4 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Wednesday 10/9/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals

Royals Moneyline (-102)

The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals will take their tied series to Kauffman Stadium tonight.

Seth Lugo will get the ball for the Royals while Clarke Schmidt will take the mound for the Yankees for the first time in 10 days.

Lugo is one of those pitchers who is just easy to trust. This season, he posted a 3.00 ERA (10th-best in MLB), 3.72 xERA, 3.83 xFIP, and 3.94 SIERA. He limits opponents to just a 36.7% fly-ball rate and 0.70 home runs per nine innings (seventh-lowest in MLB) and draws a large 44.2% ground-ball rate.

Lugo pitched in Game 2 of the Wild Card series and led the Royals to a win by allowing just one run and six baserunners through 4 1/2 innings pitched, notching six Ks in that span.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have gone a combined 1 for 15 at the plate this series. Judge's postseason struggles are shooting the Yanks in the foot once again, and it's hard to picture a rebound night for him on the road against a power-resistant righty.

There are some reasons to be concerned about Schmidt. He was dominant to start the season but hit the IL in late May and didn't return until early September. Through five September starts, he posted a 3.65 ERA, 4.36 xFIP, 4.09 SIERA, and 24.5% strikeout rate.

I'm typically a bit hesitant on pitchers who have not only gone a substantial time without taking the mound but have also yet to pitch in a playoff environment. Lugo already dominated in a road playoff contest. The last time we saw Schmidt take the mound in the playoffs, he let up two home runs in one inning of work and was handed a loss.

To make matters worse, the Royals' offense was dominant on their home field this season, sporting a .260 BA, .420 SLG, and .320 wOBA at home yet just a .236 BA, .388 SLG, and .295 wOBA on the road. Let's look for Kansas City to grab a 2-1 series lead tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

Over 7.5 Runs (-118)

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres have been packing on the runs in the NLDS. All three games have seen a minimum of 11 runs scored and an average of 11.7 runs scored.

Dylan Cease will get the start for San Diego despite coming off just three days rest. Meanwhile, tonight's Game 4 will be a bullpen game for the Dodgers. In turn, I like these teams to combine for over 7.5 runs, something they have had no problem doing thus far.

Cease started Game 1 of this series, and the results weren't pretty. He surrendered six hits, two walks, one home run, and five earned runs through just 3 1/3 innings pitched. The Dodgers are facing elimination tonight, so we should expect their offense to come out as aggressive as can be. LA's offense ranked second in all of ISO, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers this season. They're capable of taking a short-rest Cease to task.

Dodgers' starters have allowed a combined 15 earned runs through 13 1/3 frames this series. Relying on the rotation hasn't paid off, so they might as well see if a bullpen game works, right?

In theory, a bullpen game isn't as treacherous as it may sound. The Dodgers will have the ability to hand-pick most matchups and ride with pitching momentum wherever they can find it. The problem is, the Dodgers might not have enough armory to get the team through nine innings unscathed.

Landon Knack has yet to pitch in this series and could see some bulk work tonight. But Knack allows a 50.0% fly-ball rate and 1.83 home runs per nine innings, which makes him vulnerable against a Padres team that has posted a .255 ISO, .509 SLG, and .344 wOBA in the playoffs. Past Knack, things could get hairy against a hot Padres offense.

I'll take the over.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Kyle Schwarber has been raking to the tune of a 26.1% barrel rate, 39.1% fly-ball rate, 58.0% hard-hit rate, .354 ISO, and 174 wRC+ across the last 30 days of play.

He and the Philadelphia Phillies will take on Jose Quintana and the New York Mets tonight.

Quintana limits the fly-balls, which is never ideal when looking for home runs. However, he did cede a .200 ISO, .455 SLG, and 1.42 home runs per nine innings to left-handed batters this season. He's been beaten by this handedness via raw power, and few lefties have more raw power to offer than Schwarbs.

Schwarber bats leadoff for the Phillies, which helps in securing him ample at-bats and avoiding intentional walks. I'll back him to take Quintana deep tonight.

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+350)

The Dodgers could play their last game of the season tonight. Will Shohei Ohtani help save their season or at least give us one more farewell homer?

Ohtani will take on the right-handed Cease, so we've got Shotime in the split we want him in. This season, Ohtani produced a .322 BA, .395 ISO (highest in MLB), .717 SLG (highest), and 43.2% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers.

That .395 ISO is particularly preposterous -- only two other players in MLB held an ISO higher than .285 in this split. Ohtani smashed 54 home runs this season, 42 of which came against righties.

While dominant this season, Cease still let up a .370 SLG, 1.07 home runs per nine, and a 41.7% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. Ohtani belted a dinger against Cease in Game 1 of this series, and considering he bats leadoff and Mookie Betts is the next batter up for LA, we shouldn't expect him to get intentionally walked early on in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.