Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 8's Fastest Games

• Advanced Offensive Metrics Provide Better Context: Pass rate over expectation (PROE) and adjusted pace help us better understand team tendencies because they account for game context rather than relying solely on raw play counts.
• Changes in San Francisco?: The 49ers offense operated differently in Week 7 than in prior weeks this season.
• PROE Spikes for Indy and LA: The Colts and Rams saw the biggest pass rate over expectation changes of all teams in Week 7.

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that when digging into team pace trends.

This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on numerous in-game factors).

NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation

This table shows pass and run plays per game, adjusted pace, pass rate plus pass rate over expectation, pass rate over expectation, and no-huddle rates that exclude two-minute drills.

Full Season

Last Week

2025 Pace and Pass Rate Notes

Pace

• Since a slow Week 1, the 49ers' offense has been quick, running under 30 adjusted seconds per play in each game since Week 2. They were the fastest adjusted team in Week 7. Their Week 7 pace compared to weeks leading in was the second-biggest jump in tempo trailing just the Titans'.
• Tennessee shaved time off the clock on a per-play basis more than any other offense in Week 7 compared to their full-season number but couldn't turn that into many offensive plays.
• Not only were the Eagles third in pace uptick in Week 7 from their full-season average entering the weekend, but this also is the third straight week they've hovered around the 30-second mark. Since Week 5, they're 14th in adjusted pace.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

• Two teams had PROEs of 10.0% or higher in Week 7: the Colts (+10.9%) and the Rams (+10.9%). This was the second game in three weeks where the Rams had a double-digit PROE and the first of the year for Indy, whose PROE leading in was -2.0%.
• The next largest PROE leaps belonged to the Titans, Bengals, and Jets:
  • Titans: up 8.6 points from -3.6% to +5.0%
  • Bengals: up 8.5 points from +1.2% to +9.7%
  • Jets: up 8.0 points from -8.3% to -0.3%
• Three teams had their PROE drop double digit points from their full-season rates leading in:
  • Browns: down 10.1 points from -3.0% to -13.1%
  • Chiefs: down 10.8 points from +9.7% to -1.1%
    • This was their first negative PROE of the year
  • 49ers: down 12.3 points from +0.8% to -11.5%

NFL Week 8 Pace and Pass Rate Preview

Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

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