Tennis

Australian Open Women's Final Betting Guide: Friday 1/26/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
Australian Open Women's Final Betting Guide: Friday 1/26/24

The Australian Open wraps up this weekend with the finals in men's and women's singles.

What better way to get in on the action than by making wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can find betting value in the women's title match.

Australian Open Best Bets

Qinwen Zheng vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Under 20.5 Total Match Games (-126)

Aryna Sabalenka has looked unstoppable throughout this tournament, winning all six of her matches in straight sets. Sabalenka passed her latest test with flying colors, defeating American Coco Gauff 7-6, 6-4 in a rematch of last year's US Open final.

She's now knocked out three seeded players on her way to this title match, including two players in the top 11 (Gauff and Barbora Krejcikova), and she notably blasted the other, Lesia Tsurenko, off the court with a rare 6-0, 6-0 double bagel in the third round.

While Qinwen Zheng certainly deserves credit for being a surprise entry in this final, she benefited from a lucky draw and didn't face a single opponent ranked inside the top 50. Despite that, she's been pushed to three sets in three of those matches, with her third-round meeting against fellow countrywoman Yafan Wang being a particularly narrow escape that ended in a final set tiebreak (6-4, 2-6, 7-6).

These two have faced each other only once, but their lone encounter came in last year's US Open quarterfinals, and Sabalenka won fairly easily (6-1, 6-4). Additionally, Sabalenka has an 80% win percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, per Tennis Abstract, whereas Zheng is at 71%.

It's worth noting that Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings project Sabalenka for a 61.0% win probability, which is much closer than we would expect from a -550 favorite (84.6% implied odds). However, we should keep in mind that those ratings aren't updated until after the event is over, and it's fair to assume Sabalenka's dominant play over the past two weeks would give her a sizable boost in these projections.

Overall, everything points to a Sabalenka victory, but finding value is difficult. Even a straight-sets win is priced at -175 odds. Therefore, the best route is arguably to back the under in total match games, which is effectively predicting a a fairly routine win in straight sets.

The line for this wager has dropped as low as 19.5, so if you're inclined to bet the under, you should grab it at 20.5 (-108/-126) while you can. It could be an important difference, as a 6-4, 6-4 win would still hit the under at 20.5 but wouldn't at 19.5.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.