4 Nations Face-Off Championship Game: Best Bets and Player Props for USA vs. Canada

After six exhilarating round-robin games, we have reached the conclusion of the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off.

By virtue of their two regulation wins, USA enters the championship game as the top seed over the second-place Canadians. Still, the 4 Nations Face-Off Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have these teams on a level playing field, installing both squads at -110 on the moneyline. Surely, bettors can expect another intense, drama-filled contest as these neighboring countries battle it out for hockey supremacy.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

Betting Picks for Today’s 4 Nations Championship Game Between USA vs. Canada

Canada Moneyline (-110)

Today’s championship battle sets up an ideal revenge spot for Canada. Team USA bested the Canadians in the round-robin matchup but is dealing with mounting injuries and concerning metrics. Consequently, there could be value in backing Canada to come out on top in Boston.

Charlie McAvoy will be absent from tonight’s contest, and Brady Tkachuk’s participation is in jeopardy. It's not that the Americans lack depth, but missing those two primary contributors puts the USA at a disadvantage. Those concerns are amplified by some faltering metrics versus the Canadians. When these teams met in Montreal, the States mustered just two high-danger chances at five-on-five and recorded 23 shots across all strengths.

Moreover, Team USA’s scoring is starting to dry up. After bursting out of the gates with a six-goal performance versus Finland, the States have managed just four total goals across their last two outings. The top-seeded Americans were stymied by Sweden, tallying just one goal on 33 shots. In the preceding game, they needed an empty-netter to seal the deal versus the Canadians and escape with a 3-1 win.

Analytically, Canada is positioned on the opposite end of the spectrum. Sidney Crosby and company have out-shot their opponents in all three contests, maximizing production out of all four lines. While Connor Hellebuyck kept Canada in check last week, the Canadians have excelled at scoring in the two other contests. Altogether, they’ve recorded 10 goals in three tournament games, with all but one of those coming at even strength.

The betting price doesn’t reflect it, but Canada is the superior team. On that basis, we see an edge in backing them at pick’em odds on Thursday.

Sidney Crosby to Record 2+ Points (+400)

Over the past two decades, no player has meant more to Team Canada than Sidney Crosby. The future Hall of Famer continues to step up when his country needs him most, and we’re anticipating another game-changing performance from Crosby in tonight’s championship showdown.

Crosby’s tireless work ethic is best encapsulated in two key plays that helped deliver Canada to the final. In the tournament-opening win over Sweden, the Pittsburgh Penguins' forward turned the puck over deep in the attacking zone and then busted the full 200 feet back down the ice to disrupt Sweden’s scoring chance. Subsequently, he collected the puck and set up Mitch Marner for the game-winner. In Monday’s must-win contest versus Finland, he was again involved in a key defensive play in the neutral zone before collecting the puck and scoring on the empty net.

Undoubtedly, Crosby’s tenacity is a key part of his success. However, he still ranks as one of the top skilled players in the game. He leads the Penguins in high-danger chances, averaging 5.9 per game. Likewise, his 12.6 scoring opportunities rank second on the team. More importantly, Crosby has carried that analytics success into the 4 Nations Face-Off.

Another inspired performance is expected from Crosby against the USA. He’s already recorded two or more points twice this tournament, and we expect him to make it a third time at TD Garden. At +400, he’s a top value pick to record 2+ points and could be the unsuspecting MVP when the curtain falls on the NHL’s wildly successful tournament.

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