4 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Thursday 10/10/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals

Over 7.5 Runs (-122)

For tonight's Game 4 between the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals in KC, we get a repeat pitching matchup of Game 1, which was a 6-5 win for the Yankees. We could see a similar type of contest today, and that has me on the over.

Michael Wacha is starting for the Royals, and the veteran righty didn't have much success against the Yanks' offense in Game 1, permitting three earned runs, a dinger and three walks over four innings. Wacha was decent enough in the regular season (4.17 SIERA), but he gives up a lot of fly-balls (41.5% fly-ball rate), including a 44.5% fly-ball rate in the second half.

New York is turning to ace Gerrit Cole, who wasn't quite his usual self across 95 regular-season innings, racking up his lowest swinging-strike rate since 2017 (10.7%). Cole also allowed a career-worst 44.1% fly-ball rate. He's still good, but he hasn't been as dominant. That played out in Game 1 as Cole was tagged for three earned runs and a homer in five innings.

The location of this game helps the over, too, as Kauffman Field is the fourth-best environment for offense, per Statcast Park Factors.

One more thing -- these bullpens have to be gassed. Not once in this series has a starting pitcher gotten more than 15 outs, so both relief corps have been used extensively.

A lot of things point to offensive fireworks today in KC.

Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers

First 5 Innings Under 3.5 Runs (-114)

It's tough to get a betting read on any game involving the Detroit Tigers in these playoffs unless it's a day where Tarik Skubal is starting, because it's about impossible to tell what they're going to do pitching-wise. Yesterday, Tyler Holton got the Game 3 save -- he started Game 1.

But regardless of who the Tigers trot out there, their pitchers keep finding a way to get the job done, and with Tanner Bibee starting for the Cleveland Guardians, I am taking under 3.5 runs for the first five innings.

Bibee had excellent numbers during the season, posting a 26.3% K rate, 12.2% swinging-strike rate and 6.2% walk rate en route to a 3.58 SIERA. He cooked in Game 1 of this series, holding the Tigers without a run over 4 1/3 frames while fanning six.

Admittedly, I don't know what Detroit's pitching plans are, but there's a chance we see starter Reese Olson work a chunk of the early innings after he came on as the bulk guy in Game 1. If it is Olson, he's pretty darn good as he ended 2024 with a 3.93 SIERA. In that Game 1, he allowed just one earned run across five innings.

If it's not Olson, then I'm putting my faith in Detroit mixing and matching like they did successfully in Game 3. They've produced back-to-back shutouts, although Skubal started one of those games.

The park helps our cause as Comerica is the 10th-worst offensive environment, according to Statcast Park Factors.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Juan Soto is locked in, per usual, sporting a 50.0% hard-hit rate and 21.5% walk rate over 14 plate appearances in this series. This is what he does.

In a date with Wacha, Soto's +470 home run odds catch my eye.

In the regular season, Wacha allowed a 46.3% fly-ball rate to lefties, well above his 36.4% fly-ball rate versus righties. This is the split we want to target him in, and Soto -- who ended the regular season with a .424 wOBA and 42.8% hard-hit rate against right-handers -- is a great guy to back.

Soto popped 16 jacks in 248 away plate appearances against righties in 2024. I like him at these +470 odds.

Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run (+630)

Sticking with the same game, Vinnie Pasquantino's homer odds are pretty long today in his clash with Cole. But as I laid out above, Cole hasn't been the same elite hurler in 2024, and he's allowed a lot of fly-balls, particularly to left-handed hitters (47.9% fly-ball rate).

Pasquantino's best split is at home against righties. He logged a .362 wOBA in that split. Against righties overall, he generated a 37.8% hard-hit rate and 43.7% fly-ball rate.

I don't mind Pasquantino's RBI prop at +175, but I'm drawn to these +630 home run odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.