5 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Saturday 12/28/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

Today's Best NBA Bets and Player Props

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks

Heat Moneyline (+112)
Terry Rozier Over 12.5 Points (-125)

The Atlanta Hawks are a fun, high-paced team, but that often leaves them overvalued in betting markets.

With these teams on equal rest, Atlanta just doesn't deserve favored status here -- especially with Trae Young (heel) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (leg) questionable to provide that scoring pop. The Hawks' -2.3 net rating (NRTG) is also negative in the last 10 games (-0.3 NRTG).

I think this line is a perception of dysfunction for the Miami Heat around Jimmy Butler's trade request, but Butler (knee) hasn't been consistently with the team for a while. That didn't stop Miami's win on Thursday -- nor a +4.8 NRTG in their last 10 games (7th-best in the NBA).

The Heat are the better team, and it's always hard to envision Atlanta's poor defense (113.6 DRTG) not coming down to the last possession or two at +120.

One of the guards who can take advantage of that defense? Terry Rozier.

It's been far from a clean start to the year for "Scary Terry"; his 12.1 points per game (PPG) would be a new career-low in a season since breaking out as a full-time starter. He's not currently doing that as Miami's sixth man, but his 26.5 minutes per game in December are also trending up.

On Saturday, Rozier faces an Atlanta squad allowing the sixth-most points per game to opposing point guards (25.6) that has also allowed the most three-point attempts per game (41.6). 48.8% of his shots come from deep, enhancing this particular outlook.

FanDuel Research's daily NBA projections expect 14.5 points from Rozier at a median in this one.

Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets

Pistons Over 113.5 Points (-110)
Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 9.5 Points (-128)

The Denver Nuggets are in hot water.

With Aaron Gordon (groin) sidelined for an extended period again, the Nuggets' defensive issues are even worse. Denver's 113.7 DRTG (12th-worst in the NBA) plummets to 117.4 in games where Gordon didn't play. That would be fourth-worst in the NBA extrapolated to a whole season.

Since the forward's injury, Denver has surrendered 129.5 points per game. The Detroit Pistons are no world-beaters, but their 111.3 offensive rating (ORTG; 18th in the NBA) is serviceable when they've also topped 114 points in five straight contests.

There's an argument to be made Denver has the worst defense in the league of teams trying right now. While not wanting to fade the reigning MVP's chances to win a shootout, the Motors will score here.

If we're expecting Detroit points, there's probably a gem in the prop market.

I think it could be Tim Hardaway Jr. fresh off a comeback win where he was outshined by insane performances by backcourt mates Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey. THJ was limited to just six points in that one, but he's averaging 12.9 points per 36 minutes this season.

Averaging 27.4 minutes per game in December, he could smash this prop in the first half with a quick start -- one Denver's defense can provide. The Nuggets are allowing the second-most made threes per game to small forwards (3.4).

Pick your line with that the case. Hardaway isn't just a three-point shooter, but 68.2% of his shots come from deep. While he's +160 to make three triples, I prefer his points prop based on our projections. We're expecting 12.4 points but just 2.4 made threes at a median.

Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers

Kings +2 (-114)

The "dead cat bounce" is an NFL betting cliché about recently fired coaches. I have no idea if it exists in the NBA's less significant sample, but the Sacramento Kings have just flatly been unlucky.

Sactown has a +1.6 NRTG (13th in the NBA) that's improved to +3.5 over their last 10 games, but their 13-18 record led to firing head coach Mike Brown on Friday. They've been sorely unfortunate in "clutch" games (6-13), which are packed with insane amounts of variance. A bad ownership and front office might try to pin that variance on coaching.

Nonetheless, tonight makes for a soft debut for interim coach Doug Christie. The Los Angeles Lakers have a -2.8 NRTG but are 8-7 in what the NBA defines in as a clutch game.

This line implies confidence that Domantas Sabonis (illness) will return on Saturday, and Anthony Davis' uncomfy ankle sprain on Christmas for L.A seems more problematic despite his insistence it's fine. This line could head Sacramento's way if injury news breaks right.

Kings Moneyline (+112) could shave juice off this line, but it'd be a bit ironic if they failed to execute in a one-possession game tonight, no? I'll stick to the spread.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.