4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 14

As a general sports fan, nothing's better than weeks like this where we have gobs of massively consequential games on the schedule.

It doesn't hurt that those are some of the games showing value in my model this week, too. I'm not opposed to a little extra rooting interest.

Let's dig into which of those games I'm targeting and how, laying out my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds for Week 14.

Best NFL Week 14 Spread and Total Bets

Colts at Jaguars

Colts -1.5 (-112)

We have to be skeptical of the Indianapolis Colts with Daniel Jones playing on a broken leg and the offense starting to slip as a result.

I'm just more skeptical of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Entering Week 14, the Colts are 1st in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings; the Jags are 20th. The Jags' passing offense has been even worse, sitting down in 24th while the Colts are 7th. Passing efficiency is key in the NFL, and the Colts hold a healthy advantage.

That has remained true even with Jones playing banged up. Last week against the Houston Texans, the Colts actually performed above expectations in early-down passing once you adjust for the matchup; they just got throttled on 3rd and 4th down, which is why they scored only 16 points.

The Jaguars have been improved since the Jakobi Meyers trade, and they got Brian Thomas Jr. back last week. I just don't know if that's enough to bridge the gap between these two teams.

As a result of the Jags' underwhelming efficiency, my model has the Colts favored by more than a field goal even with this game in Jacksonville. Maybe that's underselling the concerns around Jones' health. I just think we're getting a big enough discount for me to lay the points.

Bears at Packers

Total Over 44.5 (-114)

My numbers adore the Green Bay Packers' offense, so showing value in an over with them is not a surprise.

They're not as high on the Chicago Bears, though, given the passing offense is yet to hit its stride. I think they'll get there eventually, so with the model giving the green light on an over, I'm in.

Although it has been a rocky ride to get there, the Packers are fourth in numberFire's overall offensive rankings and second through the air. That's while playing most of the year without Christian Watson and Jayden Reed. Watson's playing the best football of his career, and Reed could potentially return this week, helping negate the loss of Tucker Kraft.

The issue the Packers have had is playing down to their opponents. They won't have the luxury of doing so given they trail the Bears in the NFC North. A win would put them back on top.

As for the Bears, I do think they'll be able to do their part on offense. This run game is kicking butt right now, and if they were able to bully the Philadelphia Eagles last week, they can show life this week, too.

Mostly as a result of the Packers' offense, I've got this total well above market. The weather in Green Bay looks great with just 5 mph winds, so I'm happy to trust the model and fire on this over.

Texans at Chiefs

Total Over 42.5 (-102)

These two teams have been under machines, going a combined 7-17 to the under this year.

I think the market is overreacting to those results, creating value in the over for Sunday night's banger.

The Texans' unders make sense, given how elite their defense is. It's worth noting, though, that the offense is starting to hit its stride. Even with a healthy dose of Davis Mills, they're now two percentage points above the league average in schedule-adjusted late-down success rate. They've found a competent combo along the offensive line, and their young skill players are starting to heat up. Add in a healthy C.J. Stroud, and you have a recipe for success.

The Chiefs will be hurting at tackle with both Josh Simmons and Jawaan Taylor banged up, a big concern against this pass rush. Taylor sounds like he'll have a shot to go, though, and guard Trey Smith could return from a one-game absence. They played without Simmons for a stretch earlier this year and were still efficient, so I wouldn't expect this to crater the offense.

Even with a downgrade for the Chiefs' offense baked in, I still have this total at 45.2. That's the lowest I've had for any Chiefs game this year, so I understand why the market has pushed this total down. I just think it has created an opportunity for us to buy the other side.

Commanders at Vikings

Commanders Moneyline (+108)

Obviously, we don't have playoff implications here, so it's a bit less thrilling than the others on the list. I just can't pass up the Washington Commanders as underdogs to a freefalling Minnesota Vikings team.

The market has been too high on the Vikings since J.J. McCarthy's return. This will (assuming he clears protocol) be McCarthy's fifth game since his ankle injury, and it's the fourth time I've shown value in the opposing team's moneyline. One of those was in Week 11 against the Bears when the Bears won as underdogs in Minneapolis.

I'm not even a McCarthy detractor. I liked him (more than I should have, apparently) coming out of college, and it's hard to completely write him off long-term given how young he is. But there's no doubt this team is struggling mightily on offense as things stand.

As for the Commanders, I'm projecting Marcus Mariota as the starter and still have them favored. With the door at least slightly ajar for a Jayden Daniels return, that's tempting. And Mariota has played well enough for me to not regret this bet even if he does ultimately wind up starting.

The Commanders are still playing hard, and they have an efficient offense. Almost any team that checks both of those boxes would be favored for me -- even on the road -- against the Vikings in their current state. Thus, I'm comfortable taking the plus money on the Commanders here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.