AL Manager of the Year Odds: Quatraro and Vogt Leading With Strong Starts

The American League Central was the worst division in MLB last season with four of five teams finishing with losing records. The division has taken a 180 as three of five teams are carrying winning records. Plus, the Detroit Tigers are only one game below .500.

The AL Manager of the Year race could start and end with one division -- the Central. Three of the four shortest odds to win this award are from the division, and the two favorites are atop the AL Central standings.

Currently, the award race is close between two skippers. What do the MLB award odds look like for AL Manager of the Year? Here's who is leading the pack along with managers who could work their way up the ladder.

AL Manager of the Year Odds

Matt Quatraro, Kansas City Royals (+170)

The Kansas City Royals have been one of the big success stories in the AL Central. Since back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 and 2015, it's been a steady decline for this franchise. In fact, the Royals had losing seasons for seven consecutive years, and 2023's win percentage of .346 was the worst mark yet during this span.

Kansas City had some promising young talent last season led by Bobby Witt Jr., Cole Ragans Maikel Garcia, and Michael Massey. It's all rounding into form as several blooming players are leading the charge, including Witt, Ragans, and Garcia.

Witt has taken his game to the next level with a .307 batting average and .385 weighted on-base average (wOBA). He currently has the third-shortest odds to win AL MVP(+440), per FanDuel's MLB odds. Ragans has also been a formidable starter and carries +1500 odds to win the AL Cy Young.

Several veterans have taken their games to the next level, as well. Salvador Perez was an All-Star in 2023 and has improved, taking his 2023 .255 batting average to .325 (fourth-highest in MLB). Seth Lugo is carrying a 1.72 ERA and is +1500 to win the Cy Young.

It's been improvement across the board. The Royals scored the eighth-fewest runs last season and are currently tied for the fourth-most runs scored. Pitching hasn't been the same success story, but they've still went from the 5th-highest skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) to the 11th-highest in 2024.

Matt Quatraro led Kansas City to a 56-106 record with a .346 winning percentage in 2023. The Royals are currently 35-22 with a .614 winning percentage, are +280 to win the AL Central, and carry -182 odds to make the playoffs. Quatraro being in the heat of this race is no surprise.

Stephen Vogt, Cleveland Guardians (+240)

Perhaps the best story among the candidates is Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians. Vogt enjoyed a successful 10-year career in the MLB as a player, retiring after the 2022 season. He even made two All-Star appearances in 2015 and 2016.

Terry Francona elected to retire following the 2023 season. From 2013 to 2023, Cleveland made six postseason appearances -- which included a loss in the 2016 World Series. Losing a manager of this quality (likely a Hall of Fame candidate) was a major blow. The Guardians turned to Vogt, who had no manager experience and was the Seattle Mariners' bullpen coach in 2023.

At 39, Vogt has flourished thus far, leading Cleveland to a 37-19 record (.661 win percentage). The Guardians haven't finished with a win percentage this high since 1995 -- another team that lost in the World Series.

Cleveland's hitting is leaps and bounds from 2023. Last season, they finished with the fourth-fewest runs score, fourth-lowest wOBA, and second-lowest slugging percentage (SLG). The Guardians currently have the 3rd-most runs scored, are tied for the 10th-highest wOBA, and are knotted for the 10th-highest slugging percentage.

The team SIERA has also went from being tied for the seventh-highest mark to carrying the sixth-lowest total in 2024.

This team has the third-best record in the MLB. While the Royals' turnaround is nothing to sneeze at, I believe Vogt to win AL Manager of the Year is carrying the most value right now. Cleveland is one of the best teams in the league and has a great chance of winning their first AL Central title since 2022.

Brandon Hyde, Baltimore Orioles (+850)

Quatraro and Vogt are the clear leaders in this race. We have a steep drop-off to the third-shortest odds, which includes Brandon Hyde. The Baltimore Orioles' manager is no stranger to this hardware as he was crowned the AL Manager of the Year in 2023.

The Orioles remain a force with a 35-19 record while holding the fifth-shortest odds to win the World Series (+1000). However, they're about on par with last season's win percentage of .623. The win percentage currently sits at .648, but is this really enough to earn Manager of the Year?

Hyde is not elevating Baltimore to a new level this season compared to what Quatraro and Vogt are currently doing. The O's scored the 7th-most runs with the 14th-highest wOBA in 2023 and currently have the 6th-most runs and 6th-highest wOBA. The improvement in wOBA is deceiving, though, as it is sitting at .322 compared to .320 last season.

The biggest talking point could be Baltimore's improvement in pitching. They had the ninth-highest SIERA last season and have the ninth-lowest mark right now. Of course, a lot of this can be credited to the addition of Corbin Burnes, who is +460 to win AL Cy Young.

Still, is this enough for Hyde to repeat as AL Manager of the Year?

A.J. Hinch, Detroit Tigers (+850)

A.J. Hinch is an interesting option as the Tigers are 27-28. However, this has not been a major jump like the Royals. Detroit had a .481 win percentage last season and it's currently .491.

For Hinch to truly make a push at this award, the Tigers would likely need to make the playoffs. Detroit has some work to do as they are three games back from a Wild Card spot and are +390 to make a postseason appearance.

The pitching is there with the eighth-lowest SIERA. Tarik Skubal -- who is the favorite to win AL Cy Young (+200) -- Jack Flaherty, and Reese Olson have been excellent in the starting rotation. The batting order must step it up, for it is tied for the 13th-fewest runs and the 11th-lowest wOBA.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.