4 NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 9
Taking anytime touchdown props via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a fun way to wager on the NFL.
Which touchdown picks make sense for this week? Let's dig in.
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Best NFL TD Bets: Week 9
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Drake London Anytime Touchdown (+125)
There's a lot to like with Drake London this week as he prepares to take on the Dallas Cowboys. Besides the Atlanta Falcons having the second-highest implied total (27.25) of the teams playing on Sunday, the Cowboys are giving up the sixth-highest target rate (21.6%) and seventh-most yards per route run (1.76) to WRs this season, via NextGenStats.
Even though Dallas' defense has surrendered the fifth-fewest receiving TDs (5) to WRs, they are allowing the second-most points per game (28.3) in the NFL. Additionally, our NFL Daily Projections forecast Kirk Cousins recording the most passing TDs (1.97) among the QBs suiting up on Sunday, giving London ample opportunities to find the end zone.
As for London, the talented wideout is producing the highest target share (26.2%), second-highest air yards share (32.4%), highest red-zone target share (44.4%), and most yards per route run (1.95) of Atlanta's skill players who have played on 50% of the offensive snaps. The valuable red-zone usage has led to London scoring a TD in five of his eight starts this year.
Only CeeDee Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson are being given a better chance to score a receiving TD than London by our projections. All three of those WRs have -105 odds or shorter to cross the goal line in Week 9.
Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+115)
Brian Robinson is currently present on the injury report for the Washington Commanders with a hamstring ailment, but all signs point to him being active on Sunday versus the New York Giants. Across the seven games he's started in this season, Robinson is logging 15.7 touches, 77.1 scrimmage yards, and 0.9 rushing TDs per game as Washington's featured back.
On top of that, Robinson has earned a team-high 41.7% red-zone rushing share despite Austin Ekeler and Jayden Daniels also being threats in the ground game. Daniels continues to deal with a rib injury that forced him to exit early in Week 7, so I'd expect Washington to lean on Robinson whenever the Commanders get themselves in scoring position this week.
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The matchup is a favorable one for Robinson with the Giants giving up the most yards per attempt (5.4) and second-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (1.33) to RBs. Even though New York's defense has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing TDs (3) to RBs, the yardage they are ceding to opposing teams suggests they should be permitting more TDs.
Through eight starts to begin his career, Daniels has thrown for one or fewer touchdowns in six of them. With the Commanders boasting a 24-point implied total on Sunday, I'm expecting Robinson to have multiple chances to hit pay dirt.
Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown (+135)
In last week's touchdown picks piece, I took Tyreek Hill to score a TD with Tua Tagovailoa making his much-anticipated return to the offense, only for Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane to be the TD recipients in Week 8. Considering that Hill has gone from +105 odds to score last week to +135 odds this week, I'm all over Hill again despite the matchup versus the Buffalo Bills.
Upon looking at the three games Tua has started in this season, Hill leads the Miami Dolphins in target share (24.3%), air yards share (46.3%), and yards per route run (2.43) while earning the second-highest red-zone target rate (29.0%) among Miami's skill players who have played 50% of the snaps during that span. For the second straight week, Hill is listed on the injury report with a foot injury, but it didn't prevent him from suiting up last Sunday.
Sunday's AFC East clash between the Dolphins and Bills has the second-highest total in Week 9, and Miami has a modest 21.5-point implied total. Being that Hill's best chance of scoring is through the air, a negative or competitive game script for the Dolphins would give him plenty of chances to score his first TD since Week 1.
With Miami looking to avoid falling to 2-6 on the season, Hill should be force-fed the ball early and often in this week's pivotal game. Our projections are handing Hill the fifth-best chance (0.47) to score a receiving TD among WRs who are playing on Sunday, with the other four WRs earning +120 odds or shorter to score.
A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+120)
The Jacksonville Jaguars may want to stray away from deploying man-coverage frequently with A.J. Brown and the Philadelphia Eagles hosting them in Week 9. Entering this week, the Jaguars are playing man-coverage at the fifth-highest rate (40.1%) and have the fourth-lowest pressure rate (28.0%) in the NFL.
That sort of combination likely has Jalen Hurts already thinking of how he's going to celebrate when he hits No. 11 for their 4th TD connection of the season. According to PFF, Brown has the 7th-most yards per reception (20.2), 10th-most receiving TDs (2), and most yards per route run (5.20) of the WRs with 10-plus targets against man-coverage this season.
In the four games he's been active in, Brown is sporting team-high marks in target share (34.9%), air yards share (53.7%), yards per route run (4.21), and end-zone target share (50.0%). Meanwhile, the Jaguars are giving up the eighth-most yards per route run (1.74), eighth-most receiving TDs (9), and seventh-highest catch rate over expected (+3.3%) to the WR position.
Even with Hurts and Saquon Barkley having decent shots to find the end zone in Week 9, Philly has the fifth-highest implied total (26.5) of the teams playing on Sunday. If there are any moments where the Jaguars line up one-on-one with Brown, there's a high chance the ball is heading in his direction.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
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