Amon-Ra St. Brown Can Finish as One of Fantasy's Top Receivers

We're roughly a month away from the first NFL preseason games, so there's no better time than the present to get caught up on our fantasy football research.

Let's look at Amon-Ra St. Brown, who recorded the fifth-most receptions of any player in the NFL last season and is expected to be one of the first 10 wideouts taken in fantasy drafts this year. What's his outlook in 2023?

Amon-Ra St. Brown Overview

Fantasy rankings and projections come from numberFire.

2022 Fantasy Points: 161.60 points
2023 Projected Points: 168.42 points

2023 Projected Stats: 156.24 targets, 104.79 receptions, 1211.18 receiving yards, 7.04 receiving TDs
numberFire's Projected 2023 Ranking: WR11

Amon-Ra St. Brown 2023 Fantasy Outlook

An Elite Target Earner

After finishing his rookie season with six consecutive games of at least eight receptions, St. Brown remained a consistent force in 2022. He recorded six or more receptions in 12 of his 16 games. He failed to reach four receptions in a game only once when he left Week 7's game against the Dallas Cowboys early with a suspected concussion.

He finished last season with the fifth-most receptions in the NFL despite playing one fewer game than three of the four players who were ahead of him. Among wide receivers who saw at least 85 targets last season, St. Brown's 76.3% reception percentage ranked fifth.

Operating primarily out of the slot, St. Brown's yards per reception (11.0) ranked 35th among wide receivers with at least 85 targets last season. However. St. Brown's role did evolve from his rookie season. As a rookie, 77.0% of St. Brown's snaps were in the slot. In 2022, the number dropped to 59.9%, with his yards per reception increasing from 10.1 to 11.0.

St. Brown earned Pro Football Focus' second-highest wide receiver grade (minimum 85 targets) last season (90.7), ahead of Justin Jefferson and behind only Tyreek Hill. That is exceptional company.

He is the focal point of the Lions' passing attack, posting a 26.1% target share last season while starting to expand his role to include more snaps outside of the slot. Entering his third season, he is trending in the right direction on a Detroit team that has plenty of reasons for optimism in 2023.

Already operating with one of the highest fantasy floors at the wide receiver position, St. Brown is well-positioned to take another step forward this season.

Potential Changes in 2023

There are some potential obstacles for St. Brown to overcome in 2022, though, primarily because of increased target competition.

This offseason, the Lions added rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta in the first and second rounds of the draft, respectively.

Gibbs led Alabama in both rushes (151) and receptions (44) in his junior season. He is a dual-threat who should have a significant role in the Lions' passing game. D'Andre Swift, now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles, was second on Detroit in targets (63) last year. Gibbs could easily surpass those numbers.

LaPorta will be filling the void left by T.J. Hockenson's move to the Minnesota Vikings. Hockenson saw 41 targets before his trade to Minnesota but was on pace to see 100. That level of involvement may be a tough task for LaPorta as a rookie, but combined with Brock Wright, the tight end position in Detroit should command more targets in 2023 than it did in 2022 (88).

Finally, the largest change for St. Brown in 2022 is the addition of sophomore wide receiver Jameson Williams.

Williams, the 12th overall pick in the 2022 draft, spent most of his rookie season recovering from an ACL injury, playing just 40 snaps. He will miss the first six weeks of the 2023 season serving a suspension for violating the NFL's gambling policy. When he returns, he will finally have a chance to be fully integrated into Detroit's offense. If Williams lives up to his potential, he has the opportunity to become a true number-one outside wide receiver for the Lions.

The combination of these additions should result in a significant increase in target competition for St. Brown, but it should also result in a more efficient offense. If opposing defense are forced to key in on Gibbs, LaPorta, and Williams, that provides St. Brown with more opportunities to exploit the pockets of space they create. A more efficient offense could result in more touchdowns for St. Brown, whose six scores in 2022 tied for 17th among wide receivers (minimum 85 targets).

Overall, there is a risk of decreased volume for St. Brown in 2023, but that is offset by his established position as the engine of Detroit's passing game, his connection and chemistry with Jared Goff, and the potential for increased efficiency.

Opportunity Cost: Where is St. Brown Being Drafted?

There is an opportunity cost to every draft pick in fantasy football. When you choose to draft a player, you are also choosing to give up the opportunity to draft other players with similar average draft positions (ADP). Thinking about these tradeoffs as you maneuver through a draft can help you build a better roster.

St. Brown's current ADP in FanDuel's best ball contests is 20.0. On Fantasy Football Calculator, his ADP is 27.

Selecting St. Brown at his ADP could mean passing on wide receivers, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, and Jaylen Waddle, running backs Jonathan Taylor and Tony Pollard, tight end Mark Andrews, and quarterback Josh Allen.

Each of these players has positives and negatives of their own to consider.

Adams is historically elite and the focal point of his offense, but there is uncertainty at quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders. Wilson has a chance to join the game's elite with Aaron Rodgers now in New York, but there is always risk with a duo that has no experience together. Waddle is an exceptional talent on an exciting offense, but he has to compete with Tyreek Hill for targets and needs Tua Tagovailoa to stay healthy.

Taylor and Pollard are both set up for success but they are coming off injuries. Allen looks poised for more success in 2023, but there are some concerns that he may rush less this season.

Final Verdict

St. Brown broke out as a rookie, built on that success as a sophomore, and is well-positioned to continue to ascend in 2023. He is the focal point of an offense that is also trending in the right direction and has established chemistry with Goff.

He will face increased target competition, but he will have at least a six-week head start before Williams returns from his suspension. Detroit will benefit from an influx of talent on offense, and the cornerstone of that offense is the connection between Goff and St. Brown.

The opportunity cost to select St. Brown is steep. He is surrounded by elite options at multiple positions, some of which have upside scenarios that surpass what St. Brown is capable of operating primarily out of the slot.

That said, St. Brown offers remarkable consistency combined with the potential for increased efficiency on both the individual and team levels. He belongs in this group and can be drafted with confidence.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.