Arkansas State vs Troy Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Sun Belt Tournament Championship

The Sun Belt champion will be named on Monday when the No. 4 seed Arkansas State Red Wolves (24-9, 13-5 Sun Belt) and the No. 3 Troy Trojans (22-10, 13-5 Sun Belt) face off at 7 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Arkansas State vs. Troy Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Monday, March 10, 2025
• Game time: 7 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN2
• Location: Pensacola, Florida
• Arena: Pensacola Bay Center

Before you bet on Monday's Arkansas State-Troy spread (Arkansas State -3.5) or total (141.5 points), read the betting insights and trends below.

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Arkansas State vs. Troy: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Arkansas State is 18-13-0 ATS this season.
• Troy is 19-11-0 ATS this year.
• Arkansas State covers the spread when it is a 3.5-point favorite or more 56.5% of the time. That's less often than Troy covers as an underdog of 3.5 or more (60%).
• The Red Wolves have covered the spread in a lower percentage of their home games than away games. They have covered eight times in 14 games at home, and they've covered 10 times in 13 games when playing on the road.
• The Trojans' winning percentage against the spread at home is .538 (7-6-0). On the road, it is .667 (10-5-0).
• Arkansas State has covered the spread 13 times in 19 conference games.
• Troy has 13 wins against the spread in 20 Sun Belt games this season.

Arkansas State vs. Troy: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Arkansas State has come away with 19 wins in the 25 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• This year, the Red Wolves have won 19 of 23 games when listed as at least -152 or better on the moneyline.
• Troy is 1-5 in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 16.7% of those games).
• When playing as a moneyline underdog with odds of +126 or longer, the Trojans have a record of 1-4 (20%).
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Arkansas State has a 60.3% chance of pulling out a win.

Arkansas State vs. Troy Head-to-Head Comparison

• Arkansas State is outscoring opponents by 9.7 points per game with a +320 scoring differential overall. It puts up 79.1 points per game (56th in college basketball) and allows 69.4 per contest (97th in college basketball).
• Arkansas State's leading scorer, Taryn Todd, is 277th in the nation averaging 14.9 points per game.
• Troy puts up 73.3 points per game (200th in college basketball) while giving up 64.9 per contest (22nd in college basketball). It has a +266 scoring differential and outscores opponents by 8.4 points per game.
• Troy's leading scorer, Tayton Conerway, ranks 379th in the country, averaging 14 points per game.
• The Red Wolves rank fourth in the country at 38.3 rebounds per game. That's 4.1 more than the 34.2 their opponents average.
• Izaiyah Nelson leads the team with 8.6 rebounds per game (42nd in college basketball play).
• The Trojans grab 35 rebounds per game (40th in college basketball) while conceding 29 per contest to opponents. They outrebound opponents by six boards per game.
• Thomas Dowd averages 6.8 rebounds per game (190th in college basketball) to lead the Trojans.
• Arkansas State scores 97.1 points per 100 possessions (143rd in college basketball), while allowing 85.2 points per 100 possessions (17th in college basketball).
• The Trojans' 94.1 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 231st in college basketball, and the 83.4 points they allow per 100 possessions rank eighth in college basketball.

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