4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 7

For the opening six weeks, I've been riding a bunch of overs in the totals department.

I felt as though the market was undervaluing the new kickoff rules and the new kicking ball regulations, leading to my model -- in general -- predicting higher-scoring affairs.

That's still true in some spots for Week 7. But this time around, my biggest disagreement is actually toward an under.

Let's start there, laying out why I think we can finally start to bet against points before diving into other bets I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Best NFL Week 7 Spread and Total Bets

Saints at Bears

Total Under 46.5 Points (-105)

This total has yo-yoed a bit, going up to 47.5 yesterday before coming back down to 46.5 on Wednesday.

I agree with that latter move, and wind is playing a big factor.

Right now, the forecast in Chicago is calling for 20 mph winds on Sunday with some precipitation possible. I don't care as much about the rain, but that wind is a massive suck on scoring. If I had the wind at 5 mph, my model's spread and total predictions would have this total at 44.8, which would still present a lean toward the under. Instead, even when I reduce the projected wind speed to 16 mph, I have it at 42.9.

As FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula detailed last week, games with wind speeds of 10 to 19 mph have gone over just 40.9% of the time. The market tends to undervalue wind, and it's looking fierce for this one.

There are other concerns beyond the wind. The New Orleans Saints' offense has played much better at home and indoors, and the Chicago Bears -- outside of Monday night -- have struggled to move the ball on the ground. It all adds up to my still liking the under even though it has crossed a key number of 47.

Raiders at Chiefs

Total Over 45.5 Points (-112)

As mentioned, wind matters a lot for me, and we've got roughly 10 mph winds projected for the Kansas City Chiefs against the Las Vegas Raiders.

I'm still drooling for the over now that Rashee Rice is back.

The Chiefs' offense has played at a high level since Xavier Worthy returned from injury. Granted, some of that was due to opponent defensive injuries, but their efficiency numbers in this three-week window are among the best in the league.

Now, they get to add Rice to the mix, giving them one more viable pass-catcher in a room that arguably had none just a few weeks ago. I'm expecting this Chiefs offense to go nutty from the jump.

The Raiders should be able to pull their own weight, though. The Chiefs have been awful against the run this year, and Ashton Jeanty has looked the part the past three games.

All told, I've got this total at 48.6, so even though 45.5 is between key numbers in 44 and 47, I'm fully on board with the over.

Texans at Seahawks

Total Over 40.5 Points (-112)

Coming out of their bye, the Houston Texans seem a bit underrated by the market. Thus, I'm showing value in both their side at +3.5 against the Seattle Seahawks and the over.

With how Sam Darnold is playing, the over is my preference as it allows me to benefit if the Seahawks continue to play really solid offense.

This may feel odd, but once you adjust for schedule, the Texans have actually been an above-average offense on early downs both through the air and overall, according to my numbers. That's not all due to their matchup with the depleted Baltimore Ravens, either; they've actually outperformed expectations on early downs in three of five games.

Additionally, the Seahawks lead the league in early-down passing efficiency, based on my numbers, though that's on low volume as they've skewed heavily toward the run. I don't blame them as it helps keep Darnold in rhythm, preventing the Chaos Darnold plays that have led to calamity in the past, and the formula has worked.

Thanks to those quality underlying numbers, I have this total at 44.2. It seems like a good spot to buy into two offenses that look better than perception thus far.

Dolphins at Browns

Dolphins Moneyline (+132)

Barf.

The Miami Dolphins' vibes are back in the pooper after a failed comeback attempt and public criticism of leadership from Tua Tagovailoa. So, I can understand why the Cleveland Browns are favored here.

Still, this line has the Dolphins' implied win odds at just 43.1% even though they're facing a rookie quarterback in Dillon Gabriel who looked lost on Sunday. I just can't go that far with the downgrades on Miami.

Despite the tumult and injuries, the Dolphins are still 13th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. They've managed to put up 27 and 24 points in two games without Tyreek Hill, much more than I'd have expected when the injury occurred.

This will be a much taller task as the Browns have an elite defense. That defense, though, has been through the ringer, having played three straight games away from Cleveland with one of those games across the pond. They had their second-worst game both against the pass and the run last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and it's possible they'll need more than one week at home to recover from the travel.

My model has the Dolphins favored in this game. Clearly, the market disagrees, and I understand why. But this moneyline is too tempting for me to pass up even with all of the red flags considered.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.