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4 NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 7

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin

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4 NFL Touchdown Picks for Week 7

Taking anytime touchdown props via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a fun way to wager on the NFL.

Which touchdown picks make sense for this week? Let's dig in.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Best NFL TD Bets: Week 7

Chase Brown Anytime Touchdown (+155)

During the Week 6 victory for the Cincinnati Bengals, there was a notable change in the backfield once Zack Moss lost a fumble. For the first time this season, Chase Brown logged a higher snap rate (61.5%) and at least the same route rate (41.2%) as Moss, via NextGenStats.

Even with Brown having a fumble of his own in Week 6, he managed to record 64 scrimmage yards and a long touchdown on 12 total touches. Up to this point, Brown has been more efficient and effective than Moss, registering 0.95 rushing yards over expected per attempt and a 51.0% rushing success rate (compared to Moss posting -0.70 rushing yards over expected per attempt and a forgettable 31.7% rushing success rate).

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Chase Brown

While the Bengals have been in negative game scripts for the majority of this season, this week presents them an opportunity to run the ball a bit more as they are nearly touchdown favorites on the road versus the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland's offense has struggled to move the ball consistently on offense, which has led to them ranking 21st in schedule-adjusted run defense and allowing the eighth-most rushing touchdowns (6) to running backs.

If the shift we saw in Cincy's backfield from last week sticks in Week 7, then I think there is value in taking Brown to find the end zone at these odds -- even if Moss continues to have a role in the offense. Our NFL DFS projections are giving Brown the same chance (0.42) to score a rushing touchdown as Chuba Hubbard, who is carrying -125 odds to score on Sunday.

Drake London Anytime Touchdown (+125)

For the second straight week, we'll be backing Drake London to score a touchdown for the Atlanta Falcons. After hauling in a touchdown in Week 6, London has now found the end zone in four of his last five games, and his role in the offense is tough to ignore.

Entering Week 7, London is pacing the Falcons in target share (27.6%), yards per route run (2.12), and red-zone target share (43.5%). In addition to that, London is also posting a valuable 34.0% air yards share and 33.3% end-zone target share, which is second on the team behind Kyle Pitts.

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Drake London

The Falcons possess the second-highest implied total (26.75) of the teams playing on Sunday, and the Seahawks have surrendered 29-plus points in three consecutive games. Sunday's contest between Atlanta and Seattle is expected to feature plenty of points, so taking Kirk Cousins' go-to option in the passing game to cross the goal line isn't the worst idea.

There's a chance standout cornerback Tariq Woolen is inactive for the Seahawks, so Seattle's secondary could be lacking size to cover London this week. At the moment, our projections are giving London the second-best chance (0.58) to score a receiving touchdown among the WRs who play Sunday, behind only Justin Jefferson.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+145)

Another game with a high total this week involves the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings, with the Vikings favored at home. Even though Minnesota's defense has proven to be an elite unit through the first six weeks, the fact they blitz at the third-highest rate (41.5%) puts Amon-Ra St. Brown in position to be extremely busy in Week 7.

St. Brown leads Detroit's offense in target share (28.6%) with a formidable 1.99 yards per route run. He owns an average depth of target of 7.4 yards, making him a go-to option for Jared Goff in a game where the Vikings want to generate plenty of quick pressure. While the Lions would love to pound the rock and lean on their backfield duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, they can also use their short passing game as an extension of their running game.

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Despite Minnesota's defense giving up the 11th-fewest receiving touchdowns (5) to receivers, they are allowing the fourth-most receptions (88), third-most targets (146), and fifth-most receiving yards (1,046) to the position. The Vikings are also permitting the third-most end-zone targets (13) to wideouts, and while other teams have struggled to convert their chances versus Minnesota, the Lions lean on ARSB often in the red area as he owns a team-high 32.1% red-zone target share.

Most weeks, St. Brown is typically closer to the +100 odds range to score a touchdown. Even though Detroit isn't favored to come away with a win on Sunday, I want to take advantage of St. Brown's touchdown odds in Week 7.

Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown (+130)

Before the Kansas City Chiefs had their bye week in Week 6, Kareem Hunt was emerging as the team's featured back amid the absence of Isiah Pacheco. Across his first two games back with the Chiefs in Weeks 4 and 5, Hunt led the running backs on the team in snap rate (54.3%) and route rate (37.2%) while averaging 22 total touches and 101 scrimmage yards per game during that span.

Just to compare, Samaje Perine and Carson Steele combined for a 51.4% snap rate, 42.3% route rate, 7 total touches per game, and 20.5 scrimmage yards per game during that same two-game sample. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been activated to the roster ahead of Sunday's matchup versus the San Francisco 49ers, but I'd still expect Hunt to get the valuable touches in this offense.

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Kareem Hunt

Even if CEH or the other backs garner snaps, Hunt should maintain a role in the red zone and near the goal line as the Chiefs no longer have Patrick Mahomes run the ball often in that area of the field. Additionally, Kansas City's offense may need to lean on the run more with Rashee Rice out for the rest of the season, and San Fran is ranked 18th in schedule-adjusted run defense and 8th in schedule-adjusted pass defense entering Week 7.

Betting on Hunt to score certainly comes with some risk as the Chiefs run plenty of trick plays in the red zone to get the ball to different players. That being said, if Kansas City finds themselves in a short-yardage situation near the goal line, there's a good chance Hunt will be lined up in the backfield as he's earned a 62.5% red-zone rushing share since rejoining the Chiefs.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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