to win the opener down to 50.3% -- the closest matchup of the round -- meaning Gibbs could be out early.

Should he win, though, he'll be in a good spot for both Chicago and Sonoma. Yes, he will face another road-course ace in either Michael McDowell or AJ Allmendinger at Chicago, but Gibbs has the upside to beat them. And he'd definitely have the edge should he make it to Sonoma.

Dover has been good to Gibbs with two top-13 finishes there in his Cup career, and he was third there in Xfinity in 2022. His competition would be stiff, but he could have a chance. That's true of him for every round.

Essentially, Gibbs is going to wind up having a healthy number of toss-up matchups. If we just put his odds at 50-50 every round, he'd have a 3.1% chance to win it all. His implied odds here are 2.0%. Even with a coin-flip chance he's out in Round 1, I do think Gibbs should be shorter than +5000 to win this thing.

Want to fill out your own bracket? Check out our free printable bracket for the NASCAR In-Season Challenge tournament here.

Want to see what betting markets say about the In-Season Challenge? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.