Arnold Palmer Invitational: PGA Best Bets, Predictions, Past Results, and Course Info

The big hitters are back for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida: a signature event.

Here's all you need to know for the week.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Info

Bay Hill Club and Lodge Course Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and data golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 7,466 yards (long)
• Average Fairway Width: 34.3 yards (average)
• Average Green Size: 7,500 square feet (large)
• Green Type: Bermuda
• Stimpmeter: N/A
• Recent Winning Scores: -15, -9, -5, -11, -4
• Recent Cut Lines: +3, +2, +3, +2, +3

Bay Hill Club and Lodge Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
• Par 5 Scoring
• Putting from 5 to 15 Feet
• Proximity from 200+

Scottie Scheffler's win (at -15) in 2024 was a five-shot victory, so a more normal distribution of winning scores is around -7 or -8, as the four prior winners won by a single shot with more reasonable scores.

Recent winners here (Scheffler twice, Kurt Kitayama, Bryson DeChambeau, and Tyrrell Hatton) are largely great tee-to-green guys with spike potential as putters.

Kitayama was 14th in strokes gained: tee to green during his win, but the other four names were 8th or better in SG: T2G.

With water lurking on half the holes, we'll see a pretty elevated number of reloads. Avoiding penalties is crucial this week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Past Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five years of this event, including their strokes gained data at this event.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Recent Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five events on the PGA Tour, including their strokes gained data.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Collin Morikawa

• Odds To Win Arnold Palmer Invitational (+2200)
• To Finish Top 10 (+190)
• To Finish Top 20 (-195)

The big names are back, and it's hard to whittle down the best of the best when it comes to pure betting value.

Xander Schauffele (+1800) is drawing my attention as he returns from injury, but Collin Morikawa has been knocking on the door for months now.

Morikawa has finished 2nd at The Sentry, T17 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and T17 at The Genesis Invitational in his three starts in 2025.

The Bay Hill form isn't ideal (T64, T9, cut, cut), and he hasn't putted well on these greens.

But Morikawa's putting splits from within 15 feet since the start of last season put him in the 83rd percentile on Tour. He's also a plus bermuda putter over the last two years.

Justin Thomas

• Odds To Win Arnold Palmer Invitational (+2800)
• To Finish Top 10 (+230)
• To Finish Top 20 (-105)

Justin Thomas' return to form seems to be getting forgotten again. Thomas has now logged months of good data, and his 2025 calendar year features three top-10 finishes and four top-26 results in five starts.

He ranks sixth in the field in strokes gained per round over his last 50 rounds and fourth over his last 20.

He's gained strokes with approach play in 11 straight starts, and the putting is starting to tick upward a bit.

I don't love the putting splits (distance or surface), but even with those factored in, he's rating out as a value in my simulation model at a 28/1 number.

Russell Henley

• Odds To Win Arnold Palmer Invitational (+4400)
• To Finish Top 10 (+360)
• To Finish Top 20 (+140)

Russell Henley gave it a bit of a run last week at the Cognizant Classic before finishing T6, his third top-10 result in five starts in 2025. He virtually always gains with his approach play (17 of his last 18) and putting (19 of his last 21) at this point.

A lack of distance is the main hangup for Henley at Bay Hill, yet he finished T4 here a year ago and has made four straight cuts in his career at the course -- including a T13 in 2022.

Only six golfers in the field rank top-35 in all four strokes gained areas over their last 50 rounds: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, and Russell Henley.

Sam Burns

• Odds To Win Arnold Palmer Invitational (+5500)
• To Finish Top 10 (+400)
• To Finish Top 20 (+180)

Sam Burns is a stellar bermuda putter (thus the Bermuda Burns nickname) but is just a great putter overall (90th percentile since the start of last season from within 15 feet and 87th percentile from beyond 15 feet in that span).

The irons are still good (17th over the last 50 rounds), but the driver is a little weak right now (42nd). That has more to do with accuracy (51st) than distance (13th), though.

He'll need to avoid penalties off the tee but has promising underlying data in his career at Bay Hill: tons of distance and strokes gained: putting here. That's a good long shot combo.

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