Amari Cooper Is Primed for His Best Fantasy Season in 2023

We're less than two months away from Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season, and fantasy football draft season is rapidly approaching.

You can't win your fantasy football league on draft day, but you can certainly lose it. For savvy owners, this time of the year is when you get ahead of the rest of your league.

At FanDuel Research, we are here for you. We're breaking down all the top fantasy options ahead of the 2023 season, with this piece focusing on Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper.

Amari Cooper Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Projection: 125 targets, 81 receptions, 1,124 yards, 7.2 receiving TDs

numberFire Positional Projection: WR16

Amari Cooper Fantasy Football Outlook

State of the Position

Is this the year of the receiver?

Current half-PPR average draft position (ADP) data from FantasyPros certainly suggests that -- at least early on.

As it currently stands, seven receivers are going in the first round of fantasy drafts -- the most since FantasyPros began tracking half-PPR ADP in 2018. There is a noticeable uptick in receivers drafted inside the first three rounds, as well, with the number jumping up to 16 this year.

While ADP suggests you're going to have to spend a pretty penny to get your hands on an elite WR, that makes receivers drafted outside the first three rounds all the more valuable -- provided you nail the pick.

Who better to fill that role than Amari Cooper -- a receiver with an ADP of 39 who has finished as a top-20 wideout in four of the past five seasons.

2022 Rewind

Cooper hit the ground running in his first season with the Browns. After a dud in Week 1, Cooper rattled off a series of strong outings and was the WR8 through the first 12 weeks of the season with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.

After Deshaun Watson took over in Week 13, however, Cooper's fantasy production plummeted, and he eclipsed double-digit fantasy points just twice over the final six weeks.

Cooper's dip in fantasy points was noticeable, but the target share difference was negligible. He remained Cleveland's primary receiving option thanks to garnering 26.1% of his team's targets -- the 16th-highest rate in the league.

It's also worth noting that Cooper was dealing with a core muscle injury during the last month of the regular season. That could explain the downtick in his production toward the end of the year but should be a nonfactor in 2023 after he underwent surgery in the off-season.

Fantasy-wise, Cooper still finished as the WR9 in half-PPR with 208 points (12.2 points per game).

Receiving Breakdown

By all accounts, Cooper was one of the best receivers in the NFL last year. He finished with 79 receptions (15th), 1,189 yards (7th), and 8 touchdowns (T-7th). His 83.6 PFF receiving grade ranked 13th among receivers and was the second-highest grade of his career.

He spent most of his time out wide, lining up there on 75% of passing snaps. That's where he's played the majority of his career, but Cleveland's receiving alignment is a storyline to watch in camp.

Newcomer Elijah Moore figures to play predominantly from the slot given how well Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones performed last season, but the Browns have already hinted at Moore playing inside and out.

I wouldn't read that as a threat to Cooper's snap share as it would likely come at the expense of Peoples-Jones. If anything, it could allow Amari to spend more time in the slot -- a place he's thrived in limited action.

When targeting Cooper after Cooper lined up in the slot, Cleveland QBs had a Madden-esque 157.0 passer rating -- far and away the best mark when targetting any slot receiver in the league. As one of the game's most technical route runners, Cooper is a matchup nightmare inside.

Amari caught just 26 passes out of the slot, but he still racked up 424 yards -- ranking fourth with 16.3 yards per reception. Half of his touchdowns came from the slot despite him lining up there just a quarter of the time.

PFF gave him an 83.5 slot receiving grade -- 14th in the league. It's speculation for me to say Cooper will see an uptick in slot snaps, but given how well Cooper has played there, fantasy owners shouldn't be worried about Moore pushing him inside at times.

Furthermore, Cooper's prowess in the red zone gives him a strong floor -- especially if Cleveland's offense improves from last season. Cooper led the Browns -- and ranked 11th in the league -- with a 39.5% end zone market share.

2023 Preview

The 2023 Browns' offense may be their most exciting attack in years, and for once, that could start with the passing game.

Nick Chubb will of course be a workhorse out of the backfield, but with Kareem Hunt out of town, Cleveland may not be able to run the ball at the same rate they have the past few seasons.

Although Cleveland's run rate actually went up upon Watson's return in Week 13, their personnel changes and Watson's track record suggest a more pass-happy approach is in store for 2023.

In Watson's three full years as a starter in Houston, his Texans never threw less than 56.0% of the time, peaking with a 63.4% pass rate in his final season. He consistently led his primary receivers to strong fantasy campaigs over that span.

In 2018 and 2019, Watson helped DeAndre Hopkins finish as the WR4 and WR9. Then, in 2020, after Hopkins left, Watson guided Brandin Cooks to a WR16 finish while Will Fuller averaged the sixth-most fantasy points per game.

Watson and the Browns are one of the league's biggest mysteries entering 2023. There are certainly question marks, but with a win total set at 9.5, they look set for an improved campaign. It's hard to imagine a quality Browns team in 2023 not coinciding with a strong season from their No. 1 receiver.

Final Verdict

Amari Cooper has long cemented himself as an upper-echelon wide receiver. At 29 years old, Cooper may not look as exciting as some of the younger receivers entering the league, but he's arguably never played with a quarterback of Watson's talent level.

He has an incredibly high floor entering 2023, and if Watson's play can return to the level it was at in Houston, Cooper's ceiling is through the roof. Compared to where other receivers are being drafted, Cooper could end up looking like a steal in the fourth round.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.