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Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Over 7 Runs (-115)

For Game 3 of the Philadelphia Phillies-New York Mets, Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea will be on the mound. As divisional rivals, Nola and Manaea have gotten plenty of time in this matchup. Considering head-to-heads from the 2024 regular-season, this one looks bound for over seven runs.

Manaea made three appearances in the rivalry this season, and the last two were particularly concerning with the starter giving up nine combined earned runs. Nola made a start against New York on September 13th, surrendering six hits and six earned runs. It doesn't stop here, though; we can dig a little deeper.

One of the first things that come to mind is the Mets' slugging. New York averaged the sixth-most home runs per game during the regular season and just launched four dingers in Game 2's 7-6 loss. The Mets are also touting the seventh-highest home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) at 13.8% over the last 30 days, as well.

This is where the concern rolls in for Nola. Philadelphia's vet is in the 58th percentile of average exit velocity and the 53rd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed; neither mark is anything to write home about. Nola has given up seven home runs over his last six starts, dating back to the regular season. The Phillies' bullpen also has the seventh-highest xFIP at 4.25 over the last 30 days.

Moving over to Manaea's matchup, Philly has the ability to mash against the Mets' starting hurler. His top usage rates are held by a sinker (44.7%) and sweeper (19.2%); the Phillies have logged the seventh-most runs above average against sinkers and the second-most runs above average when facing sweepers over the last 30 days. This doesn't change much when looking at the season-long split, for Philadelphia has the third-best mark against sinkers and the fifth-best against sweepers. It's no wonder that Manaea's numbers have been deflating in head-to-head matchups this season.

Each batting order has its advantages for Game 3. With that said, I'll happily take the over.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

Jackson Merrill to Record an RBI (+145)

The San Diego Padres are the clear favorite to take Game 3 against the Los Angeles Dodgers (-158). San Diego's ace -- Michael King -- will be on the mound, and he hasn't given up a run in back-to-back starts. Meanwhile, Walker Buehler carries a 5.38 ERA and a 4.54 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) on the season. It wasn't much better in September with Buehler recording a 4.44 ERA over five starts. He's also logged single game xFIPs surpassing 4.00 in three of his last four outings.

Targeting the Padres' batting order is something to lean on for tonight's matchups. San Diego has managed to average 7.5 runs per game in this series, and Buehler is a much more favorable matchup compared to facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jack Flaherty in the first two matchups of the series.

Head-to-head stats quickly point out the edge for the Padres' batting order. For example, Fernando Tatis Jr. has a .310 batting average over 29 career at-bats against Buehler. Manny Machado has also enjoyed success with a .286 average over 28 career at-bats. Jurickson Profar, who hits third in the lineup, hasn't had the same success with a .071 batting average in 14 at-bats against Buehler.

Regardless, Jackson Merrill hits fifth in the lineup, putting him in an ideal spot to drive in base runners like Tatis and Machado. As a rookie, we have a limited sample size of two hits in four at-bats (.500) for Merrill against Buehler. Still, this is a matchup worth backing with Buehler allowing a .296 batting average against left-handed hitters this season compared to .282 against righties. Merrill is also hitting .285 against four-seam fastballs, .349 when seeing cutters, and .357 against knuckle curves, which make up Buehler's top three most-used pitches.

Our DFS projections give Merrill a forecasted 0.59 RBIs. If correct, this translates to a 44.6% implied probability for at least one RBI (or +124 odds). This isn't terrific value with his line sitting at +145, but it's enough to keep me on this pick. Merrill is in an ideal spot in the batting order to drive in a run, and the matchup against Buehler brings the pick to home plate.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+320)

The Phillies' Kyle Schwarber hit his first home run of the postseason in Game 1 but went hitless in Game 2. Schwarber looks poised to get back on track in Game 3's matchup against Manaea.

We only have a small sample size six career at-bats for Schwarber against Manaea, but Philadelphia's slugger is hitting .333 with a .833 SLG in the matchups -- which includes one home run. Against right-handed pitching, Schwarber carries a slash line of .218/.342/.482; this skyrockets to .300/.407/.490 against southpaws.

The Mets' hurler is giving up a 49.3% fly-ball rate against right-handed hitters over his last six starts. Meanwhile, Schwarber boasts a 27.3% HR/FB against left-handed pitchers this season, which has only jumped to 33.3% over the last 30 days. It's been check mark after check mark, and it keeps going with Schwarber raking to the tune of a .356 batting average against sinkers -- Manaea's most-used pitch.

Our projections have Schwarber tabbed with 0.33 home runs, which holds a 28.1% implied probability for at least one big fly (or +256 odds). Even with Schwarber holding the lowest line for a home run in this matchup (+320), this still points to good value.

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+320)

We're going pretty chalky for today's home run picks as Fernando Tatis Jr. holds the lowest line to go yard on Tuesday (+320). As previously mentioned, the Padres are a batting order worth leaning on against Buehler. San Diego is logging 6.0 runs per game in the playoffs, and Tatis has been like the Human Torch, touting a .643/.722/1.429 slash line in the playoffs.

His 1.429 SLG (!!!) says enough, but Tatis has been mashing with three homers in the postseason, as well. Buehler surrendered five homers over six starts in September. His 18.8% HR/FB allowed this season is already bad enough, which tied for the eighth-worst mark among pitchers with at least 50 innings under their belts. This has only gotten worse over his past five starts at 20.0% allowed.

Adding to the concern, Buehler holds a 19.0% HR/FB allowed against righties compared to 18.6% against lefties. So not only are Buehler's numbers up, but he also already struggles against slugging righties. Tatis carries a 24.7% HR/FB against right-handed hurlers this season, and that's spiked to an absurd 42.9% over the last 30 days. To make matters worse, Tatis hits above .300 this season against four-seam fastballs and knuckle curves, which are two of Buehler's three most-used pitches.

San Diego's superstar right fielder holds our highest home run projection of the day at 0.37 -- a 30.9% implied probability for at least one tater (or +224). Tatis' current +320 odds to go yard holds a 23.8% implied probability. Not only is Tatis red hot, but we can also get good value out of his home run prop for Game 3.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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