4 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Friday 10/18/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets

Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs (+124)

The Los Angeles Dodgers now hold -1500 odds to win the National League Championship Series thanks to a 3-1 lead over the New York Mets. Outside of Game 2, this series hasn't been close with the Dodgers winning by an average margin of +8.3 runs in their wins.

New York is putting David Peterson on the mound for Game 5. Over four postseason appearances, Peterson has yet to start in a game. He hasn't pitched for longer than three innings with his pitch count never surpassing 50. Peterson is carrying a 4.59 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 4.27 xFIP in the playoffs. There's not a whole lot to like about the Mets going into this potential series-closing contest. L.A. is also putting one of its best starters on the mound in Jack Flaherty, who gave up only two hits and zero runs in Game 1's win over New York.

The Dodgers are the clear favorite for this one, but their -132 moneyline odds carry little value. We could lean into this red-hot batting order instead.

FanDuel Sportsbook has Los Angeles' run prop set at 3.5 (-142 to go over). The alternate of over 4.5 runs is holding at +124. Considering the Dodgers' run production of 7.5 runs per game in this series, going over 4.5 is definitely within reach.

A quick look at head-to-head matchups for Peterson spells doom. Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith, Shohei Ohtani, and Enrique Hernandez are all hitting at least .400 against Peterson throughout their careers. Freddie Freeman isn't too shabby, either, with a .316/.350/.632 slash line over 19 career at-bats against Peterson.

Perhaps the Mets' saving grace will be having Kodai Senga available out of the bullpen. Senga made his second start of the season to open up the NLDS as he's battled shoulder and calf injuries. Plus, he got the Game 1 start in this series, as well. However, Senga has struggled over the two starts with a 7.95 SIERA and 8.13 xFIP in the postseason. This is not a dependable piece right now due to various injuries limiting Senga's production. He is currently a far cry from the pitcher who produced a 2.98 ERA while making an All-Star appearance in 2023. New York's bullpen also held a 3.63 xFIP over the last 30 days of the regular season, the second-highest mark among active teams.

Plenty of run production is in the picture for the Dodgers, who are looking to close out this series and advance to the World Series.

Shohei Ohtani to Record an RBI (+170)

In a historical season, Ohtani continues to post mind-boggling numbers. He's posted interesting splits with no runners on compared to runners in scoring position (RISP) during the postseason. It's a stark contrast with Shohei slashing .043/.214/.174 with no runners on compared to .625/.700/1.375 with RISP. Ohtani holds an absurd 2.075 OPS with RISP during the playoffs, which is far beyond the best mark from the regular season -- Aaron Judge's 1.219.

Ohtani's .235 batting average in the postseason suggests he's been disappointing, but the former MVP is delivering when it matters most. Our DFS projections are giving Ohtani the highest RBI projection for this matchup at 0.78. If correct, this holds a 54.2% implied probability for at least one RBI (or -118 odds). Shohei's current +170 odds to drive in a run (or a 37.0% implied probability) is certainly something to back.

The Dodgers' superstar has logged five RBIs in this series and four over his last two games. This would be an excellent pairing with L.A. to go over 4.5 runs. Shohei carrying the highest home run projection (0.3) for this game only adds more confidence for another ribby.

Over eight career at-bats against Peterson, Ohtani has three hits (.375 batting average). He also hits .339 and .294 against Peterson's most-used pitches (sinkers and four-seam fastballs).

New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians

Guardians Moneyline (+100)

Against all odds, the Cleveland Guardians pulled off a thrilling victory in Game 3 against the New York Yankees. As if Jhonkensy Noel's instant-classic game-tying home run in the ninth wasn't enough, David Fry followed it with a walk-off jack in extras.

This is the kind of moment that can completely swing the momentum in a series. The Guardians are home once again for Game 4, and I like their chances of knotting this series at 2-2.

numberFire's game projections are giving Cleveland a 51.3% win probability, which holds -105 implied odds. If correct, this already points to good value with the Guards' current +100 ( a 50.0% implied probability).

Luis Gil and Gavin Williams are each making their first postseason start on Friday. Williams has clear concerns against the Yankees' slugging order as he's in the bottom 11% of hard-hit rate allowed. However, New York was outside the top 10 in runs above average against four-seam fastballs, curveballs, and cutters over the last 30 days of the regular season -- which are Williams' most-used pitches.

Gil stumbled over his final three starts of the regular season, posting a 6.19 ERA while logging single-game xFIPs of 5.25+ in all three outings. The Guardians were in the top 10 of runs above average against four-seam fastballs and changeups over the final 30 days of the regular season. That's a jump compared to Cleveland ranking outside of the top 10 against the pitches across the entire season. With the Guards' success against two of Gil's three most-used pitches, the Cleveland agenda keeps pushing forward.

We just saw the Guardians launch three dingers in Game 3, and Gil allowed six taters over five starts in September. Williams could have the edge in this starting pitcher matchup, giving me just enough confidence to back the home underdogs. Ultimately, this pick comes down to Thursday's thrilling finish as it could give the home team just enough lift in a tight Game 4. Momentum is key in October.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+285)

It's been a rough postseason for Judge, carrying a .174/.323/.478 slash line. However, he's finally waking up in this series. Judge has launched a dinger in back-to-back games and that could continue into Game 4.

We mentioned Williams could give the Guardians a bit more in this starting pitcher matchup, but he's probably going to make mistakes still. The second-year hurler has yet to make a playoff start over his career, creating obvious nerves against a daunting batting order. Williams is in the bottom 5% in average exit velocity and bottom 11% in hard-hit rate allowed. These are difficult to ignore when it comes to the home run market.

While New York hasn't been hitting the best against some of Williams' most-used pitches, that's not the case for Judge. He's raking to the tune of .371 and .313 against four-seam fastballs and cutters -- two of Williams' most-used tools. Williams throws plenty of heat as his four-seam fastball carries a 51.5% usage rate this season; that spells trouble against one of baseball's elite sluggers.

Over his final five starts in September, Williams held 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9). However, we saw his fly-ball rate (FB%) allowed against right-handed hitters elevate from 36.4% to 40.3% over the span. Judge holds a ridiculous 62.5 FB% and 20.0% home-run-to-fly-ball rate in the playoffs.

Projections are giving Judge the highest home run total tonight (0.43). This holds a 34.9% implied probability for at least one big fly (or +187 odds). Even with Judge's +285 odds (or 26.0% implied) to send one into the stands, there's still good value here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.