Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 4's Fastest Games

• Advanced Offensive Metrics Provide Better Context: Pass rate over expectation (PROE) and adjusted pace help us better understand team tendencies because they account for game context rather than relying solely on raw play counts.
• Pace Continues to Improve: After a slow start in Week 1, league-wide pace trends ticked up in Week 2 and got even faster in Week 3.
• The 49ers, Chiefs, and Rams all stood out as faster offenses in Week 3 than in the first two weeks of the season.

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that when digging into team pace trends.

This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on numerous in-game factors).

NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation

This table shows pass and run plays per game, adjusted pace, pass rate plus pass rate over expectation, pass rate over expectation, and no-huddle rates that exclude two-minute drills.

2025 Pace and Pass Rate Notes

Notes After Week 3

• League-wide pace has quickened with each week so far this season as teams get more acclimated.
• Week 3 was notably more run-heavy than the first two weeks as we've seen some backup quarterback play -- largely -- lead to lower PROE numbers for teams.
  • The New York Jets' pass rate over expectation climbed to +2.6% with Tyrod Taylor under center, up from -14.9% through two weeks.
  • Sorted by highest PROEs on the year and not by Week 3 decrease, the New York Giants (-10.9%), Los Angeles Rams (-5.2%), Las Vegas Raiders (-15.4%), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.1%), Chicago Bears (-7.4%), and Green Bay Packers (-6.9%) all had lower PROEs than their usual average to date despite not swapping QBs.
• Teams speeding things up notably in Week 3 compared to Weeks 1 and 2 were the San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Rams. We'll continue to monitor.

NFL Week 4 Pace and Pass Rate Preview

Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

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