4 Best NFL Touchdown Prop Bets for Divisional Round

Taking anytime touchdown props via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook is a fun way to wager on the NFL.

Which touchdown picks make sense for this week? Let's dig in.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Best NFL TD Picks: Divisional Round

Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+145)

Over the years, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have formed an unstoppable connection, and it almost seems inevitable that they'll be carving up defenses once the playoffs begin -- regardless of how the duo performed in the regular season. Just last season, Kelce was limited to 984 receiving yards and 5 receiving TDs during the regular season, only for him to produce 32 receptions, 355 receiving yards, and 3 receiving TDs amid the Kansas City Chiefs' postseason run that resulted in a second straight Super Bowl victory.

While Kelce concluded the 2024 regular season with only 823 receiving yards and 3 receiving TDs, I'm expecting the All-Pro TE to hit the playoff switch again. Since 2020, Kelce has appeared in 13 playoff contests, achieving 71-plus receiving yards in all of those outings while totaling 13 TDs during that span.

There were also positive signs for Kelce in the latter part of the regular season as he registered the highest target share (25.5%), second-highest air yards share (25.3%), and highest red-zone target share (28.4%) on the Chiefs since Week 8 (via NextGenStats), which was when he hauled in his first TD of the year.

Even with rookie Xavier Worthy emerging in KC's final three regular season games (excluding Week 18 when they rested starters), Kelce still managed to post the second-highest target share (22.2%), second-highest air yards share (23.4%), second-highest red-zone target share (28.6%), and second-highest end-zone target share (25.0%) in that small sample.

While the Houston Texans boast a formidable pass defense, they have surrendered the eighth-most receiving TDs (8), sixth-most end-zone receptions (6), and third-highest end-zone catch rate (85.7%) to TEs this season. For those who love narratives, Kelce also needs just four more TDs to become the all-time playoff TDs leader in NFL history, so Saturday's game is the first chance he'll get at inching closer to that record.

Jameson Williams Anytime Touchdown (+130)

Entering Saturday's Divisional Round matchup against the Washington Commanders, the Detroit Lions possess the highest implied total (32.0) that any team has had during the 2024 campaign, so it only makes sense we'd take someone from Detroit's high-octane offense to score. There isn't much value in taking either of the Lions' RBs to find the end zone, but the odds for Jameson Williams are enticing with the game featuring a high total while being played indoors.

After combining for only 25 catches, 395 receiving yards, and 3 receiving TDs across his first two seasons, Williams enjoyed a breakout in 2024 to the tune of 58 receptions, 1,001 receiving yards, and 7 receiving TDs. Williams has become an integral part of Detroit's aerial attack, and his versatile role is one that makes him worth targeting in the TD market.

In the 15 games he's been active in this year, Williams has logged the second-highest target share (18.9%), second-highest air yards share (30.7%), second-most downfield targets (targets of 10-plus yards) per game (3.1), and third-most yards per route run (2.19) on the Lions. Having a team-high 11.3-yard average depth of target has also led to five of his seven receiving TDs being 37-plus yards.

Washington's defense is permitting the 3rd-highest target rate (21.7%), 7th-most yards per route run (1.69), and 12th-highest average depth of target (11.0 yards) to the WR position. On top of that, our NFL daily projections are giving Williams the second-best chance of scoring a receiving TD (0.45) among all WRs playing in the Divisional Round, putting him behind only his teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Jayden Daniels Anytime Touchdown (+160)

On the other side of the Lions-Commanders clash, I'm expecting the legs of Jayden Daniels to be really active in a win-or-go-home setting. While Daniels failed to cross the goal line in the Wild Card victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he still carried the ball 12 times.

After dealing with a rib injury earlier in the season that limited his rushing production, Daniels has averaged 9.9 rushing attempts, a team-high 63.6 rushing yards per game, 2.19 rushing yards over expected per attempt, and a team-high 37.5% red-zone rushing share since Week 12. With the Commanders being massive underdogs on the road against the Lions, the ball will be in Daniels' hands plenty as Washington attempts to pull off the upset.

What makes Daniels a solid pick to find the end zone is the fact he'll be facing a Detroit defense that deploys man coverage at the highest rate (47.7%) under defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. Teams that play man coverage often tend to have more plays where defenders have their back turned to the QB, which could give Daniels plenty of rushing lanes in Saturday's bout.

Additionally, the Lions are allowing the third-most yards per carry (6.2), second-worst defensive rushing success rate (57.5%), and sixth-most rushing TDs (6) to QBs. Along with taking Daniels to hit the over on his rushing yards props in FanDuel Research's expert picks piece for the Divisional Round, I also like Daniels to get his seventh rushing score of his rookie campaign.

Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (+100)

Our own Jim Sannes has Josh Allen to score a TD among his favorite prop bets for the impending battle between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, and I am in agreement that there is value to be had in Allen's anytime TD prop at plus odds. For the second consecutive season, Allen finished with double-digit rushing TDs, concluding the regular season with 12 rushing TDs in 2024.

Through his first nine starts this season, Allen was averaging only 5.2 rushing attempts per game and 23.4 rushing yards per game while contributing just 3 rushing TDs. However, over his last eight starts (including last week's playoff win against the Denver Broncos), Allen has accrued 7.9 rushing attempts per game and 45.8 rushing yards per game while finding the end zone 9 times.

During the same eight-game sample from above, Allen is also producing the second-highest red-zone rushing share (34.5%) on the Bills during that span. Whenever Buffalo finds themselves in a short-yardage situation near the end zone, there's a good chance No. 17 is getting the call for the Bills.

Even though Sunday's Bills-Ravens clash is expected to have cold temps and potential snow, the game still has a lofty total, and Buffalo are considered narrow underdogs despite playing at home. With the Bills likely turning up the aggressive meter in a postseason setting, Allen should have multiple chances to get into the end zone.

You can also click here to check out the updated our 2024-25 NFL Playoffs printable bracket.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.