AL Cy Young Odds Update: Framber Valdez Is Now the Favorite

The All-Star Break is here which means we've officially hit the halfway point of the 2023 MLB season. While narratives have already taken hold of the major awards, a lot can happen over the final three months of the regular season.

Let's see where things currently stand in the pitching department, looking today at the American League Cy Young odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

We have a new favorite for the award, as Framber Valdez has now taken over the lead. He doesn't have gaudy numbers but has been steady throughout the season.

While Valdez's 26.2% strikeout rate is solid, it's far from being the best in the American League. He does rate well in some advanced metrics, however. He's second in the AL in expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) at 2.99. He's also fourth in skill interactive ERA (SIERA) at 3.31.

The Houston Astros are currently sitting in second place in the AL West and occupying the second wild card spot, as well. Valdez will need to close the season strongly, both for his team and his hopes to win the award. If he is in any high-profile games and pitches well, the spotlight could help in the eyes of the voters.

Valdez has good numbers, but they aren't the sort of eye-popping ones that make him a shoo-in for the award. If any of the candidates directly below him start really going off in the second half, they can easily surpass him as the favorite.

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

Next on the list is Gerrit Cole. Cole came close to winning the award in 2019 and 2020, finishing as the runner-up.

A decade or so earlier, Cole's 9-2 record would look good in the eyes of most of the voters. Nowadays, most voters will look at more advanced numbers.

That would not be good for Cole, though, as he doesn't rate as well in some of those metrics. His strikeout rate is down to 25.8% after previously being above 30% for every season since 2018. This is also only the 12th-best number in the American League.

Cole's xFIP is only the 14th-best in the AL. His SIERA is 13th. These numbers don't reflect those of a Cy Young favorite.

Something that is working in Cole's favor is that he plays for the New York Yankees. They are obviously a high-profile team that gets extra attention, which could give him some extra votes if his numbers improve.

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

Kevin Gausman is third in the odds, and there is a lot to like about his case to win the award.

Gausman has the best strikeout rate in the American League, currently sitting at 32.6%. His strikeout-minus-walk rate is 26.4%, also the best in the AL.

Not only is he leading in these categories, but he also has the AL's best xFIP and SIERA. He arguably has a better case for the award than Valdez or Cole despite being listed behind them in the betting.

Gausman's 7-5 record is not impressive, which may be the reason for the lower odds. But the Toronto Blue Jays are in a wild card spot at the moment, and Gausman is a big reason for that.

This is the best year of Gausman's career, even after he's been on a three-year dominant run. If you like Gausman to win, the best time to bet on him could be now. If he has a good start his next time on the mound, he could become the favorite.

Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

The favorite for this award the last time we looked at it, Shane McClanahan has slipped a bit since then.

McClanahan has had back-to-back starts that lasted under four innings. His strikeout rate over the last five starts is only 20.4%, down from his season rate of 26.0%.

He still sports some solid numbers, such as a 2.53 ERA. His more advanced numbers are not so impressive, though, as his xFIP is all the way up to 3.88.

In the old way voters used to consider this award, McClanahan's low ERA and 11-1 record would give him a lot of credibility. But the fact that he's the ace on the best team in baseball does help the perception of him.

McClanahan may not be the favorite anymore, but if he can get back on track in his next few outings, he could see his odds slash.

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