4 NFL DFS Value Picks for Week 5

Finding value is a key part of NFL DFS on FanDuel. We need to identify the low-salary players who have the potential to pay huge dividends, which allows you to play studs elsewhere in your lineup.

As always, we're looking at players on the main slate, which kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.

All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.

NFL DFS Value Plays for Week 5

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

FanDuel Salary: ($7,000)

I'll be the first one to admit that Trevor Lawrence has stunk this season. He's in Deshaun Watson/Anthony Richardson territory in terms of success rate and has racked up double-digit rushing yards just once in four games. As a result, Lawrence has yet to exceed 15 FanDuel (FD) points in a game this season.

That's come alongside a disgusting 53.3% completion percentage, and that's played a role in him finishing with fewer than 200 passing yards in three of four games.

But the Jacksonville Jaguars have posted at least a 3% pass rate over expectation (PROE) in each of the last two weeks, and the Indianapolis Colts -- the Jags' Week 5 matchup -- have been among the worst pass defenses in football.

Entering Week 5, the Colts rank 25th in schedule-adjusted pass defense. They've allowed the sixth most passing yards per game (257.8) and 11th most FD points per dropback despite three of the four quarterbacks they've faced being Malik Willis, Caleb Williams, and Justin Fields.

That has me bullish on T-Law's chances of dicing up Indy's zone-heavy scheme -- just as he's done the last two years. In four matchups with the Colts since Gud Bradley became their defensive coordinator, Lawrence is averaging 205.5 passing yards with a 78% completion percentage. He threw for at least touchdowns in three of those games, averaging 19.5 FD points per game.

Considering the Colts have allowed the second most FD points to quarterbacks, this is a sneaky-strong spot for a Lawrence bounce back. Based on our NFL DFS projections, Lawrence is the second best point-per-dollar value on the slate thanks to his 17.9-point projection.

D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears

FanDuel Salary: ($6,400)

Life comes at you fast in the NFL -- just ask D'Andre Swift.

After it looked like he was in jeopardy of losing his starting gig three weeks into the season, Swift exploded for easily his best game of the year in Week 4. Swift racked up 165 total yards on 30 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), punching in a touchdown and netting 26 FD points.

Where did that come from?

Swift's 31.8% target share last week more than doubled his next-closest single-game output, and his 37.5% rushing success rate was a noticeable improvement on the 11.1% success rate he'd posted the two weeks prior.

Now, much of his success can be attributed to a soft Los Angeles Rams defense, but he'll have another plus matchup this week against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers enter Week 5 ranked 23rd in schedule-adjusted run defense, and they've allowed the second most FD points to opposing running backs.

A lot of that is volume-based (only the Colts have seen more running back rush attempts against them), but the fact they've ceded so much volume to rushers is a positive for Swift after his workload exploded in Week 4. And considering the Chicago Bears have trended toward a more run-heavy approach in recent weeks (-3.8% PROE in Week 3; -9.5% PROE in Week 4), I don't expect them to abandon the run after last week's successful outing.

That should again lead to a busy afternoon for Swift, and it makes him one of the primary backs I'm targeting in that $6,000 range.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Salary: ($5,900)

The Rams' defense has been one I've enjoyed targeting in DFS this season -- and for good reason. LA is 31st in schedule-adjusted defense overall, and they're bottom-four against both the run and pass. With that, they've allowed the fifth most FD points to quarterbacks and running backs, the sixth most to wide receivers, and the ninth most to tight ends.

Any way you slice it, this is a good matchup for the Green Bay Packers.

But with Christian Watson sidelined, Dontayvion Wicks is the Packer I'm most excited to roster at salary. Wicks exploded for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns last week, and he has a strong track record of producing without Watson. In the last five games where Wicks was active and Watson played fewer than 20% of snaps, he's averaged 4.2 receptions, 7.0 targets, 57 yards, and 13.8 FD points per game.

With Watson departing last week early, Wicks' route rate jumped to 76.8%, and he led the team with 13 targets and 209.9 air yards.

Wicks could feast this week against a secondary that's allowed the fourth highest target rate and most yards per route run to opposing receivers.

We've seen Wicks develop into one of Jordan Love's preferred targets already this season, leading the team with an 18.8% target share in Love's two games. Now with Watson out and such a good matchup on deck, Wicks is in a great position to put up gaudy numbers and outperform his $5,900 salary.

Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers

FanDuel Salary: ($5,300)

Remember how the Rams' defense stinks?

Well -- they're just as bad against tight ends as they are wide receivers, and that makes Tucker Kraft an uber-intriguing value at $5,300 this week.

Kraft has been the clear No. 1 TE for the Packers this season, pacing them with an 81.4% snap rate. He didn't do much in the two games Malik Willis started, but Kraft's connection with Love has been on full display early on. He caught 6 of 9 targets for 53 yards and a touchdown last week and has now earned a 14.1% target share and 25% red zone target share with Love under center.

Those numbers will play at such a volatile position, especially when the Rams are allowing the most FD points per target to opposing tight ends.

Now, it's a bit harder to justify rostering both Wicks and Kraft from an upside perspective unless you're stacking them alongside Love, but this is such a good matchup that one of the two will be a staple of almost all of my lineups this week.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.