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4 NFL Betting Picks for Week 7

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes

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4 NFL Betting Picks for Week 7

If you're trying to find betting value in the NFL, it often won't come from the best games.

Those games get more attention. More attention means more betting volume. And more betting volume -- typically -- means more efficient lines.

With Week 7 bringing us some absolute banger games, there was no guarantee we'd be able to find value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds. This is never a bad thing because we should be content to just sit back and enjoy the action.

But I actually do think some of the best bets of the week come in those marquee matchups.

Let's dig into this week's slate and outline which spreads, moneylines, and totals stand out to me as we prepare for what should be one of the most thrilling regular-season slates in recent memory.

Best Bets for NFL Week 7

Chiefs at 49ers

49ers -1.5 (-105)

Handicap

San Francisco 49ers
Oct 20 8:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Despite a 3-3 record and the absence of Christian McCaffrey, the San Francisco 49ers still lead my power rankings entering Week 7. They're good enough where I'm willing to back them even as they face an undefeated Kansas City Chiefs team off a bye.

Part of that high ranking is because my preseason prior still plays a heavy role in that evaluation. But even looking at just 2024 data, the 49ers would be third for me.

A key aspect of that is their late-down offense. Kyle Shanahan offenses have -- in the past -- been criticized as struggling when forced into obvious passing situations. But some additional off-schedule magic from Brock Purdy has made this a strength.

As for the Chiefs, it was great to see the offense erupt in their first full game without Rashee Rice. I still have some concerns around the sustainability of it, especially with the team sitting 11th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings despite a large portion of that sample including Rice on the field.

My model has the 49ers favored by slightly more than a field goal here, so laying just 1.5 points at -105 does draw me in.

Lions at Vikings

Lions' Moneyline (+110)

Moneyline

Oct 20 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Minnesota Vikings' defense is legit. Brian Flores is a wizard, and I think that end is sticky.

The offense does still give me some pause, though, pushing me to take the Detroit Lions in a massive NFC North matchup.

Through Week 6, the Vikings -- despite their record -- are still numberFire's 17th-ranked offense. A healthy part of that is because they've struggled on late downs, boasting just a 37.8% success rate there. They look a bit better once you adjust for schedule, but I do think concerns there are legitimate given Sam Darnold's chaotic tendencies when forced into obvious passing situations.

The Lions, on the other hand, are ranked third on offense and 10th on defense. That number will fall with the loss of Aidan Hutchinson (leg), but this offense is one that can beat you in multiple ways, upping my faith they can still be an elite team even without a top-notch player.

Even with the Vikings at home and getting a post-bye bump, I've still got the Lions as favorites in this game. As a result, I'm comfortable taking the plus money on having them win outright.

Texans at Packers

Under 47.5 (-115)

Total Match Points

Under
Oct 20 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

This game involves two fun, young, ascending offenses, so I understand why the total is where it's at. But wind combined with underrated defenses allows me to see value in the under.

The Houston Texans have defensive stars at key positions in Danielle Hunter, Will Anderson Jr., and Derek Stingley Jr. That has allowed them to sit 12th overall defensively even without Denico Autry, who returns off suspension this week.

As for the Green Bay Packers, they looked putrid in the season-opener, but they've trended up since then. They're actually ranked eighth against the rush by numberFire's metrics, a far cry from what you'd have expected after Brazil.

Finally, the current forecast in Green Bay calls for 11 mile-per-hour winds, pushing the total down for me two full points. It won't be fun to root against C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love, but I do agree with the model on this one.

Titans at Bills

Over 41.5 (-102)

Total Match Points

Over
Oct 20 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

With the over here sitting at -102, it's possible this total comes down another point to 40.5. You do see 41 pop up as a somewhat key number in totals, so that would be an impactful move. But my model has this one up at 45.3 points, so I'm inclined to not risk it and just take the over now.

That's mostly due to the Buffalo Bills' offense. Even before the Amari Cooper trade, the Bills ranked fifth in numberFire's offensive rankings and were top-five both on the ground and through the air. It's a tough task against the Tennessee Titans' defense, but they're up to the challenge.

The other side of the ball is obviously more concerning for an over. But with the Titans' implied total at just 16.5 points, we don't need a ton out of them for this one to hit. Plus, if Will Levis throws a pick six or gives the Bills a short field, that can catalyze an over, as well.

Wind speeds here are at nine miles per hour, which isn't low. But with scoring trending up the past few weeks, I'm pretty inclined to take value in overs where I see it, and this is the best over spot for me on the board.


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Which bets stand out to you across Week 7? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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