Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 9's Fastest Games

• Advanced Offensive Metrics Provide Better Context: Pass rate over expectation (PROE) and adjusted pace help us better understand team tendencies because they account for game context rather than relying solely on raw play counts.
• Quarterback changes have led to some noticeable pace and pass rate changes in Week 8 for the Falcons and Panthers.
• The Packers might be looking to slow down the offense based on recent trends.

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that when digging into team pace trends.

This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on numerous in-game factors).

NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation

This table shows pass and run plays per game, adjusted pace, pass rate plus pass rate over expectation, pass rate over expectation, and no-huddle rates that exclude two-minute drills.

Full Season

Last Week

2025 Pace and Pass Rate Notes

Pace

• Even accounting for negative game script, the Atlanta Falcons' offense ran quicker in Week 8 than in any week prior with Kirk Cousins under center -- though the efficiency was dreadful.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers also ran faster in Week 8 than usual, breaking 30.0 adjusted seconds per play (29.9) for the first time all season -- a very rare mark for an Aaron Rodgers offense.
• With Andy Dalton at QB, the Carolina Panthers also set a season-best in terms of pace (29.6 adjusted seconds), though the offense had been speeding up in recent weeks prior.
• On the flip side, the Green Bay Packers have started to slow things down again (33.2 and 32.9 adjusted seconds per play in their last two games) after running at 31.2 or quicker in every game prior.
• In their first win of the year, the New York Jets' offense operated at a rate of 32.5 adjusted seconds per play, well above their 29.3 per play mark entering Week 8.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

• The Indianapolis Colts ran a double-digit PROE (+13.1%) for the second straight week (+10.9% last week).
• However, the New Orleans Saints (up 15.3 points from -5.8% to +9.5%) had the largest single-week PROE increase of any Week 8 team.
• The third double-digit increase of the week from the sample leading in belonged to the Green Bay Packers: up 10.2 points to +6.7% from -3.5%.
• Passing volume was down between the Panthers (-18.4% PROE in Week 8) and Buffalo Bills (-11.1%), the only two double-digit drops of the week. Carolina fell from -5.1% through Week 7 by 13.3 points; Buffalo was a -0.3% entering Week 8 but were down 10.8 points in PROE.

NFL Week 9 Pace and Pass Rate Preview

Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

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