4 Nations Face-Off: Best Bets and Player Props for Canada vs. Finland

What. A. Tournament.

The NHL couldn’t have scripted a more entertaining start to its inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off. Through four games, we’ve seen the intensity of the playoffs combined with the recklessness of must-win games.

Now, with the final three contests shifting to Boston, we’re going to watch Canada and Finland find a new gear as they try to secure a spot in Wednesday’s Championship Game.

Let's dive into the best bets for today in FanDuel Sportsbook's 4 Nations Face-Off Odds.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

Monday’s Betting Picks for Canada vs. Finland in the 4 Nations Face-Off

Finland +1.5 +122

The Canadians are getting much betting love ahead of their must-win game against Finland. Canada is installed as prohibitive -410 favorites, needing a regulation win to guarantee themselves a spot in the final. However, as we’ve seen from the Finns, we expect them to be up to the challenge.

The outcome didn’t go their way on Saturday night, but the Canadians were the dominant analytics team. They out-chanced the USA, 12-5, in high-danger and 21-17 in scoring chances. Still, the same issue that plagued them against Sweden was a recurrent issue against the States. Canada is having a hard time capitalizing at five-on-five. Despite featuring some of the best players in the league and a handful of sure-fire Hall-of-Famers, Canada is having difficulty scoring.

Ineffective scoring will be a persistent issue against the Finns. The Suomi absolutely stymied the Swedes in Saturday’s matinee, holding their opponents to a paltry 15 scoring and two high-danger chances. That’s the standard they’ll need to match if they hope to surpass the Canadians and earn their way into the final.

Given Canada’s scoring woes and Finland’s resilient play, we don’t see the Canadians pulling away at the TD Garden. We see an edge in backing Finland on the puckline at plus money.

Nathan MacKinnon Under 3.5 Shots +116

There is no talent shortage in the Canadian lineup, and that’s reflected in their usage metrics. Only two players finished with less than 11:00 minutes of ice time on Saturday night. With that, we’ve seen a more balanced attack, not just the top line getting chances in the attacking zone. Nathan MacKinnon’s production has waned in the 4 Nations Face-Off, limiting his ceiling against Finland.

After getting six shots on target in the tournament opener, MacKinnon was held to just one shot against the States. Moreover, we’re forecasting him having another tough time breaking through Finland’s defensive shell on Monday and exceeding his 3.5 shots prop.

The Finns were effective at neutralizing Sweden’s attack. Only Mika Zibanejad recorded more than three shots, with the team being held to just 24 attempts on net in the overtime loss. Further, Finland plays a disciplined style of hockey, which will undoubtedly limit Canada’s time on the powerplay. They sat for just four minutes against Sweden, recording two minor penalties.

MacKinnon faces an uphill climb to go north of 3.5 shots without the added benefit of powerplay time. Considering the Canadians' loaded arsenal, we see value in betting MacKinnon to fall short of his total.

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