A Healthy Lamar Jackson Can Finish as the Quarterback Rushing Leader

Despite being limited to 12 games last season, Lamar Jackson still finished with 764 rushing yards -- second among quarterbacks. After taking home the quarterback rushing leader crown three years in a row from 2018-20, Jackson has now finished second the past two seasons.

Still, Lamar hasn't played close to a full season in either of the last two years. He remains one of the most effective rushers in the league on a per-carry basis and, consequently, enters 2023 with the second-shortest odds to lead the quarterback position in rushing, per the NFL odds in the season leader markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Let's dive into what it'll take for him to take home the crown again in 2023.

QB Rushing Leader Trends

Here's how the past five quarterback rushing leaders have fared, starting with incumbent and odds-on favorite, Justin Fields.

Fields' 2022 season was only the fourth 1,000-yard rushing season from a quarterback since 2000 -- joining Michael Vick ('06) and Lamar Jackson ('19, '20). Other than those three, only Kyler Murray in ('20) and Russell Wilson ('14) even eclipsed the 800-yard mark.

The most common theme in Jackson's three league-leading seasons was health. From 2018-20, Lamar appeared in at least 15 games in all three years. In the last two seasons, he suited up for just 12 a piece. Health is the biggest variable in him retaking the crown in 2023 -- although a revamped offensive scheme is certainly a question mark, as well.

Lamar Jackson 2023 Rushing Outlook

Despite finishing second in quarterback rushing the past two years, his efficiency remained elite. Jackson is still one of the most productive runners in the league on a per-game basis.

Last season he trailed only Justin Fields in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks. He was slightly less efficient compared to his early years but his Net Expected Points (NEP) per play actually went up compared to the previous two seasons.

On a per-game basis, Lamar has been on pace for over 1,000 yards each of the past two seasons. While that alone may not get him the rushing crown with Fields and rookie Anthony Richardson around, any potential rushing title starts with his health.

Lamar has appeared in exactly 12 games the past two seasons -- missing the end of the year in 2021 due to an ankle injury and last year because of a knee injury. While he'll have to prove he can stay healthy over the course of a full, 17-game season in 2023, it's worth noting that he appeared in at least 15 games each of his first three years and only missed a single game in college. While his run-first style would lead you to believe he is more susceptible to injury, run frequency is not a reliable predictor of quarterback injuries.

That said, all signs are pointing toward the Ravens looking like a completely different offense in 2023. With new offensive coordinator Todd Monken in town, even the players expect Baltimore to throw the ball and be explosive. Monken hasn't couched in the NFL since 2019, but his offenses twice ('17, '18) ranked in the top five in passing attempts and yards.

Still, he hasn't had a dual-threat quarterback like Lamar before.

There's certainly an argument that an uptick in passing volume could actually help Lamar's rushing numbers. Of his 112 rushing attempts only 24 (21.4%) came via scrambles. That marked the lowest scramble rate since his rookie season.

*(%) denotes the percentage of total carries that were scrambles.

Compare those numbers to Fields (who scrambled a league-high 69 times for 9.6 yards per carry) and Hurts (who scrambled 44 times for 7.8 yards per carry) and you start to see why Lamar wasn't racking up the rushing yards in the same capacity as he used to. He isn't partaking in the most efficient offensive play in football -- the scramble.

Per Football Outsiders, quarterback scrambles average an absurd 73.3% DVOA, 7.6 yards per play, and a 59.8% success rate. Compare that to designed quarterback runs which, while still effective, average 25.3% DVOA, 5.0 yards per play, and a 65.6% success rate. So, while designed runs (like what Jackson's entire offense used to be predicated on) are more successful on average, they lack the explosive, big-play potential that scrambles generate. If we're looking for Lamar to lead the position in rushing, he has to scramble more.

In theory, that would come with an uptick in passing volume. With more chances to throw, Lamar should scramble more. That would do wonders for his rushing yardage. He wasn't quite as prolific as Fields but, last year, still managed 8.2 yards per scramble attempt -- the most since his MVP season.

Lamar certainly has it in him to retake the rushing crown, and seeing him do so would be far from surprising. The biggest variable is his health but even then, the competition is far greater than his first few seasons in the league. Though Baltimore's offense could help spur him to more explosive rushing plays, it likely won't have a major impact on his rushing totals. A player of his caliber is going to get his regardless of scheme.

A bet on Lamar Jackson to win the quarterback rushing crown is a bet on Lamar Jackson staying healthy. Though he's struggled to do so the last two seasons, nothing about his injury history leads me to believe he's injury-prone. Thus, he's a great value to retake the throne and leading the position in rushing yet again in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.