4 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 16

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Week 16

Nico Collins Over 86.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

I love buying elite talents at a low point, and Nico Collins and the Houston Texans' offense presumably hit rock bottom a week ago.

Collins scored twice to mask such a quiet day through the air, totaling just 4 receptions for 17 yards. Fourth in the NFL among qualifiers in yards per route run (3.30 YPRR), it's hard to fathom that quiet of a day in a Houston win.

Luckily, they'll need him on Saturday. As a 3.5-point underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs, Houston should find more success against numberFire's 14th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense than a 6th-ranked rushing D. The Chiefs also play a ton of man coverage (32.8% rate), and Collins' YPRR is excellent in those scenarios (3.15).

The Chiefs have allowed at least 70 receiving yards to the opponent's top target in seven straight games. Sporting a 27.0% target share since Stefon Diggs went down, Collins should be the Texans' top choice with obvious talent.

Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown (+125)

After weeks of strong inferences and suggestions, this is a humble demand to the Arizona Cardinals that it's now or never for Trey McBride's touchdown drought.

McBride has now set an NFL record with 87 receptions to open the season without a receiving touchdown, which would be amazing for any player. The big-bodied tight end who is built to be a threat in close? It's almost incomprehensible.

Taking away the "tight end" label, McBride's 12.8 targets per game lead the entire NFL over the last five weeks. He's Arizona's WR1 in tight end form and still hasn't scored.

A matchup to reverse this trend won't get any better. The Carolina Panthers have allowed the most end-zone targets (12) and receiving touchdowns (10) to opposing tight ends this season.

Kyler Murray is aware that #85 needs one soon, and he should have his chances if Carolina's results against tight ends this season are any indication.

Puka Nacua Over 89.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

I'm one to sell high and buy low in prop markets. I just don't think this is the time to abandon Puka Nacua.

Nacua's role relative to his teammates is the best in the NFL right now. Nacua's 37.2% target share in the last five weeks doesn't just lead the Los Angeles Rams; it's the best mark in the NFL by 4.7 percentage points. It's not empty volume, either, when Puka leads all qualifiers at 3.63 YPRR.

There's likely still a smidge of value here from the facts some might perceive the New York Jets' star corners as a brutal matchup, but that proof has been sorely missing from the pudding. New York is just nF's 16th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass D and sits 7th-worst on an NEP per target basis over the last five weeks.

Brian Thomas Jr. torched this team last week, and the most productive receiver in the NFL is on the way. I would not want to be holding an "under" ticket in this market.

De'Von Achane Anytime Touchdown (-110)

I fully expected to be swallowing -150 to bet this prop on Monday.

Perhaps a week out of the touchdown column for De'Von Achane was enough to prevent oddsmakers from going "prohibitive" here. Still, the Miami Dolphins' star running back has scored in all but one home game this year, and he's got a 100% rate of tuds in home games with Tua Tagovailoa active.

It's no accident. Achane has seen 40.6% of Miami's red-zone opportunities in the last five weeks, and you'd be surprised at how much of that work has come in the receiving game. He's oddly scored a receiving touchdown in four home contests this season, which could be notable as Jaylen Waddle (knee) is listed doubtful to play.

I'd still favor it comes via the ground, though. The San Francisco 49ers are nF's seventh-worst schedule-adjusted rush defense and have surrendered the second-most (tied) scrimmage touchdowns to running backs in 2024 (16).

We've got Achane projected for 0.69 touchdowns in a contest where whether shouldn't be a factor, and this game's 1.5-point spread provides optimism the Dolphins won't be leaning on Jaylen Wright in a blowout.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.