Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 2's Fastest Games

• Advanced Offensive Metrics Provide Better Context: Pass rate over expectation (PROE) and adjusted pace help us better understand team tendencies because they account for game context rather than relying solely on raw play counts.
• Coaching Changes Could Shift Trends in 2025: Several teams, including the Cowboys, Saints, Seahawks, and Jets, have new offensive coordinators or head coaches whose past tendencies suggest potential shifts in pace and passing strategy heading into Week 1.
• Eyes on Detroit: We will likely learn a lot about the Lions' offensive tendencies after Detroit's coordinator change and a pace-down matchup in Week 1.

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that when digging into team pace trends.

This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on numerous in-game factors).

NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation

This table shows pass and run plays per game, adjusted pace, pass rate plus pass rate over expectation, pass rate over expectation, and no-huddle rates that exclude two-minute drills.

2025 Pace and Pass Rate Notes

Adjusted pace tends to stabilize pretty quickly, and we can learn a lot from Week 1 (the r^2 between Week 1 pace numbers and full-season pace numbers last year was 0.47 -- compared to 0.32 for PROE and just 0.05 for plays per game).

What are some of the key takeaways from Week 1?

Week 1 Notes

• Teams played a bit slower in Week 1 than in the 2024 season, though it's not uncommon for a slower Week 1 than usual.
• Teams notably up in pace:
  • New Orleans Saints: Under Kellen Moore, the Saints were the fastest team in the league in Week 1 after already being a top-four team a year ago.
  • New York Jets: The Jets' were speedier in Week 1 than with Aaron Rodgers under center in 2024 -- not a huge surprise.
• Teams notably down in pace:
  • Detroit Lions: With a new OC, the Lions were a bottom-six team by adjusted pace in Week 1 after ranking fifth in 2024.
  • Tennessee Titans: Tennessee was about average in pace in 2024 but operated as the second-slowest team in the league with a rookie QB on the road against a tough defense.
  • Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs were third in adjusted pace last year but are 21st after Week 1.
  • Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings were down in pace (17th to 28th) but also plummeted in PROE (3rd to 29th) with J.J. McCarthy under center.

NFL Week 2 Pace and Pass Rate Preview

Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.