4 NFL DFS Matchups to Target in Week 11
When playing NFL DFS on FanDuel, we have to factor in matchups when rostering players. A running back who was a superb play one week might be a poor play the next week.
This article will help identify the best matchups to target on a given main slate. Which matchups stand out this week?
All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.
NFL DFS Matchups to Target for Week 11
Jonathan Taylor vs. Jets Rush Defense
Once considered one of the NFL's top defensive units, the New York Jets don't even have that going for them these days, most recently getting rocked for 31 points by the Arizona Cardinals. The Jets now rank 24th in schedule-adjusted total defense and 27th in adjusted rush defense.
Therefore, this looks like a viable spot to see if we can get a ceiling game out of the Indianapolis Colts' Jonathan Taylor ($8,400).
Across seven games, Taylor has averaged 23.7 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) for 103.4 scrimmage yards per contest. While the return of Anthony Richardson at quarterback figures to steal away some rushing attempts near the goal line, when including both carries and targets in the red zone, Taylor has earned a robust 44,4% RZ opportunity share in four games with Richardson playing the majority of QB snaps.
The Jets are 3.5-point home favorites but have lost six of their last seven and possess a below-average offense, so game script should also favor the Colts' lead back.
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Taylor is projected for the sixth-most FanDuel points at running back in our NFL DFS projections.
Nick Chubb vs. Saints Rush Defense
Nick Chubb ($6,200) has failed to score double-digit FanDuel points in any of his three games since returning from injury; being a game-script dependent running back on a lackluster Cleveland Browns team unfortunately leaves him with a low floor.
Still, if ever there was a week to give him a shot in tournaments, it's this matchup versus the New Orleans Saints. New Orleans ranks 31st in schedule-adjusted rush defense and has allowed the third-most FanDuel points per game to RBs. The Saints have also coughed up the second-most rushing touchdowns to opposing backs (12).
Chubb's snap rate has fluctuated wildly (35.1%, 62.1%, and 35.5%), but that number in the middle came in Cleveland's lone win over that stretch, whereas the over two were defeats where they trailed pretty much wire to wire. While the Browns are on the road this week, they're just 1.5-point underdogs, and it's hard to see them falling so far behind the 3-7 Saints that they would need to abandon the run.
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Further, even with Chubb logging inconsistent snaps, he's still managed 17, 20, and 17 adjusted opportunities, and he's dominated red zone carries (90.9%). Now, fresh off a bye with both the matchup and game script likely working in his favor, it wouldn't be surprising to see him get his largest workload yet.
At his modest salary, our projections view Chubb as the fourth-best point-per-dollar value at running back.
George Pickens vs. Ravens Pass Defense
George Pickens ($7,500) got a nod in this space last week, and he caught 5-of-7 targets for 91 yards and a touchdown on his way to 18 FanDuel points versus Washington. Perhaps an even bigger outing is on the horizon in a showdown against the vaunted Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore has been an easy target for opposing passing attacks this season, funneling fantasy points in that direction due to ranking 30th in adjusted pass defense but 3rd in adjusted rush defense. That's led to the Ravens giving up by far the most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.
In Russell Wilson's three starts, Pickens has led the Pittsburgh Steelers in target share (26.6%), air yards share (41.4%), red zone target share (35.7%), and end zone target share (45.5%). Not only is Pickens seeing the most targets, but he's earning high-value ones downfield and in scoring position.
While the Steelers still like to lean on the run, this matchup is tied for the slate's highest total (48.5), and it wouldn't be surprising to see Baltimore's top-ranked adjusted offense push this into shootout territory.
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Best of all, Pickens' salary received just a $500 bump since last week, so he projects as the best point-per-dollar value at wide receiver in our model.
Courtland Sutton vs. Falcons Pass Defense
Although Courtland Sutton ($6,800) has been the top dog in the Denver Broncos' passing attack all season, it's just now started to show up more consistently in the box score.
Since curiously earning zero targets in a Week 7 blowout win, Sutton has hit 100 receiving yards in two of the last three games while enjoying a 30.9% target share and averaging 5.0 downfield targets (10+ air yards) per game for a 44.0% air yards share.
Sutton should be featured prominently against an Atlanta Falcons team that's 23rd in adjusted pass defense and has coughed up the 9th-most FanDuel points per game to WRs.
Although this matchup's 44.5 total doesn't leap off the page, our Brandon Gdula projects this game to be the second-fastest in pace this week, which could lead to a fantasy-friendly environment that further enhances Sutton's outlook.
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You might even consider stacking Sutton with Bo Nix ($7,400), as Nix projects as one of the better values at quarterback.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.