4 NFL DFS Matchups to Target in Week 18

When playing NFL DFS on FanDuel, we have to factor in matchups when rostering players. A running back who was a superb play one week might be a poor play the next week.

This article will help identify the best matchups to target on a given main slate. Which matchups stand out this week?

All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.

NFL DFS Matchups to Target for Week 18

Bijan Robinson vs. Panthers Rush Defense

Motivation is always a critical factor when evaluating our options in Week 18, and the Atlanta Falcons are one such team that we can expect to have all hands on deck. Atlanta enters Week 18 with an 8-8 record and needs a win (and a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss) to sneak into the playoffs as the NFC South champions.

Given that the Bucs are favored by nearly two touchdowns over the New Orleans Saints, the Falcons' outlook is bleak, but that shouldn't stop them from giving it their all as home favorites against the Carolina Panthers.

With this in mind, Bijan Robinson ($9,200) looks like a player to build around despite having the slate's third-highest salary.

Since Atlanta's Week 12 bye, Robinson has been as consistent as they come in DFS, averaging 114.4 scrimmage yards per game while scoring 25.5, 19.1, 17.0, 23.3, and 23.3 FanDuel points. This certainly hasn't been a fluke, either, as he's enjoyed a lofty workload over the stretch, averaging 21.8 carries and 3.4 targets per game with a 79.6% snap rate.

Robinson's usage near the goal line has improved, as well. While we had to worry about Tyler Allgeier stealing valuable touches earlier in the year, Bijan boasts an 80.6% red zone rush share and 80.2% red zone snap rate over the last five games.

Finally, it's this matchup against the Panthers that's the icing on the cake. Carolina ranks 31st in schedule-adjusted rush defense and has allowed the most FanDuel points per game to RBs.

Our NFL DFS projections peg Robinson for 19.6 FanDuel points, which is the highest mark among all flex-eligible players on the main slate.

Bucky Irving vs. Saints Rush Defense

The aforementioned Buccaneers have -1300 odds to win the NFC South, needing just a win over the Saints or a Falcons loss to secure the division. Of course, they would much rather leave their fate in their own hands, so we shouldn't see them pulling any punches against a weak opponent.

Bucky Irving ($7,900) has been limited in practice to begin the week, but that's been a common occurrence this season. He hasn't missed a game yet, so we should expect him to be a full go with a postseason berth on the line.

That's an exciting prospect against a New Orleans team that's not only a massive road underdog but is 30th in adjusted rush defense and has coughed up the 5th-most FanDuel points per game to running backs.

Irving is fresh off racking up a whopping 190 scrimmage yards behind 20 carries and 4 targets versus the Panthers, scoring 24 FanDuel points despite being held out of the end zone. This teases at the kind of ceiling he could have in another plus matchup, particularly with backfield mate Rachaad White seeing a shrinking role after logging just a 36.5% snap rate and 7 opportunities last week.

It's worth noting that Irving split red zone snaps and carries with both White and Sean Tucker in Week 17, so his path to touchdowns isn't quite as clear as someone like Bijan Robinson's -- but we also aren't doling out nearly as much cap space for Irving's services.

Our model projects Bucky for 15+ FanDuel points, putting him in roughly a tie for the fifth-best mark among running backs, and he could well exceed that against the lowly Saints.

Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Colts Pass Defense

Unlike the previous two teams, the Jacksonville Jaguars were eliminated from the postseason a long time ago, and if anything, the franchise would benefit far more from a loss to secure a top-five draft pick.

However, head coach Doug Pederson's job is on the line, and quotes from both him and his players firmly state that they're still playing to win, and they did just that by defeating the Tennessee Titans in Week 17.

That should give us more confidence that they won't be scaling back starter minutes against the Indianapolis Colts, which means we should be happy to roster Brian Thomas Jr. ($8,000) this weekend.

Since the Jags' Week 12 bye, the team has finally committed to feeding Thomas the ball, as he's seen double-digit targets in five straight games with a 34.5% target share and 50.7% air yards share. He's also scored five touchdowns over this stretch, which isn't entirely a fluke considering he's also recorded a 36.8% red zone target share and 75.0% end zone target share.

While it's still disconcerting to trust a receiver tethered to Mac Jones, it's obvious Jones is trying to get the ball to his best receiver early and often, and we've now seen Thomas score 20+ points three games in a row.

This matchup versus the Colts should only further help Thomas to a lofty fantasy score. Indianapolis is 29th in adjusted pass defense and is coming off an embarrassing loss to the New York Giants that eliminated them from playoff contention. Not only did Drew Lock throw for 309 yards and 4 TDs in that game, but top wideout Malik Nabers caught 7-of-8 targets for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns.

While Thomas will be up against it to match Nabers' output, it's an encouraging sign that he and Jones can find success against these Colts. Thomas has a top-three projection among wide receivers despite having just the eighth-highest WR salary.

Jordan Addison vs. Lions Pass Defense

There's little question which game will draw the most attention in both DFS and real life, and that's this tantalizing Sunday Night Football bout between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. On top of playing for the top seed in the NFC -- with the loser dropping all the way down to the 5 seed -- this game has a gigantic 56.5-point total, a number that runs laps around every other Week 18 matchup.

We'll definitely want to roster the usual suspects from both sides, but perhaps the best bang for our buck might be Minnesota wideout Jordan Addison ($7,100).

Dating back to Week 12, we've seen Addison earn a strong role alongside Justin Jefferson, even out-targeting his star teammate on a few occasions. Across the past six games, Addison has posted a 93.2% route rate while logging a 25.6% target share, 34.0% air yards share, and 35.1% red zone target share.

Meanwhile, we've seen Detroit's defense limp to the finish due to injuries, and over the last four games, only the Chicago Bears have failed to score 30+ points against the Lions. Sam Darnold and the Vikings' 6th-ranked adjusted pass offense should put up big numbers, and the wideouts could have an especially fruitful day, as Detroit has allowed the second-most FanDuel points per game to WRs.

At his modest salary, Addison projects as the best point-per-dollar value among wide receivers.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.