5 Bold Predictions for the 2025 Men's College Basketball Tournament

That's right, folks. It's March. College basketball dominates the sports world for a couple of weeks.

It's time to fire up the ol' "Hot Take Factory" once more.

A time of the year as wild and unpredictable as the men's college basketball tournament will call for some pretty bold predictions that come true -- and several timid ones that don't.

As you fill out your bracket, here are five of my favorite hot takes from mine. Don't say I didn't warn you if I'm right.

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Men's Tournament Bold Predictions

Duke Doesn't Make the National Semifinals (4 Teams)

There are a lot of "yeah, but, if, and except" KenPom trends out there about who can win the national championship. Here are four uniform KenPom criteria for each of the last 24 seasons:

• Top-25 Overall Ranking
• Top-60 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
• Top-45 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
• Top-55 Strength of Schedule Efficiency Rating

Believe it or not, the last criteria would eliminate the Duke Blue Devils, who rank just 56th in a weaker-than-normal ACC. I believe they also got a pretty tough draw.

Alabama and Wisconsin both meet that criteria as the 2 and 3 seeds, respectively, in the region. Tommy Lloyd's Arizona Wildcats are a pretty tough out with Caleb Love's immense tournament experience. Even dark horses like Oregon, BYU, and VCU have top-40 KenPom rankings on both sides of the ball. BYU is one of Brandon Gdula's 10 most underrated teams in the tournament, too.

Duke's resumé is outstanding on paper, so I could end up just revising the final criteria to "top 60" next year, but add in the weirdness of Cooper Flagg's ankle injury and an enormous amount of futures market love already, and I'm fading the Blue Devils in my primary bracket.

They're -140 to win this region. Give me a field line, FanDuel.

A Double-Digit Seed Makes the South Regional Semifinals (16 Teams)

The South is the oddest region in the tournament. There are a ton of red flags around some of the best teams in this region -- besides Auburn.

Michigan State is a 2 seed that was unranked in the preseason. Teams fitting that criteria are 0-37 in reaching the national semis, and they flamed out of the Big Ten Tournament as is.

Iowa State is the 3 seed and suffered a huge blow recently, losing star guard Keshon Gilbert to injury. ISU would be a title contender at full strength, but that's an enormous dent to their chances.

Texas A&M is 44th on offense in KenPom with a glacial tempo. Michigan is a popular pick to lose to UC San Diego, who are second to only a play-in team, North Carolina, in overall KenPom rankings for a double-digit seed. Oh, the Tar Heels are also in this region if they make it into the tournament.

Between UNC, UC San Diego, Yale (facing A&M), and 10 seed New Mexico, who are 19th in overall defense at KenPom, this region's double-digit seeds are strong, and the top seeds are vulnerable. This could be the spot where the bracket gets weird.

Bryant Upsets Michigan State

This would only make the South weirder.

My favorite upset in the first round of the tournament is the Bryant Bulldogs. Yes, that's a 15 seed over 2 seed Michigan State in a seed matchup that, historically, has gone to the favorites 93.0% of the time.

Honestly, Bryant doesn't feel like a 15 seed. Their entire lineup logging at least 65.0% of their minutes is 6'6" or taller, presenting a size advantage over the Spartans. They have four starters scoring double digits per game, including leading point-getters Rafael Pinzon (18.3 PPG) and Earl Timberlake (15.5 PPG) at the all-important guard spots.

My introduction to them was forward Barry Evans' ability to jump out of the gym. Evans led them in scoring in the American East Tournament finale with 17 points. They posted a +44 point differential in three tournament games to win the crown.

Saint Peter's overcame massive size deficits to go on a magical run two years ago, but honestly, Bryant probably won't be athletically intimidated by anyone this side of Auburn in their draw. Don't be totally floored if they're the team who makes the previous prediction come true. Remember, Tom Izzo and MSU lost as a 2 seed to Middle Tennessee State back in 2016.

They're +1160 to get it done at FanDuel if you're with me. Talk about a potential "Dog of the Day".

Michigan Makes the Regional Semifinals (16 Teams)

Okay, maybe I'm obsessed with this year's South.

This might be even crazier considering some of the madness, but I think a popular Cinderella pick is going to roll their ankle on the way to the ballroom. UC San Diego's KenPom analytics are sparkling, but the actual basketball game on the court is going to be a challenge for them.

The Michigan Wolverines are well-equipped to fight off mid-majors with two quality seven-footers, Vladislav Golden and Danny Wolf. Wolf is an athletic, Nikola Jokic-esque ball-handler at that height, which will prove to be awkward for a Tritons team that plays just one guy over 6'6". Toss that top-40 KenPom and Bart Torvik defense out the window.

From there, they'll either draw an underwhelming Texas A&M offense or Yale, undersized themselves, off an upset to reach the regional semis.

In the Big Ten Championship, Wisconsin was able to grind out a win over the Wolverines in an ugly game where neither team was able to make a three. They still proved their might with a win over Maryland before that.

Frankly, I feel the Wolverines are destined for an eventual meeting with a superior Auburn team, but they're +210 to even make it there.

The SEC Puts At Least Three Teams in the National Semifinals (4 Teams)

One conference making up 75.0% or more of the national semis would be an earth-shattering, blistering hot take in any other year.

This year? Maybe less so.

The SEC put a record 13 teams into the first round and could add a 14th if Texas can beat Xavier on Wednesday. Four of the six teams with the shortest odds win the men's college basketball national championship are from the SEC, as well:

Personally, two teams from the SEC have a wide-open runway to be one of the last four teams left in the tournament. I've mentioned Auburn's relative strength in the wonky South region at several points already, but Florida is also a strong choice from the West region.

The West's 2 seed, St. John's, falls in the same perilous unranked-to-top-eight trajectory as Michigan State. Its 3 seed, Texas Tech, went 1-4 against top-25 teams this year. Florida just beat four ranked teams in their last five games.

From there, Alabama is a threat to knock off Duke if the aforementioned historical criteria holds. Tennessee and Kentucky are two of the top-three seeds in the Midwest. This conference is loaded with contenders, so this year's national semifinals in San Antonio could have a ton of southern flavor.

You can also download our FREE college basketball printable bracket.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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