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4 NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 7

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD

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4 NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 7

Finding value is a key part of NFL DFS on FanDuel. We need to identify the low-salary players who have the potential to pay huge dividends, which allows you to play studs elsewhere in your lineup.

As always, we're looking at players on the main slate, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.

NFL DFS Value Plays for Week 7

Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Salary: ($7,200)

Kirk Cousins is the most glaring value at quarterback when you drop down to the low-$7,000 range. Though Cousins is coming off a mild performance in a game the Atlanta Falcons won by 18 points, this week's matchup against the Seattle Seahawks hints at a game environment more similar to what Atlanta saw two weeks ago when they scored 36 points and Cousins threw for 509 yards.

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Oct 20 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Seahawks-Falcons is indoors, and it's tied for the highest over/under (51.5) on the slate. But it also features a tight spread (Falcons -3) and is projected to be Week 7's fastest-paced game by adjusted pace.

The matchup against Seattle isn't bad, either. The Seahawks are 16th in schedule-adjusted pass defense (per numberFire) and middle-of-the-pack in FanDuel (FD) points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. But they haven't faced an onslaught of quality passers, with Bo Nix (13.02 FD points), Jacoby Brissett (10.52), and Skylar Thompson (4.28) all struggling against them to open the season.

However, the last three weeks saw Jared Goff (26.68 FD points), Daniel Jones (22.08), and Brock Purdy (24.1) carve them up for 20-plus fantasy points, and Kirk's recent play suggests he's more than capable of following suit. Cousins' Week 5 outburst has inflated his numbers, but he's 10th in yards per attempt and tied for 6th in EPA per dropback in the last three weeks. The Falcons are sixth in pass rate over expectation (+2.0%) over that span.

That sets up Cousins for another ceiling game in one of the main slate's best DFS environments.

Our NFL DFS projections have Cousins going for 17.9 FanDuel points, making him the second best point-per-dollar value at the position.

De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

FanDuel Salary: ($6,900)

As of Thursday afternoon, there's not an obvious value running back -- though that could change based on injuries news (more on that below). But if we're trying to dip under $7,000, De'Von Achane's utilization, salary, and matchup stick out like a sore thumb.

Achane was limited to just 11 snaps in the Miami Dolphins' most recent game after suffering a concussion, but he shed the red no-contact jersey in practice following their Week 6 bye and looks likely to suit up on Sunday.

If we look at just his first four games, Achane was averaging 24.3 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), 88 scrimmage yards, and 14.3 FanDuel points per game. Granted, we've yet to see him in a full game with Raheem Mostert healthy and Tyler Huntley under center. But he doubled Mostert's adjusted opportunities with both active in Week 1, and the 'Fins fed Mostert and Jaylen Wright a combined 36 adjusted opportunities and 184 scrimmage yards with Huntley at the helm in Week 5.

Mostert's and Wright's effectiveness shouldn't have too much of an impact on Achane's usage, assuming he's cleared for Sunday. We project him for 19.6 adjusted opportunities, although it's notable that Huntley gave Achane a 14.6% target share in their lone full game together.

Huntley -- a former Pro Bowler -- had a full bye week to get more acclimated with Miami's offense, so I'm bullish on Miami's offense as a whole in such a soft matchup indoors against the Indianapolis Colts.

Indy is 22nd in schedule-adjusted defense. They're 26th against the pass and 9th against the run. That hasn't stopped them from letting up big fantasy performances to running backs, however. They've permitted the 12th most FanDuel points to the position, and Achane can feast in the passing game considering Indy's 20.8% target rate allowed to running backs (11th highest).

That makes Achane an intriguing option on a week lacking low salary backs with defined roles.

That said, there are a few backfields that could open up more value based on injuries news. Keep an eye on the following injuries as we head into the weekend:

If any of those starters are out, their backups would likely project as top point-per-dollar values at the position.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Salary: ($6,300)

I'm high on the Atlanta passing game against the Seahawks, and Darnell Mooney is no exception. In Week 6, Mooney took a step back after his 30-point outburst in Week 5, but his season-long utilization is uber-intriguing at a $6,300 salary.

Through six weeks, Mooney has established himself as the clear second option in the Falcons' air attack. He's second on the team in target share (23%), red zone target share (17.6%), and receiving yards per game (61.3) while pacing the receiving room in air yard share (34.2%) and downfield targets (10-plus yards) per game (4.7).

That's helped him record eight-plus receptions twice -- a benchmark that's on the table in what's expected to be a fast-paced, back-and-forth game against Seattle.

The Seahawks have some quality players in their secondary, and they've done a good job defending opposing receivers on the year. But, again, they haven't faced many quality receiving rooms. In their last three games (against the Lions, Giants, and 49ers), Seattle has surrendered the most FD points per target and second most yards per route run to the position.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans

FanDuel Salary: ($5,300)

Dalton Schultz wasn't especially productive in his first full game without Nico Collins, and that has resulted in his DFS salary holding steady at a manageable $5,300. But his utilization over the last two games bodes well for his Week 7 outlook.

Over the last two weeks, Schultz has the second highest target share (21.2%) on the Houston Texans. Last week, that number was 25.8%. His route rate has crept to 79.2% in those two games, and he's been on the field for every one of Houston's red zone plays.

That didn't deliever much fantasy success, but the usage was there. According to PFF's expected fantasy points model, Schultz has scored 10.7 fewer points than expected the last two weeks.

In a road date against the Green Bay Packers, we could see Schultz rebound in a big way. Green Bay is just 12th in adjusted pass defense, and they've permitted an above average number of fantasy points per target to opposing tight ends. On the year, the Packers have allowed the fourth highest target rate and sixth most yards per route run to the position.

With this game showing a healthy 47.5-point over/under, Schultz has touchdown upside, too. He's fourth among all tight ends in red zone snap rate (91.8%) this season.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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