ESPN confirms +320 FGS FD — joint market leader. RotoWire confirms Lautaro is one of Argentina's three penalty takers. Covers/Yahoo bet builder primary. With Messi benched, Lautaro is the primary striker from kick-off and the front of the queue for any first-half penalty. Jordan's 3-back concedes corners and fouls in the area — an early penalty converted by Lautaro, or a first-half header from a set piece, is the most likely FGS scenario. $10→$42.

ESPN +320 FGS FD. Sportsgambler +280. Racing Post explicit: "Álvarez will be one of the more desperate. He looks a strong bet to find the net." RotoWire confirms penalty taker. First WC start — fully fit and hungry from kick-off. His intelligent movement off the ball, and the confidence from Atleti's Champions League form, make him the most motivated Argentina player to score the opening goal. $10→$42.

ESPN confirms +600 FGS FD and names Paz as Messi's confirmed starting replacement. RotoWire's set-piece guide lists Nico Paz as one of Argentina's corner and free kick takers. A direct free kick by Argentina's dead ball specialist from Messi's central creative role — opening the game with a set piece goal — is a genuine $10→$70 FGS route. Full 90 minutes. $10→$70.