AFC Championship Betting Odds: Will the Chiefs Win Back-To-Back Conference Titles?

With 2023 OTAs starting up, we are now slightly more than three months away from the start of the NFL season.

Let's run through the eight squads with the best odds to win the AFC Championship, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (+350)

Projected Win Total: 11.5 (-128 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -500

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Offensive Coordinator: Matt Nagy in for Eric Bieniemy

Why They Could Win the AFC:

The short answer is Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs have made it to at least the AFC Championship in each of Mahomes' five seasons as a starter, winning three of the last four. Entering his sixth season under center, Mahomes is a co-favorite to win the NFL MVP (+700), per the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. He is the favorite to lead the league in passing yards (+400) and will still be throwing to his favorite target, tight end Travis Kelce, who has led the Chiefs in receiving yards in three of the last four seasons.

In addition to having the best player at the most important position, the Chiefs also bring back Andy Reid. Since taking the job in 2013, Reid hasn't had a losing season, compiling a record of 117-45 in the regular season (72.2%) and 12-7 (63.2%) in the playoffs. In five seasons with Mahomes and Reid, the Chiefs' offense has never finished outside the top six in points scored. Last year, KC didn't see a drop despite the departure of Tyreek Hill, leading the league in points (496), passing yards (5,250), and passing touchdowns (41).

In the last five years, only a Tom Brady-led New England Patriots team and a Cincinnati Bengals team under Joe Burrow have stopped the Chiefs from winning the AFC. Both teams required overtime to do. Simply put, preventing the Chiefs from winning the AFC Championship is a tall task.

Why They Could Lose the AFC:

The departure of Eric Bieniemy, an inexperienced wide receiver group, and an extremely competitive AFC.

While Reid remains, the Chiefs will enter the 2022-23 season with a new offensive coordinator for the first time since Mahomes was named the starter in 2018. Matt Nagy has familiarity with the offense, but the departure of a long-time, successful offensive coordinator in Bieniemy could cause some problems for Kansas City. All of Mahomes' success has come with the combination of Reid and Bieniemy in charge of the offense.

The Chiefs lost JuJu Smith-Schuster to the Patriots in free agency and will once again enter the season with an inexperienced wide receiver group. Last year, they didn't miss a beat after Hill's departure, and they could do the same this year, but it's a potential stumbling block for an offense that relies heavily on passing. There is plenty of potential in the Chiefs' wide receiver group, and Kansas City will be hoping one of Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling or rookie Rashee Rice steps up to fill the targets vacated by Smith-Schuster's exit. This could end up being a net gain for the Chiefs, but as it stands, there is some uncertainty.

Finally, the continued improvement of the AFC as a whole poses the largest threat to the Chiefs' chances of repeating. The conference is loaded, with multiple teams featuring elite talent at quarterback or young players who are poised to take the next step. The offseason saw Aaron Rodgers move to the New York Jets and Lamar Jackson remain with the Baltimore Ravens. Seven of the top eight players in MVP odds play in the AFC. This conference is loaded, and it looks like it'll be that way for a while.

2. Buffalo Bills (+450)

Projected Win Total: 10.5 (-128 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -245

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Defensive Coordinator: Head Coach Sean McDermott will fill in for Leslie Frazier, who is taking a year off.

Why They Could Win the AFC:

All the pieces are still there.

Last season ended with a very disappointing home loss to the Bengals in the Divisional Round, but the Bills remain an elite team capable of going toe-to-toe with anyone. Josh Allen is a co-favorite to win MVP (+700), and Stefon Diggs has the seventh-best odds to lead the league in receiving yards (+1800). Together, they form one of the top duos in the league, one that has operated at a high level for multiple years.

The addition of tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round of the draft could provide an additional weapon in the middle of the field, and second-year running back James Cook will have the opportunity to take the next step following Devin Singletary's move to the Houston Texans.

Last season, the Bills' scored the fourth-most points (455) and allowed the second-fewest (286), producing the second-best point differential in the league. After an offseason where not much changed, they are well-positioned to return to the playoffs. Once they get there, they can compete with anyone.

Why They Could Lose the AFC:

The potential strength of the AFC East.

While Rodgers' arrival in New York impacts everyone in the league, it is particularly impactful for the Bills, who have to face the Jets twice. Add to that the potential for the Miami Dolphins to improve in Year 2 under Mike McDaniel and the Patriots bringing in an actual offensive coordinator for 2023 and life may be difficult for Buffalo in their division.

Of course, the Bills remain the favorites to win the division (+130), but the tougher schedule could impact their ability to claim the top seed in the AFC. Buffalo's path to winning the AFC would be significantly easier with a first-round bye and home-field advantage. Those advantages are harder to secure in a tough division. Compare Buffalo's odds to win the AFC East to the Chiefs' odds to win the AFC West (-160).

3. Cincinnati Bengals (+500)

Projected Win Total: 11.5 (-134 on the under)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -340

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• None

Why They Could Win the AFC:

Continuity.

After winning the 2022 AFC Championship by a field goal, the Bengals were on the other side of things last season,losing a close one at KC. For the second year in a row, they were one of the final two teams standing in the AFC. They will enter this season with the same head coach, Zac Taylor, offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan, and defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, they have had since 2019. Given their recent success, it is remarkable they have not had any turnover at key spots.

With Joe Burrow under center and stability at the top of their organization, the Bengals are well-positioned to remain a threat this season. Burrow is a co-favorite to win MVP (+700) and Ja'Marr Chase is the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1200) and has second-best odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards (+750). Tee Higgins has the 14th-best odds to lead the league in receiving yards (+2900), the second-best odds for a player who is not the primary receiver on their own team. Together, Higgins and Chase form one the league's top receiver duos, and they could take another step forward this season.

The offseason addition of Orlando Brown Jr. from Kansas City bolstered the Bengals' offensive line while potentially weakening the Chiefs' front five. It further reinforces Cincinnati's passing game and sets them up to be a serious contender in the AFC for the third year in a row.

Why They Could Lose the AFC:

The potential strength of the AFC North.

Just like the Bills in the AFC East, the Bengals will have to deal with a division that is expected to be improved this season.

While the Bengals fell just short of winning the AFC Championship last year, they also almost lost to the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card Round. Without Lamar Jackson, the Ravens were able to push the Bengals into a dire situation that Cincy escaped thanks to a goal-line fumble by backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. This year, the Ravens will have Jackson back with a new contract, new weapons, and a new offensive coordinator.

The Cleveland Browns could also be much improved. Last year, Cleveland opened the season with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and struggled. Those struggles continued once Deshaun Watson took over, with the former Texan playing his first snaps since 2021. This year, Watson should be more up to speed, and while it remains to be seen if he can return to his 2021 levels of production, his production should -- at the very least -- be better than it was last season.

A similar jump could also happen for the Pittsburgh Steelers with Kenny Pickett. Pickett struggled as a rookie, completing 245 of 389 (63.0%) attempts for 2,404 yards (6.2 yards per attempt), 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in 13 appearances. With a full season under his belt and an entire preseason operating as the starter, he will have a good chance to improve on those numbers.

The Bengals remain the favorite in the AFC North, but they will face a tougher path to a division title than they did last year, which could ultimately impact their seeding come playoffs.

4. New York Jets (+900)

Projected Win Total: 9.5 (-134 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -162

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Offensive Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett in for Mike LaFleur

Why They Could Win the AFC:

They found the missing piece.

Despite featuring a starting quarterback group of Zach Wilson (nine starts), Mike White (four starts), and Joe Flacco (four starts), the Jets were in contention for a playoff spot for most of the regular season. The Jets' offense scored the fourth-fewest points in the league last season (296) while their defense allowed the fourth-fewest points (316).

Enter Aaron Rodgers.

Even if the former Packers' quarterback provides only slightly above-average quarterback play, he will be a substitutional improvement compared to what New York was dealing with last year. Rodgers' arrival gives the Jets a huge increase in talent at the most important position in the game, a position which also happened to be the Jets' primary weakness last year.

Outside of quarterback, New York already had what they needed to contend -- an elite defense and explosive playmakers at wide receiver, Garrett Wilson, and running back, Breece Hall. Rodgers is stepping into a dream scenario as he will have plenty of talent to work with and should get lots of help from his defense. He is set up to succeed and can help the Jets contend for the AFC.

Why They Could Lose the AFC:

A lack of familiarity playing together, a loaded division, and a lack of postseason experience.

Although Rodgers is an ideal addition and will have some familiar faces around him, most notably Nathaniel Hackett at offensive coordinator and Allen Lazard at wide receiver, there may still be a learning curve. High-profile quarterbacks switching teams have had mixed results in their first year. Peyton Manning played well in his first campaign on the Denver Broncos but didn't reach his full potential until his second season. Tom Brady won the Super Bowl in his first season in Tampa Bay but statistically had a better year in Year 2. Russell Wilson failed to make the playoffs in his first season in Denver. In short, Rodgers may not be at his best in New York until his second season.

Rodgers being at anything less than his best would make winning the AFC extremely difficult. Even if the Jets make a huge leap, they still have to contend with a loaded AFC East as well as an incredibly difficult AFC as a whole. Rodgers can have a successful first season in New York and the Jets could still fall short of winning the AFC simply because they couldn't get past the Chiefs. It's a tough task.

Finally, while Rodgers and some members of the Jets have playoff experience, many do not. Inexperience leading to small mistakes can be the difference come playoffs, and the Jets haven't been in the postseason since 2010. The Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills all have extensive recent playoff experience. The Jets are the only team on this list that wasn't in the playoffs last year.

5. Baltimore Ravens (+1000)

Projected Win Total: 10.5 (-142 on the under)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -150

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Offensive Coordinator: Todd Monken in for Greg Roman

Why They Could Win the AFC:

A new-look offense, a healthy Lamar Jackson, and an elite defense.

The Ravens enter this season with a new offensive coordinator for the first time since the 2018 campaign. The switch to Todd Monken should see Baltimore utilize Jackson more as a passer. A shift away from run-heavy formations toward a more spread scheme is expected. To support that change, Baltimore made several key additions this offseason, adding Odell Beckham in free agency and rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers in the first round of the draft. Tight end Mark Andrews returns as Jackson's favorite target, and Rashod Bateman should be healthy for the start of the season. This will likely be the best group of pass catchers Jackson has ever had.

Of course, none of this will matter if Jackson isn't healthy for the playoffs. Jackson has played 12 games each of his last two seasons, and for the Ravens to have any chance of winning the AFC, he will need to be at his best for the postseason. If he is and if the Ravens' offense is clicking, they will form an elite combination with a Baltimore defense that allowed the third-fewest points last season (315).

Why They Could Lose the AFC:

A tough AFC North and a history of postseason struggles.

Just like the Bengals, the Ravens will have to contend with a division that figures to be much improved this year. To make matters worse, their schedule has them playing their first three divisional games on the road. While the Ravens are gaining game experience with their new offensive, they have to travel to the Bengals in Week 2, the Browns in Week 4 and the Steelers in Week 5. Baltimore does not play a home division game until Week 10. If Baltimore starts slowly, they could find themselves facing an uphill climb in the second half of the season.

Regardless of what seed the Ravens earn, they will need Jackson to be an elite quarterback in the postseason for the first time in his career.

Jackson is 1-3 in his four postseason starts with a combined stat line of 76 completions on 136 attempts (55.9%) for 900 yards (6.6 yards per attempt), 3 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. On the ground, he has 54 carries for 367 yards (6.8 yards per attempt) and 1 touchdown. Jackson has been effective as a runner, but in an offense expected to operate more through the passing game, he will need to throw it better in the playoffs for the Ravens to run through the AFC.

6. Miami Dolphins (+1200)

Projected Win Total: 9.5 (-110 on the over and under)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -105

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Defensive Coordinator: Vic Fangio in for Josh Boyer

Why They Could Win the AFC:

An elite offense, an improved defense, and a healthy Tua Tagovailoa.

In their first season under head coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins' offense finished 11th in points scored (397) despite Tagovailoa missing four games and exiting one game early. Featuring the fastest wide receiver duo in the NFL in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Miami's offense is capable of going toe-to-toe with anyone. Hill has the third-best odds to lead the league in receiving yards (+900), and Waddle has the best odds (+2000) for a player who is not the primary receiver on their own team.

Even with Tagovailoa inactive, Miami scored 31 points on the road against the Bills in the Wild Card Round. Entering their second season with McDaniel at the helm, if this offense takes another step forward and Tagovailoa stays healthy, the Dolphins can be a contender in the AFC.

Miami should also be improved on defense. Last season, they finished 24th in points allowed (399), prompting them to move on from Josh Boyer, who joined the team under head coach Brian Flores, and hire Vic Fangio. In March, Miami traded for cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who will form a formidable partnership with Xavien Howard. If the Dolphins' offense can force their opponents into passing situations, their secondary is well-positioned to take advantage of those opportunities.

With elite duos at wide receiver and cornerback, Miami should be good throwing the ball offensively and defending the pass on D. The ability for Tagovailoa to play a full season remains a massive concern, but if he can stay healthy, Miami has all the pieces needed to make some noise in the AFC.

Why They Could Lose the AFC:

A tough AFC East and a lack of postseason experience for Tagovailoa.

Like the Bills and Jets, the Dolphins have to deal with the AFC East. When the easiest projected opponent in your division is the Patriots, things are going to be difficult. Miami has the third-best odds to win the AFC among just teams in their own division. Even a successful regular season could result in the Dolphins having to win back-to-back road playoff games to ju make the AFC Championship. Life is tough in the AFC in general, but it is especially tough for the Dolphins, who have the worst odds to make the playoffs of the eight teams on this list.

If Miami does make the postseason, Tagovailoa will have to excel in his first appearance in the playoffs. The Dolphins are the only team on this list with a projected starting quarterback who has not played in the postseason. Among the quarterbacks for the other teams on this list, only one had a winning record in their first trip to the postseason (Burrow at 3-1). Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence both went 1-1 on their first try, while the remaining four lost their first game. For Miami to win the AFC, Tagovailoa will have to become just the second quarterback on this list to make the Super Bowl in his first playoff run. Oh, and he'll need to conquer his health woes, too.

7. Los Angeles Chargers (+1300)

Projected Win Total: 9.5 (-128 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -115

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Offensive Coordinator: Kellen Moore in for Joe Lombardi
• Defensive Coordinator: Derrick Ansley in for Renaldo Hill

Why They Could Win the AFC:

Justin Herbert and a new philosophy on offense.

While Herbert and head coach Brandon Staley remain, things will look different for the Los Angeles Chargers this season. After crashing out of the playoffs with a historic 27-point second-half collapse, Los Angeles will enter this year with a new coordinator on both sides of the ball.

Kellen Moore joined the Chargers almost immediately after parting ways with the Dallas Cowboys. While Dallas is looking to embrace a more conservative, run-heavy scheme with Mike McCarthy calling plays, the Chargers may fully embrace Moore's explosive passing attack. Despite passing for the second-most yards in the league last year (4,739), Herbert's yards per attempt (6.8) was lower than every other player inside the top 13 except Tom Brady.

In four seasons under Moore, Dak Prescott recorded yards per attempt of 8.2, 8.4, 7.5, and 7.3. The slow decline started once McCarthy was introduced as the head coach in 2020. Now, Moore will get to work with Herbert and a head coach that has no problem embracing a pass-heavy offense. The Chargers used their first-round pick on field-stretching wide receiver Quentin Johnston. Herbert has the fourth-best odds to win MVP (+900), behind only Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen.

All signs point toward a fully unleashed Herbert operating in an explosive downfield passing offense.

Why They Could Lose the AFC:

The Chiefs and the ghosts of seasons past.

The largest issue for the Chargers' outlook in the AFC is the Chiefs. While the AFC West as a whole doesn't project to be as strong as the AFC North or AFC East, the Chargers will have a more difficult time winning their division because of Kansas City. The Chargers have the worst odds to win their division (+300) of any team on this list. Even if they make big improvements on both sides of the ball, the Chargers are unlikely to dethrone Kansas City in the AFC West. That sets them up for a difficult path through the playoffs, likely facing multiple road games to make the Super Bowl.

No team wants a difficult path, but it's especially scary for an organization with a history of soul-crushing defeats. In just the last two years alone, the Bolts have been eliminated on a last-second tiebreaker timeout debacle against the Las Vegas Raiders and a 27-point second-half collapse against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chargers' history is full of moments like this. Whatever can go wrong for them in crucial moments, usually does.

To win the AFC for the first time since 1994, Los Angeles will have to shake their history of failure in big moments, and it would help a lot if they could break KC's stranglehold on the AFC West. Considering the strength of the conference, it will be an incredibly difficult task.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1500)

Projected Win Total: 9.5 (-150 on the over)
Odds to Make the Playoffs: -192

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• None

Why They Could Win the AFC:

Coaching continuity, Trevor Lawrence, and the AFC South.

Besides the Bengals, the Jaguars are the only other team on this list that did not make a change to their coordinator positions this offseason. Last season marked a fresh start following the horrendous Urban Meyer era, and things went well for Jacksonville. After starting the season 2-6, they turned a corner, ending the year with seven wins over the final nine games -- including winning their last five in a row -- to clinch the AFC South. Then, they beat the Chargers in the Wild Card Round before losing to the Chiefs in a hard-fought contest.

For the first time in a while, the coaching staff has the Jaguars moving in the right direction.

The most important outcome from last season for the Jaguars was the play of Trevor Lawrence. With Urban Meyer as his coach, Lawrence struggled in his rookie season, and the slow start to his sophomore season was starting to paint a worrying picture. Then, he turned things around, ending the year with 387 completions on 584 attempts (66.3%) for 4,113 yards (7.0 yards per attempt), 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Heading into this season, Lawrence appears to be back on track and has the opportunity to take the next step and join the elite ranks of the quarterback position. If he does, success will follow for Jacksonville. Lawrence has the seventh-best odds to win the MVP (+1600).

Perhaps the biggest advantage the Jaguars have in their quest for the AFC is their division. The Jags have the same odds to win their division (-160) as the Chiefs do. The AFC South is by far the weakest division in the conference (and maybe the NFL). Outside of the Jaguars, every other team in the AFC South ranks in the bottom three in odds to win the AFC. While the other teams on this list will require excellent seasons just to have a chance to win their divisions, the Jaguars will have a much easier time locking in a division crown and the home-field playoff game that comes with it.

Why They Could Lose the AFC:

Rookie quarterbacks in the AFC South and the strength of the conference as a whole.

While the AFC South is projected to be Jacksonville's for the taking, the performance of this year's rookie quarterback class could change that. Between them, the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans have three of the first four quarterbacks selected in this year's draft. While it is unlikely that all of them excel in their first season, it only takes one to do so to make life more difficult for the Jaguars.

Houston may be more than a quarterback away, but both the Colts and Titans have been in contention for playoff spots in recent seasons. If Anthony Richardson or Will Levis hit the ground running this season, the Jaguars' path will become more difficult, and it could be the difference between Jacksonville cruising to a home playoff game and having to scrap for a division title.

The larger issue for the Jaguars is the same issue every team on this list faces: the AFC is extremely competitive. Of the 13 teams with the best odds to win the Super Bowl, 9 of them are in the AFC. Of the 12 players with the best odds to win the MVP, 9 of them play in the AFC, including 7 of the top 9 and all of the top 4. The Jaguars could have a tremendous season and still fall well short of winning the AFC simply because of the strength of the teams competing against them.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.