4 NFL DFS Values to Target in Week 4

Finding value is a key part of NFL DFS on FanDuel. We need to identify the low-salary players who have the potential to pay huge dividends, which allows you to play studs elsewhere in your lineup.

As always, we're looking at players on the main slate, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.

NFL DFS Value Plays to Target for Week 4

Andy Dalton, QB, Carolina Panthers

FanDuel Salary: ($7,000)

The Red Rifle is back and better than ever.

Andy Dalton made his first start of the season last week, and he did not disappoint. En route to leading the Carolina Panthers to their first win of the season, Dalton threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns, netting 24.6 FanDuel points (FPs).

He's now cleared 300 passing yards in each of his last two NFL starts -- a notable milestone given FanDuel's DFS scoring changes this season. A quarterback is now awarded an additional 3 FPs for cracking 300 yards.

Dalton throwing for 300 yards again this week is certainly a bold prediction for Week 4, but a revenge game with the Cincinnati Bengals does give him upside in DFS.

The Bengals were just lit up for 254 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a 91.3% completion percentage via Jayden Daniels last week. That dropped them to 29th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, and they've yielded the fourth-highest success rate through the air. They've also generated a below-average pressure rate, meanwhile the Panthers sport PFF's No. 8 offensive line heading into Week 4.

On top of that, the Bengals have been buried by the long ball, permitting the fifth-most yards per deep target. That plays right into Dalton's strengths considering he was PFF's top-graded passer on throws 20+ yards downfield last week.

It doesn't hurt that this game features the main slate's second highest over/under (46.5), nor that the visiting Bengals are 4.5-point favorites. If the Panthers fall behind early, we could see Dalton air it out even more than he did last week when Carolina sported a +5.2% pass rate over expectation -- a mark dramatically higher than the -10.4% PROE they posted in Weeks 1 and 2.

All that lines up for another quality fantasy outing for Dalton.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

FanDuel Salary: ($6,500)

Chuba Hubbard was one of the primary beneficiaries of Dalton taking over under center. After combining for 11 FPs in Weeks 1 and 2, Hubbard exploded for 28.4 FPs last week. He finished with 169 total yards and a touchdown.

The utilization was phenomenal, as you'd expect from someone with such a lofty fantasy output. Though he still only played 60% of Carolina's snaps, Hubbard led the way with 31 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and 3 red zone rush attempts in addition to 2 red zone targets.

He's now seen 51 adjusted opportunities compared to 24 for Miles Sanders the last two games.

That sets him up for another big week against Cincinnati.

The Bengals rank 26th in schedule-adjusted run defense entering Week 4, and they've yielded the eighth-highest success rate to opposing backs. Cincy's defense has struggled as a whole, as evidenced by Carolina's palatable 21-point implied total. Considering Hubbard's red zone role, that puts him in a decent position to score on the ground.

He has +105 odds to score a touchdown on FanDuel Sportsbook.

According to our NFL DFS projections, Hubbard is the second-best point-per-dollar value running back on the main slate. We project him for 13.2 FPs.

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

FanDuel Salary: ($6,100)

I'm going to have a silly amount of George Pickens in DFS this week.

Pickens hasn't popped yet this season, peaking with 10.5 FPs in Week 1 while failing to crack double digits each of the past two games.

But his utilization remains rock-solid, and he enters Week 4 ranked 13th among receivers with at least 10 targets in yards per route run (2.31). He leads the Pittsburgh Steelers in target share (25.4%) and air yard share (49.5%) while running a route on 73.6% of drop backs.

Now, Pittsburgh's -10.6% pass rate over expectation has limited his overall volume, but we've seen him pop despite limited usage in the past. Last year, Pickens cracked 20 FPS three times. In two of those games, he recorded just four receptions.

He's also faced a slew of tough matchups to open the season -- something that won't continue in Week 4.

This week, Pickens and the Steelers visit the Indianapolis Colts in an indoor game. The Colts have been dreadful defending opposing wideouts, allowing the ninth-most FPs per target, ninth-most yards per route run, and third-highest average depth of target (aDOT) to the position. They enter Week 4 ranked 22nd in schedule-adjusted pass defense.

This is a potential blow-up spot for the explosive receiver, and his low salary makes him an easy addition to any lineup.

We project Pickens for 10.5 FPs via 4.2 receptions and 63.8 receiving yards. His receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears

FanDuel Salary: ($5,300)

Last week, Cole Kmet's DFS salary on FanDuel was $5,000. 10 receptions, 97 yards, and 20.7 FPs later, and his salary has inched up to just $5,300.

Huh?

Granted, that came with the Chicago Bears attempting a season-high 52 passes -- something that's unlikely to happen again. But considering Kmet's route participation (66.1%) and target share (17.5%) both increased dramatically compared to the first two weeks, I'm bullish he can maintain a significant role in this Chicago passing attack.

Given their matchup with the Los Angeles Rams, that makes Kmet the low-salary tight end to target this week.

LA sits at 31st in schedule-adjusted pass defense, and they've struggled to contain opposing tight ends all season. Against the position, the Rams have allowed the most FPs per target, fourth-most yards per route run, and highest catch rate.

Those ugly per-target numbers give him upside even if Keenan Allen is able to return this week.

We project Kmet for 7.0 FPs despite him carrying the position's 14th-highest salary.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.