START YOUR OWN WINNING STREAK

Player Image
SportsBookLogo
Chevrons Texture
F1

Australian Grand Prix Win Simulations: Sorting Through the Mid-Pack

Subscribe to our newsletter

Australian Grand Prix Win Simulations: Sorting Through the Mid-Pack

Going into Formula 1's third race of the 2024 season, there's still plenty left to be unveiled.

Not at the front, obviously. There, we know it's Red Bull's play place.

But for the back half of the field, we still have plenty of questions.

The finishing order of that bunch was dictated by strategy in each of the first two races. There was tire strategy in the first race, and then Haas used teamwork to lock up a point in Saudi Arabia.

In other words, we don't have a true, true read on the hierarchy down there, and that could create value in the betting markets.

Let's look at what my model has simmed out prior to practice and qualifying for the Australian Grand Prix.

Driver
Sim Win
Podium
T6
T10
Max Verstappen73.2%86.9%87.0%87.0%
Sergio Perez10.9%71.1%85.8%86.2%
Charles Leclerc6.2%45.4%81.5%86.1%
Carlos Sainz4.6%36.0%77.4%85.8%
Lando Norris1.5%16.9%58.4%84.8%
Oscar Piastri1.1%13.2%50.9%82.0%
Lewis Hamilton0.9%11.4%47.5%81.5%

If you look at FanDuel Sportsbook's F1 betting odds, they have a clear view of the tiers back here: it's Alexander Albon, RB, Haas, and then a massive gap down to everybody else. Based on qualifying, that hierarchy is correct. But I have a bit more volatility baked in.

That leads to some value on T10 markets for Esteban Ocon (+850), Pierre Gasly (+850), Valtteri Bottas (+850), and Zhou Guanyu (+1100). I'm most intrigued by Zhou, given he has had enough pace to hold his track position when granted it the first two races, but I'm not itching to bet any of this now.

Those four cars above have had hideous pace in qualifying. That means it's very likely we can wait and get better value on them later in the weekend once their odds lengthen post-qualifying.

Additionally, practice could reveal that these teams are truly as dreadful as the market says, in which case we wouldn't want to bet them, anyway. Buying time here isn't a bad thing.

Zhou is the one I'd have the most interest in betting now, but just overall, it's not a bad week to wait and see if there's a level of overconfidence on the ranking of the back five teams.


New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You have a chance to get $200 in Bonus Bets if your first bet wins—valid across all sports until April 9th! See the promotions page for more information.

Which driver do you think is undervalued in Australia? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest F1 betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

Subscribe to our newsletter

Want more stories like this?

Sign up to our newsletter to receive the latest news.

Newsletter Signup
Newsletter Signup