Australian Open Second Round Betting Guide: Wednesday 1/17/24

The first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, is underway this week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which second-round matches could have the most betting value on Wednesday.

Australian Open Best Bets

Ugo Humbert vs. Zhizhen Zhang

Humbert -4.5 Games (-106)

With this being the first major of the tennis season, it's often hard to gauge the form and health of players in the early rounds. Competitors typically have a handful of tune-up matches under their belt, but others come in cold turkey, electing to maximize rest in between seasons instead.

Ugo Humbert is a player who certainly entered with question marks after withdrawing from his second match in Brisbane prior to the tournament.

But his first-round victory over David Goffin was encouraging. While the match went four sets, Humbert won 76% of his first-serve points and had a whopping 17 break point chances. He converted just five of those break points, but the number of opportunities shows that with a few more going his way, he likely would've wrapped things up sooner.

Hopefully, this is a sign that Humbert can play close to the level at which he ended 2023. Following a one-and-done at the US Open, he went on to make the quarterfinals in Beijing (ATP 500) and Shanghai (ATP 1000) and the semifinals in Basel (ATP 500). He finished the season taking home the title in Metz (ATP 250). From September to the end of 2023, his only losses came versus top-12 opponents.

Zhizhen Zhang comes with far more 2024 reps, playing in both the United Cup and a pair of exhibition matches before this tourney. His only losses on the season have come to top-10 opponents (Novak Djokovic and Hubert Hurkacz), so Zhang could certainly make some noise here.

However, Zhang has pretty much been a .500 player thus far in his career, and he was just 7-7 on hard courts in 2023.

Humbert hasn't had a ton of success in Grand Slams yet, but this looks like a matchup he should win. Going by Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, the Frenchman has an 82.5% win probability.

Given the aforementioned uncertainty that comes in these early rounds, we probably shouldn't take that lofty number at face value and mess with a Humbert moneyline that's too steep for my liking (-250). But I do think there's value in this spread at close to even odds. Your average straight-sets win covers 4.5 games comfortably, and even if Zhang takes a set, Humbert could still cover in four -- as he did in the opening round.

Jakub Mensik vs. Hubert Hurkacz

Hurkacz -4.5 (-146)

Facing a qualifier for the second match in a row, Hubert Hurkacz could have another straight-sets win in his sights. Per Tennis Abstract's projections, he has an 89.7% chance to win over Jakub Mensik, and it's of little surprise that he's a -500 favorite.

That moneyline might not be worth touching, but with the spread hovering between 4.5 and 5.5 games today, that's an appealing way to attack this match.

Hurkacz is the World No. 9 and comes in with a 70.7% win percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks (29-12). Similar to Humbert, Hurkacz had a strong run to end 2023, most notably winning an ATP 1000 last October in Shanghai. He also made it to the semifinals at Cincinnati (ATP 1000), finals in Basel (ATP 500), and quarterfinals in Paris (ATP 1000).

The Polish player also played five matches in the 2024 United Cup, giving him plenty of warm-up reps entering the Australian Open.

Mensik is just 18 years old, so his time on the ATP Tour has been rather short, playing mostly at the Challenger level in 2023. He did surprise by qualifying for his first Grand Slam main draw at last year's US Open, even advancing to the third round. However, it's worth nothing his two main draw wins didn't come against opponents ranked inside the top 50, and he was promptly stomped by then World No. 9 Taylor Fritz.

Likewise, Mensik's first-round win this week came against a player who missed the second half of last season due to injury (Denis Shapovalov), so it's again hard to read too much into it.

This isn't to take away from Mensik's recent accomplishments; it's just a tall order to expect him to suddenly hang with a top-10 opponent just yet.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.