Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 6's Fastest Games

• Advanced Offensive Metrics Provide Better Context: Pass rate over expectation (PROE) and adjusted pace help us better understand team tendencies because they account for game context rather than relying solely on raw play counts.
• The Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets notably increased their pass rate in Week 5 even after adjusting for game context.
• After a really pass-happy start to the season, the Los Angeles Chargers' pass rate plummeted in Week 5's loss

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that when digging into team pace trends.

This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on numerous in-game factors).

NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation

This table shows pass and run plays per game, adjusted pace, pass rate plus pass rate over expectation, pass rate over expectation, and no-huddle rates that exclude two-minute drills.

2025 Pace and Pass Rate Notes

Notes After Week 5

Pace

• The New Orleans Saints remain the only team in the league to hold an adjusted pace mark under 30.0 seconds in each game thus far; the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets are close and have done it in four straight.
• The Washington Commanders played faster in Week 5 (28.8) than in recent weeks now that they have Jayden Daniels back, though it's not a massive deviation; they were still pretty fast and also own four games under 30.0 seconds.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

• The Philadelphia Eagles had a +18.1% pass rate over expectation on scrimmage plays in Week 5, the highest of the season. Not just their highest -- but the highest of any team thus far in a game.
• The Kansas City Chiefs did their best to run them down, finishing at +15.4% on Monday Night Football. They are the only team with a positive PROE in every game of the season.
• Three teams have a positive pass rate over expectation in four of five games: the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Los Angeles Chargers (more on them later).
• The Jets' +5.4% pass rate over expectation in Week 5 was their highest of the year and represented the second-largest increase versus a team's full-season rate (behind the Eagles, of course).
• The two other teams with a PROE of 10.0% or higher in Week 5 were the Los Angeles Rams (+10.8%) and Commanders (+10.3%).
• Despite not having Tyreek Hill, the Miami Dolphins posted a +8.9% PROE, their highest of the season and the first positive PROE since Week 1.
• The Baltimore Ravens came in with the lowest PROE (-16.3%) of the week -- not too surprising given the quarterback change -- but even with a backup running back, the Carolina Panthers were second-lowest (-14.3%).
• Another big callout here is the Chargers' -6.5% PROE in Week 5 -- their first negative PROE of the year (and by a good margin, too).

NFL Week 6 Pace and Pass Rate Preview

Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

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