Australian Open Women's Championship Odds: Is a Big Four Emerging?

The beginning of a new year means the first Grand Slam of the 2024 tennis season is right around the corner. The Australian Open begins on Sunday, January 14th, and Grand Slams Betting Odds are already up on FanDuel Sportsbook.

How do the odds shake out for this year's field? Let's take a look at how the top contenders on the women's side stack up.

Women's Singles Championship Odds

Iga Swiatek (+220)

Iga Swiatek has been halted in the fourth round of three of the last four Australian Opens, but she did make the semifinals in 2022. While the World No. 1 is best known for her absurd play on clay, she's a former US Open champion (2022) and hasn't lost a match on hard courts going back to early October of last year.

She'll enter Melbourne on a 16-match win streak, winning titles in Beijing and the WTA Finals to finish 2023, and she most recently went 5-0 in United Cup play, earning MVP honors despite Poland ultimately coming up short against Germany. Alexander Zverev praised her United Cup performance by referring to Swiatek as a "cheat code."

No one would be shocked to see Swiatek lift the Australian Open trophy for the first time. These are the same odds she had to win last year's US Open, a run that ended in the fourth round in a three-set loss to Jelena Ostapenko -- the rare player who has had Iga's number (4-0 versus Swiatek).

Elena Rybakina (+460)

The new season is barely underway, yet Elena Rybakina already has her first 2024 title secured, taking home the Brisbane trophy without dropping a single set. She bested Aryna Sabalenka in the Brisbane final, a rematch of last year's Australian Open title match (which Sabalenka won), and did so in convincing fashion, winning 6-0, 6-3.

That's a great sign that Rybakina is ready to make another deep Australian Open run, as outside of that finals appearance in 2023, she's otherwise failed to get passed the third round in Melbourne, and the same can be said for her results at the other hard courts major, the US Open.

While her lone Grand Slam championship came on grass at Wimbledon (2022), three of her six singles titles have come on hard courts, including a WTA 1000 last year at Indian Wells.

Aryna Sabalenka (+500)

Sabalenka is the defending champion and World No. 2, so she's naturally in the mix again. She's reached at least the semis in five straight majors (seven times overall), and in addition to her Australian Open win, she was runner-up at the 2023 US Open.

Going back to that US Open final, Sabalenka's only recent losses have come against top-five opponents: Coco Gauff, Rybakina (twice), Jessica Pegula, and Swiatek.

According to Tennis Abstract's surface-blended Elo ratings for hard courts, Sabalenka has the third-best ranking, barely edging out Rybakina. Swiatek is predictably first, but the second-best rating goes to our next player...

Coco Gauff (+700)

Similar to Jannik Sinner in the men's field, this is an enticing number we're getting on Gauff. She was at these exact same odds entering the 2023 US Open, and those who backed her were rewarded with Coco's first Grand Slam championship.

Like Rybakina, Gauff's already added another trophy to her resume, winning the 2024 Auckland title for the second straight season. It's an encouraging sign that Gauff won't suffer a post-championship hangover, something that isn't uncommon for first-time Grand Slam winners.

Turning just 20 in March, if Gauff can build on her strong finish last summer, we could see her best season yet. Of her seven singles titles, four have come since July of last year.

As previously noted, her recent run has her ranked above both Rybakina and Sabalenka in Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, making a bet on Gauff all the more tempting.

Other Notables

Jessica Pegula (+2000) - In terms of Elo ratings, Pegula isn't far behind the top contenders, and she was fantastic in the 2023 WTA Finals, defeating Rybakina, Sabalenka, Maria Sakkari, and Gauff before losing to Swiatek in the title match. But she continues to come up short in Grand Slams, stuck at 0-6 in major quarterfinals.

Naomi Osaka (+2700) - After taking a break from tennis and giving birth to her first child last July, chances are Osaka isn't ready to compete for major titles just yet, but we are talking about a former World No. 1 and four-time major winner -- all on hard courts. She went 1-1 in her tune-up tournament at Brisbane.

Qinwen Zheng (+3200) - A player on the rise, Zheng could be a dark horse candidate after making her first Grand Slam quarterfinal at the US Open. Previously winning Newcomer of the Year in 2022, she was the 2023 Most Improved Player of the Year. Perhaps the 21-year-old is poised to take the next step in majors.

Ons Jabeur (+3200) - One of the most well-liked players on the WTA Tour, Jabeur hasn't been able to seal the deal in Grand Slams, going 0-3 in major finals. Curiously, she hasn't found much success at this tournament in particular, but she was a quarterfinalist in 2020.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.